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GBP/USD to continue to grind lower

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年11月21日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5125, 予想日: 1日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart
Strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. Th…
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al_dcdemo 2015年12月02日

UPDATE 5: Cable touched below 1.50 on Monday but bounced more than 130 pips from there before it turned back down. Weak Manufacturing and Construction PMI releases didn't help the pair which has been sold on most crosses. Today, 1.50 was properly busted and the low of the day was put in few pips below 1.49. The bounce ran out of steam just above 1.4950. Broken 1.50 level shall now act as a resistance, should the pair get there anytime soon. Some support is seen at April 21th low near 1.4850.

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月09日

UPDATE 6: Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1). The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月15日

UPDATE 7: Yesterday was a relatively volatile Monday for the Cable with the daily range of 120 pips. Today is shaping up to be of a sideways type but we'll see where the current USD buying will stall. 1.5130 - 1.5140 (Weekly Pivot Point, Low Of Day) is the immediate support ahead of 1.5080 - 1.5110 (Previous Day Low, 00's, Daily Support 1). Strong resistance 1.5180 - 1.5210 (Monthly Pivot Point, 00's, Daily Resistance 1) is followed by 1.5230 - 1.5250 (Previous Day High, 50 DMA, Previous Week High, 50's).

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月28日

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier U.K. data, released on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely won't produce any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月29日

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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GBP/USD to stay well supported

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5375, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA, 20 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 day SMA.
Weekly chart
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair travele…
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al_dcdemo 2015年11月19日

UPDATE 4: FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication. Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending trendline drawn off of August and November highs. Initial support is seen near 1.5250.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月22日

UPDATE 5: Sterling lost some 40 pips against the dollar last week. Weekly range was worth a little less than two cents. Price action from Monday to Wednesday was mostly of a sideways type. On Thursday, the pair broke above the recent range (1.515 - 1.525) and rose a good cent before it was capped by 200 DMA. It reversed those gains on Friday as it returned back to the range.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月23日

UPDATE 6: U.K. will report its second estimate of GDP along with few other lower tier indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. The pair is carving out a declining wedge pattern on a daily chart. Pattern support currently runs just below 1.50 while its resistance comes in near 1.54.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月27日

UPDATE 7: Pip-wise, the pair was the loser of the week among seven major currency pairs. It lost a little less than 150 pips while its range was a bit more than that. The pair fell from the opening levels and, after making three consecutive higher lows on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, it looked as though consolidation will extend into Friday. It didn't and the pair closed at the lowest level since April.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月29日

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of data from the U.K. in the week ahead but the PMIs, Bank Stress Test Results and BOE Carney's speech will be in focus. U.S. macroeconomic data released next week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Technically, the pair is flirting with the big 1.50 level. If it gives way, a stop run may extend to 1.4950 before any meaningful pullback.

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GBP/USD to stay around current levels

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年09月25日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5275, 予想日: 2日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 2015年10月13日

UPDATE 5: Cable rallied in the morning and briefly touched above previous week high (1.5383) before it reversed to fall sharply ahead of inflation report. The report came out weak and suspicious price action before that suggests that it might have been leaked. Dovish comments from two BOE officials didn't help the pair either. It then fell all the way to 1.52, nearly 200 pips from the high of the day. It broke back below 200 DMA (1.5320) which shall now act as a resistance. We'll see what UK labour market report will bring tomorrow.

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al_dcdemo 2015年10月17日

UPDATE 6: The pair was the second best performed of the week. Sterling gained a good cent against the dollar with weekly range of more than three cents. Main feature of weekly price action was a sharp reversal from inflation report induced dip. Decent labour market report (wage growth, lower unemployment rate) was enough to send the pair to 1.55 before it consolidated below the big figure.

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al_dcdemo 2015年10月22日

UPDATE 7: Much better than expected September retail sales report (though accompanied by somewhat weaker revisions) just sent Cable to the top of the consolidation between 1.5410 and 1.5510. Confluence of 100 DMA, 1.55 big figure level and 76.4% retracement of the nine-day downswing have been capping the pair during the last six days, but this report may provide enough confidence to the market to at least clear stops above the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 2015年10月23日

UPDATE 8: Even though BOE may end up hiking sooner rather than later and perhaps even before the Fed, the pair fell in the last two days. The decline is a consequence of weakness in the Euro, which fell on the back of very dovish ECB. 100 DMA, which currently runs near 1.55, held the topside well. 50 DMA was broken earlier today and the pair is trying to break below 200 DMA as I type.

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al_dcdemo 2015年10月29日

UPDATE 9: At yesterday's FOMC meeting, Fed signaled that, all things being equal, they will hike in December. Most of the market expected them to maintain their recent neutrality and subsequent repricing sent the Euro nearly two cents lower. Cable fared somewhat better than that as it lost only three quarters of a cent. The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.5350 may prove to be a decent resistance in the near term.

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GBP/USD to remain well bid

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年08月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5725, 予想日: 1日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #200 Day Sma #Corrective Rally #Broadening Formation #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 2015年09月06日

UPDATE 4: Manufacturing Production and BOE meeting from UK; PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be the fundamental highlights in the week ahead. June low (1.5170) is the immediate support before May low (1.5089) and 1.50 big figure level. Should the pair bounce, initial resistance may be found at 1.5250 - 1.5275 (Friday high) and then stronger at 1.5325 - 1.5350 (July low, 200 DMA).

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al_dcdemo 2015年09月11日

UPDATE 5: The theme of the week was the correction after nine-day decline in the previous two weeks. BOE held its second meeting in the new format and, despite recent worries and volatility in global markets, they weren't dovish and that lent the pair additional support as it retraced almost 50% of that downswing. Weekly range has been just over 300 pips and will likely stay that way, save for any fireworks in the US session.

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al_dcdemo 2015年09月12日

UPDATE 6: Apart from eagerly awaited FOMC meeting, in which the Fed may begin to normalize their ultra easy monetary policy, there are three important risk events from the UK on the calendar for the next week: inflation, labour market and retail sales reports. 1.55 is the initial resistance before 1.5580 - 1.5600 (61.8% retracement, 00's) and 1.5675 - 1.5700 (76.4% retracement, 00's). 1.54 and then 1.5350 are the first two support levels.

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al_dcdemo 2015年09月26日

UPDATE 7: BOE speakers (Cunliffe, Carney), lending data, current account, GDP (final revision) and Manufacturing PMI will be the main fundamental events from the UK in the week ahead. The US will report CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. The pair broke September low (~1.5275) on Friday and, despite failure to close below it, that implies some further losses with the near term potential to 1.50.

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al_dcdemo 2015年09月30日

UPDATE 8: Cable recorded nine consecutive days of losses in late August / early September. With eight losing days in a row, the pair is set to repeat the "feat". However, it has started the day pretty well and, unless US traders sell it below the day's opening price, that may mark a beginning of an upswing. Intraday support is seen between 1.5115 and 1.5135 (Previous Week Low, Low Of Day, Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1) and resistance at 1.5185 - 1.5205 (High Of Day, Daily Resistance 1, H1 100 SMA, 00's, Previous Day High).

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