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EURo looks heavy above 1.10

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 18 juillet  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Symmetrical Triangle #D1 Chart #Massacre #Military Coup
Lack of significant selling after Thursday's massacre in Nice suggests that, sadly, this kind of event was largely priced in. Friday's military coup attempt in Turkey led to a more prominent market response but the pair closed the gap early today after the conditions in the country stabilized over the weekend.
Since the Brexit day sell-off, the pair has been carving out a symmetrical triangle with the midpoint approximately at 200 DMA. Support is at 1.10 - 1.1025 and resistance at 1.1150 - 1.117…
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USD/CHF will continue to grind up

al_dcdemo Publié 30 déc comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 1.0125, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Breakout #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Pullback #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Support #EUR/CHF Floor Removal #Monthly Descending Trendline
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 11 jan

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Franc gained nearly 70 pips against the dollar and briefly pierced below 0.99 before surging back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 13 jan

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the franc, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair (USD/CHF) is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near parity. Previous Week High (1.0125) is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 18 jan

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 22 jan

UPDATE 8: ECB left interest rates unchanged at today's meeting. However, there were some strong hints about further policy easing to come in March. President Mario Draghi expressed concerns about downside risks stemming from recent developments in financial and commodity markets and their influence on inflation outlook. Mirroring a sell-off in Euro, Swissie jumped about 100 pips and then added another 20 after an initial pullback. Although violated, strong 1.0125 level held and remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.

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al_dcdemo 25 jan

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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EURo steady to start the week

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 14 déc  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Symmetrical Triangle #Big Figure #H1 Chart #Equilibrium Level
Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025.
In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 (50's, Pattern Bottom, 50 DMA, Weekly Pivot Point, Previous Day Low, Last Thursday Low) and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060 (Pattern Top, Previous Day High, 200 DMA, Prev…
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USD/CHF momentum to continue

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 1.0325, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Breakout #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Momentum #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 3: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 4: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 déc

UPDATE 5: After taking out year's high and trading to the highest level since 2010 last week, the pair pulled back. It traded sideways since the beginning of the week but sold off sharply following the end of yesterday's European session. There was likely some position squaring ahead of today's ECB meeting involved. Macro direction is still to the upside. Shorter term one will depend on the ECB today and the Fed in two weeks but there's always the SNB to support it. If the pullback continues, parity is the level to watch as it coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the last upswing.

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al_dcdemo 10 déc

UPDATE 6: Swissie's daily range of nearly 400 pips on the ECB day was the largest since March and the second largest since the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January. In line with the Euro strength, the pair extended its pullback and convincingly broke below 50 DMA yesterday. It is currently stalling above 100 DMA and 61.8% retracement of the October - November upswing. 200 DMA and 76.4% retracement are found about 150 pips lower. 0.9950 - 1.000 area shall now act as a resistance in the near term.

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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 7: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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USD/CHF rally is gaining strength

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9975, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Parity #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs…
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al_dcdemo 18 nov

UPDATE 4: Swissie broke above the March high (~1.0130) in yesterday's trading and rose to the highest level since SNB abandoned EUR/CHF floor on January 15th. Year's high (~1.0290) is the next target. After that, some resistance is expected into 1.05 level and then at July/August 2010 highs near 1.0650. Support is expected at 1.01 and more at the parity level (1.00).

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al_dcdemo 22 nov

UPDATE 5: Swiss franc was the loser of the week as it lost a cent and a quarter against the dollar. Weekly range was worth a cent and three quarters. The pair is still carried by technical momentum that has been in place since the current upswing began in mid October. The level the pair is trading at is the highest since SNB decided to discontinue EUR/CHF floor in January.

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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 6: As is usual, there's little of note on the calendar for the week ahead coming out from Switzerland. U.S., however, will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair is still in a breakout mode. It closed last week above March high (~1.0125) but below year's high (~1.03). The latter will be watched closely in the coming days.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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Aussie breaks lower

al_dcdemo Publier 21 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Symmetrical Triangle #H1 Chart #Tight Sideways Trading
After trading sideways and ever tighter from the beginning of the week, Aussie broke below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle at the start of today's European session.
Next target is October 14th low (~0.72) and then 50 DMA (~0.7160) but the correction may extend all the way to 0.70 - 0.71. 100 DMA has so far held the topside, reinforced by the trendline drawn off September 5th 2014 and May 14th 2015 highs.
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Yen breaks to the downside

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 15 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Breakdown #Symmetrical Triangle #H1 Chart
Yen has convincingly broken below the symmetrical triangle pattern, that it has been mostly trading in since late August / early September. Dollar weakened across the board yesterday and the pair fell nearly a cent while the daily range was wider than that.
118.25 - 118.50 is the support level to watch and, if it gives way, we may see a retest of the August low just above 116. Area between the pattern bottom (119.75) and its mid point (120) is likely to act as a solid resistance now.
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Yen continues sideways ahead of the NFP

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 2 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Nfp #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Symmetrical Triangle #H1 Chart
Yen continues to consolidate around 120 level which acts as mid point of a symmetrical triangle. Daily range gets smaller every day as the pair moves sideways. This kind of pattern typically breaks when price is in it's last third. Following a breakout there may be potential for up to 300 pips to either side of the pattern. Tomorrow's NFP report may well provide a decent impetus for a breakout.
Support:
119.25 - 119.50 (Daily Support 1, 50's, Previous Day Low, Weekly Support 1, The Pattern Botto…
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Is USD/CHF setting up for a break higher?

al_dcdemo Publié 29 sep comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9875, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Turmoil #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart:
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 high…
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al_dcdemo 26 oct

UPDATE 7: After weak pullback in the first hours of the week, Swissie extended its rally and is set to post eight consecutive day of gains. To the delight of swing traders, these kind of multi day streaks are very frequent in major currency pairs recently. The pair is currently trading a couple of pips below the September high (~0.9840). Break above would flush some stops and open door to the August high (~0.99), near the last big figure before parity (1.00). 0.98 may prove to be the first stronger support on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 30 oct

UPDATE 8: Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now. September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.

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al_dcdemo 31 oct

UPDATE 9: Rather than just continuing higher in the week ahead, I think the pair will retrace some of its recent gains first. 38.2% retracement of the October 15th to 28th rally comes in near 0.9775 and 50.0% retracement above 0.97. 50 DMA is currently running just below but will most likely rise above that in the days ahead. 0.9750 is the potential take off point. If it fails, 100 and 200 DMA will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 nov

Great Analysis : )

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al_dcdemo 2 nov

UPDATE 10: The pair started the week sideways, continuing the tight range from the last week. It is currently trading near 100 month SMA, a level that capped the pair twice earlier this year. Conditions for a sustained break above the level seem to be in place. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction as price action in this contest period conformed well to my expectations and ended with a great outcome.

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USD/CHF remains well supported

al_dcdemo Publié 27 aou comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9575, Date: 1 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Turmoil #Neutral Technicals #Descending Trendline #Supportive Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 12 sep

UPDATE 6: The long awaited September FOMC meeting will finally happen next week, on Thursday. I think the chances for the Fed to begin tightening are quite good. Despite recent worries regarding global markets, this may be best opportunity for the lift-off this year. If it happens and they remain hawkish, the pair will likely retest at least August high near 0.99 and perhaps parity. If not, 50 DMA is the first line of defense ahead of 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 sep

UPDATE 7: There are a couple of economic data points coming up from Switzerland later in the week (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI) but hardly anything market moving. ISM Manufacturing PMI and jobs report from the US are the releases that the pair is waiting for. 50 DMA has been doing its job of supporting the pair ahead of 100 and 200 DMA. Strong resistance zone 0.9850 - 0.9900 remains intact.

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al_dcdemo 30 sep

UPDATE 2: Yesterday's range-bound trading with falling volatility extended into ultra tight consolidation in today's Asian session, which then broke to the upside just before Europe opened for business. The pair climbed some 40 pips from there but is pulling back as I type. 50 DMA is doing its job well and, unless the pair falls below it, near-term technical picture remains bullish.

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WallStreet6 30 sep

Great analysis and good accuracy!

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al_dcdemo 1 oct

Thanks!

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