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NZD/USD to remain bid into new year

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz #Risk Off Spike #Sma Cross
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and pulled back sharply in October. The pullback is the longest since the downtrend …
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Kiwi opened with a small gap up but promplty lost 50 pips to 0.6510 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6550. It went sideways from there.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 7: China released its GDP, industrial production and retail sales data overnight. All three data points slightly missed their respective estimates, which was not entirely unexpected. The numbers were not as bad as feared though and, after a brief sell-off, risk trades rebounded. Having fallen 450 pips since the beginning of the year, Kiwi is poised to close in the green for the second consecutive day and post only the third green day this year. 0.64 looks like a short-term bottom now that the pair has bounced towards 100 DMA (~0.6580) and 50 DMA (~0.6640).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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NZD/USD poised to gain in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Sharp Spike #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 7: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from New Zealand while Chinese Manufacturing PMI will most likely produce little to no impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The pair needed approximately a month and a half to rise 450 pips, from a low (~0.6430) set in mid November to a high (~0.6880) set two days ago. It so far produced three daily closes above the declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs. October high (~0.69) looks quite achievable and a stop run to 0.70 in the first week of the new year seems like a decent possibility.

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