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Swiss Franc Little Changed

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9716, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Range #Swissy #Snb Shocker #Range Bound #Swiss Peg
The Swiss Franc will continue to trade little changed against the US Dollar. In September the pair closed lower by only 128 pips, with a high to low range of only 245 pips. Furthermore notice how on the daily chart below there have been no major price changes since March of this year. We opened April 2016 at 0.9611 and we're currently quoted only 101 pips higher at 0.9712.
But let's zoom out a bit. Look at the monthly chart below. That giant spikey bar in the middle is the SNB peg removal in Jan…
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USD/CHF Still Range-Bound

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.974, Date: 2 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Swissy #Range Bound
The USD/CHF has stayed remarkably stable for the past few months. Ever since March, prices have been oscillating above and below the current 0.9700 level. We've traded as high as 0.9902 and as low as 0.9257 but ultimately the pair keeps coming back to what appears to be its fair value.
I expect more of the same. In August the USD/CHF closed only 9 pips lower, while in September we saw a 90 pips gain. But in percentage terms, this is below 1%, barely noticeable for a monthly bar. Even on a lower …
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USD/CHF triangle figure

foreignexchange Posted 14 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9692, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #Pattern #Triangle #USD/CHF #Parabolic Sar #Money Flow Index #Linear Regression Slope #Swissy

CHART SCALE: Weekly
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
SUPPORT LEVELS : 0.9892 -0.9989
RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.9132
PAIR ANALYSIS :
The USD/CHF currency pair pattern is in a slighty bullish trend within a triangle pattern as indicated in fig 1 . The figure can suggest a possibility of a retracement considering the consistance of the resistance line (Fig 1 ) . The Linear Regression Slope at 0.0034 , the Parabolic Sar support the slightly bullish tendency. In cons…
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4 Kommentar
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foreignexchange 30 Aug.

Comment 1 - The 27/08/2015 GDP release indicates the improvement of the US economy.
The cyclic technical analysis and the  NFP  forecast could support  the bullish trend for the USD/CHF

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foreignexchange 31 Aug.

Comment 2 - At the opening of  week 30/08/2015 the pair USD/CHF pattern indicates a slightly bullish tendency . This propency can be supported by the positive linear regression slope and the bullish parabolic Sar distribution

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foreignexchange 15 Sep.

Comment 3 - Retail Sales can be considered in a steady state at 0.4%.
GDP reading, Unemployment Rate, goods order and CB Consumer Confidence support the Sales recovery. In this context the pair USD/CHF can shows a bullish behavior for the session.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 25 Sep.

Comment 4 - The great result at GDP Q2 (+ 0.2 on forecast) seems to suggest to facilitate the USD recovery. Also the Michigan consumer sentiment can be a support for the bullish tendency for the USD/CHF

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EUR/HKD Higher Inside the Wedge

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/HKD, Target: 8.5980, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #Federal Reserve #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Snb #Swiss Franc #EUR/HKD #Swissy
The EUR/HKD has been in a strong downtrend last year. On the chart below we can see the EUR/HKD getting sold heavily over 20 percent, from 10.80 to 8.12, as the ECB undertook a large QE program.
But this year things are starting to turn around. Since March 2015, there have been no new lows for the pair. On the contrary, a sequence of higher lows may indicate more gains for EUR/HKD. To be fair, we're also seeing a sequence or lower highs so this situation is not wildly bullish by any measure. Thi…
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USD/CHF Triangle Pattern

foreignexchange Posted 21 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.955, Date: 3 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #Pattern #Triangle #USD/CHF #Money Flow Index #Linear Regression Slope #Swissy #Slightlu Bullish


CHART SCALE: Weekly
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
SUPPORT LEVELS : 0.95512 - 0.97192 - 1.00793
RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.90807
PAIR ANALYSIS :
The USD/CHF currency pair pattern is in a slighty bearish trend within a triangle pattern. The figure can suggest a possibility of a retracement considering the consistance of the support line (Fig 1 ) . The Linear Regression Slope at - 0.0001 , the Parabolic Sar, can support a slightly bearish tendency before the pos…
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foreignexchange 2 July

Comment 3 - KOF Leading Indicator at 89.66 points. The Swiss economy probably correlated with the improvement in cost of the franc  seem not bright. Even the Greek situation weighs on the Swiss franc. So it is possible to have a  bullish recovery for the pair.

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foreignexchange 21 July

Comment EURO 2 - The Greek agreement seems to facilitate a EU pairs correlated improvement.  The IMF has been engaging in a sort of battle against its European partners in the Troika, leaking a memorandum in which it argues that Greece’s debt can be unsustainable and implying that the agreement could fail.

Actually the market indecision seems to suggest to hedge the positions in consideration of a  better understanding of the politics decisions. 

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foreignexchange 27 July

Comment  6    - The Fed President Janet Yellen seems to suggest the possibility  that the central bank may raise interest rates  if the economy were to continue to improve as expected. This possibility with the release at 29/07/2015 could support a USD recovery.        This could also facilitate a bearish retracement of the anti-correlated pairs like EUR-CHF-GBP

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foreignexchange 31 July

Comment 7 - At the meeting of the FOMC, the Fed has apparently given no change regarding the monetary policy. The interest rate remains at 0.25%, this can be analyzed as a possible neutral on chart analysis.  In consideration of the American economy scenario it is possible to forecast a slightly bullish tendency.

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foreignexchange 1 Aug.

Comment 8 - At the closing of the market at the 31/07/2015 the chart analysis of the USDCHF shows the great accuracy with the forecast pattern. As indicated in fig the difference between the forecast and the pair level price it is compatible with the volatility of the pair.

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Swiss Franc Overbought

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9332, Date: 1 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Swiss Franc #Swissy
The Swiss Franc is overbought. The currency pair (USD/CHF) has been mirror imaging the Euro's gains during April, falling by 395 pips while the EUR/USD rallied by 500 points.
In my opinion, these gains are excessive. On the fundamental perspective, the Swiss authorites want to keep the value of the Franc down. While they have let the currency appreciate against the Euro after abandoning the 1.20 peg, they still actively intervene in the market. This is obvious when looking at a chart of the EUR/…
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fxsurprise8 29 May

As expected, the gains for the Swissy, and consequently losses for USD/CHF, didn't last. The month of May initially saw an extended move lower to 0.9071 but this was quickly countered by buyers. The resulting rally hit a high of 0.9542. From here we fell back down to close the week at 0.9400.

I will need this downmove to continue for about 70 pips to hit my target. The momentum of the past few days is on my side. Plus, I expect the Euro to break 1.10 and head higher on Monday. This may translate into more CHF gains and a further decline in the USD/CHF exchange rate.

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USD/CHF above parity

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 11 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #USD/CHF #Parity #Swissy #Weekly Resistance #Mma
USD/CHF has broken above parity this morning. It briefly stalled around 100 MMA and Weekly Resistance 2, but now appears to be breaking higher as it flirts with 1.01 level. It seems that there won't be any heavier selling until closer to year's peak prices above 1.02 and year's high at 1.0294.
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USD/CHF flirts with parity

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 10 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #USD/CHF #Snb #Parity #Swissy #CHF Cap
It's not two months since SNB removed CHF cap, which caused it to appreciate nearly 30% against the Dollar at the time, and USD/CHF is already flirting with parity and levels seen in early January. Strong Dollar, negative CHF rates and rumours of SNB buying the dips in EUR/CHF are cited as reasons for the rally. If parity goes, then some resistance may come at: 100 MMA (1.0067), January 12 low (1.0118), Yearly high (1.0294).
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2 Kommentar
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VictoriaVika 17 Mar.

Well done, good analysis

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al_dcdemo 17 Mar.

Thanks, the levels really should have been visible on the chart, but I have them on separate platform.

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EURo Rally Puts me at Number Six!

fxsurprise8 Veröffentlicht 28 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Rally #USD/CHF #Swissy
The single currency rallied over 50 pips today. Durable Goods is the US fell by 1.3% in September, way below the +0.4% gain the market expected. Core Durable Goods Orders also fell by 0.2% versus a median forecast for a gain of 0.5 percent. The disappointing results immediately lead to a sell-off in the Dollar.
The EUR/USD rallied from 1.2708 to a high of 1.2764 and the Swissy fell from 0.9500 to 0.9445. Since then both pairs have retraced somewhat. The anti-Dollar rally pushed me to the number …
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Small Gains for the USD/CHF

fxsurprise8 Posted 27 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9511, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Swissy
The Swissy had a remarkable September, rallying over 350 pips. But after spiking to a high of 0.9686 on October 6th, prices fell and we are currently trading almost 200 off the highs. The currency pair is now stuck in wedge. While this is usually a continuation pattern, I think in November we will see only limited gains. Since December is traditionally a slow month, the start of the New Year may bring a continuation of the rally in full force.
I am betting on small gains for the Swissy to 0.9511…
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