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Kiwi well bid ahead of the FOMC decision

Kiwi remains well bid as we head into the FOMC decision later today. Unless they deliver a dovish or an extremely hawkish surprise, I think that after the decision technicals will come back into focus. This is also supported by a lack of market moving economic data from New Zealand this week.
The pair established a firm foothold above 50 DMA, which I see as the current bull/bear line in sand. Below that, 200 DMA is the first in a series of strong levels all the way down to 0.6950. October high (…
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USD/CHF to continue trending up

Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to the 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. Since then it managed to recoup about three quarters of the losses and regained foothold above both 20 and 50 month SMAs. I'd say 50 month SMA is the line in sand. If it holds above it, that's bullish. Otherwise bearish.
Weekly chart:
The pair continued…
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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair was similar to that in the Euro. The daily range on the FOMC day was even bigger (percentage-wise) and after retesting parity from below, the pair continued to decline, closing just below weekly support (previous resistance) at 0.9750. If the pair is to decline further, strong support will come in a way of 100 DMA near 0.96 and then 200 DMA and 50 DMA near 0.95 big figure level.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Even though EUR/CHF was not standing still, price action in the pair closely mirrored that in EUR/USD, which is not surprising as moves were mostly USD based. Despite temporarily breaking 50, 100 and 200 DMAs, the pair was able to recover and close above all three averages. The pair needs to break and hold below that, if the bears are indeed in control.

foreignexchange avatar

Good Job, do you think it is also possible a trendless area or you think it could have a retracement ?

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks! I see this pair ranging for a while, before continuing up.

WallStreet6 avatar

Great analysis! and quite close to the target:)

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