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USD/CHF to stay in range

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9457, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Support #Trendline #USD/CHF #Range #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Weak Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 1 June

Great job! Congrats! On the bull's eye!

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al_dcdemo 1 June

Thanks! Yep, it's looking good. :)

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week strongly, adding 30 pips in the Asian session and so far 50 pips in the European session. 0.95 level acts as a decent barrier and the pair will need support from the US data if it wants to trade back above it. It's few minutes till the end of the forecast period and the pair will end up close to the target. I'm very happy with the analysis as the pair nicely conformed to my expectations.

Eberhardt122 avatar
Eberhardt122 4 June

thanks for sharing the advice Al!

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al_dcdemo 4 June

Thanks! But it really is not meant as an advice, it's just a view of what I perceive as likely to happen. All standard disclaimers apply. :)

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Swissie pares yesterday's gains

al_dcdemo Updated 23 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Support #USD/CHF #Snb #Range #Swissie #200 Dma
I was away all day today, but the development that immediately catches the eye is a complete reversal of yesterday's gains in Swissie. The pair rocketed when SNB announced that there will be fewer exemptions from negative interest rates. Haven't catched up on today's news yet, but it isn't necessary to associate every price move with a fundamental catalyst.
From purely technical perspective, the pair fell because traders were more eager to sell it than buy it (whatever their reasons). The pair r…
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USD/CHF up towards parity

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9968, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Bullish #USD/CHF #Uptrend #Pullback #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Turnaround
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: Both technicals and shorter-term fundamentals point to further losses in the week ahead, although some sort of pullback and/or re-test of pre-NFP levels is not unlikely in the very short term. First stronger support on the downside comes in at October 15th 2014 low and February 2nd high near 0.9350.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: Even though SNB removed 1.20 cap, USD/CHF returned to the old habit of mirroring EUR/USD movement, while EUR/CHF is trading around 1.05 with declining volatility. The pair opened the week near 0.95 and, after it failed to follow through on post-NFP gains, reversed higher and climbed all the way to (and through) 0.98 level to close the week just below that. Weekly candle looks bullish - long real body with the close above March 31 high and near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: If the pair won't continue to rally on Monday then there will likely be some consolidation, probably at least until US Retail Sales report on Tuesday or perhaps even until ECB meeting on Wednesday. Initial support comes in at March 31 high near 0.9750 and then some more closer to 0.9650. If 0.98 goes, there may not be much resistance before 0.9980 and parity.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Percentage-wise the pair was the second best performer on the week. Again, price action closely resembled that of EUR/USD, but due to slow slide in EUR/CHF, the downtrend in the pair was more pronounced. Even though it didn't manage to break below April 3 low (0.9480) it closed below 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Long weekly candle that almost engulfs previous week's one and closes near the low also looks bearish.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: There's few CHF related events in the week ahead (Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Expectations) but they are not expected to impact prices much. Given continuing slide in EUR/CHF and imminent break lower in USD/CHF, there's risk that the SNB might start to intervene (verbally or otherwise) in the markets. If the pair convincingly breaks 0.95, stronger demand may come in at weekly support near 0.9360.

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USD/CHF to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9655, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Technicals #Rally #USD/CHF #Correction #Parity #Swissie #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to the 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. Since then it managed to recoup about three quarters of the losses and regained foothold above both 20 and 50 month SMAs. I'd say 50 month SMA is the line in sand. If it holds above it, that's bullish. Otherwise bearish.
Weekly chart:
The pair continued…
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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair was similar to that in the Euro. The daily range on the FOMC day was even bigger (percentage-wise) and after retesting parity from below, the pair continued to decline, closing just below weekly support (previous resistance) at 0.9750. If the pair is to decline further, strong support will come in a way of 100 DMA near 0.96 and then 200 DMA and 50 DMA near 0.95 big figure level.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Even though EUR/CHF was not standing still, price action in the pair closely mirrored that in EUR/USD, which is not surprising as moves were mostly USD based. Despite temporarily breaking 50, 100 and 200 DMAs, the pair was able to recover and close above all three averages. The pair needs to break and hold below that, if the bears are indeed in control.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Good Job, do you think it is also possible a trendless area or you think it could have a retracement ?

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! I see this pair ranging for a while, before continuing up.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! and quite close to the target:)

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USD/CHF ascent may become troublesome

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9310, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Blip #Swing Low #Weekly Resistance #Underwater Longs
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to the 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or almost 30% of its value before the announcement. Since then it managed to recoup about two thirds of the losses and regained foothold above both 20 and 50 month SMAs. I'd say 50 month SMA is the line in the sand. If it manages to hold above it, that's bullish. Otherwise bearish.
Weekly chart:
After strong r…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

As anticipated, the pair stalled ahead of 200 day SMA. Despite various rumours about SNB, including that they are on the bid aiming at 1.05 - 1.10 range in EUR/CHF, the pair slowly drifted lower, but then managed to close the week roughly unchanged. Whether this is just a pause in an uptrend or a near-term top remains to be seen, hopefully next week's price action will give us the answer.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

Swiss Franc was the weakest among currencies this week as it lost nearly a percent compared to the second weakest currency - the Dollar. After it retested the lows on Monday, it was slowly grinding higher and then closed the week right on 200 DMA. The next strong resistance to overcome is October 15 2014 low (0.9360) and if it goes, then there little to stop the pair until closer to 0.95.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

After successfully breaking above 200 DMA and 0.9360 resistance, the pair has added additional two cents and traded up to 100 DMA, breaking 50 DMA and 0.95 level in the process. On Friday, however, it reversed strongly, wiping out more than half of its weekly gains, posting outside reversal (aka bearish engulfing) on the daily chart. At this point it appears too strong to be just a normal pullback, but with SNB supposedly on the bid, everything is possible.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

Last week's outside day reversal proved to be a fake one. The pair erased most of Friday's losses on Monday and then, after some sideways action over the next two days, broke to new marginal highs on Thursday. Currently, 76.4% retracement of the SNB decline at 0.9540 and December 16 low at 0.9550 are capping the pair. If it manages to break higher, then there's little resistance on the chart until closer to 0.9700 - 0.9750.

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