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AUD USD Continuation downtrend

scramble Posted 25 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8789, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trend #AUD/USD #Breakouts #Supports And Resistances
The instrument shows me an important downtrend after the failure in recent months when price lost parity and also the dynamic support (dotted trend-line) near 0.94:
In the picture also notable how market tested the gray rectangled area to meet new supply and gain speed to reach the 0.8660 low. In recent weeks we see another bounce right to the lower side of gray rectangle into 0.94 area which is clearly seen as important old resistance / support and history tells this area has the power to push …
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3 Kommentar
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xau 12 June

Well, I can't disagree with analysis, tho price made nice flag for upside continuation, what's your res levels in bullish scenario? 1.012? 

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scramble 13 June

yes actually the scenario i predicted is ending in failure. bullish scenario? not considered atm.... will check it! eventuallu.... parity will be kind good tgt ;)

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scramble 13 June

update: daily chart clearly shows my prediction failed. price in these conditions can't reach my target in 2 weeks!

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GBP/USD continuation upward

scramble Posted 22 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.698, Date: 2 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trend #Continuation #Historycal Levels #Supports And Resistances
In recent months market pushed this instrument to reach an old area, visited on September 2005 as support and later on August 2009 used as resistance. Precisely, the spot lies on 1.7042 as clearly seen in next chart (monthly TF).
Analyzing it deeper, I find some important resistances broken and even already confirmed as supports: see next chart with following explanation.
[list=1][/list]…
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scramble 6 May

Finally market conquered today the 1.69 area after some consolidation in 1.68. The move at the moment is not as steep as I expected but there is a good potential to see the 1.70 area visited soon. Could appear some more bearish pressure at these levels, but not yet. Will update at the end of current week to see how price will develop and close.

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scramble 13 May

The move to the upside slowed a bit, and price is stuck within 1.70 and 1.68 caused by increasing bearish pressure (expected). Ironically, price topped at my predicted level. On daily chart attached i drawn a quick update on what could be price developing, with a quick test of 1.675 last consensus area. Given the tight distance left to this contest expiry, hopes to see price near my level are still good, but not as much as when I published the analysis.

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scramble 18 May

Market as expected tested 1.6750 previous resistance area, showing a 2days bullish bounce. In the attached chart is where I expect price to be in next 2 weeks, so more probable a slow consolidation between 1.6770 and 1.6900 but I don't expect any strong downside to come in next 2 weeks.

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scramble 24 May

As expected last week, price is somehow entering a consolidation in this area between 1.6750(70) and 1.6900. In the attached daily chart, the red line right near 1.69 tells the story about this prediction: only a strong breakout straight to 1.7040 (or more) will give me the opportunity to see price near my target next week. More likely, market will be revisiting again 1.6750 and eventually bounce back to 1.6850-80.

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scramble 2 June

Price was near 1.6750 on contest expiry time, about 235pips far from my target, proving me wrong. Happy anyway price touched my level.

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EUR/GBP weakness expected

scramble Posted 20 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8038, Date: 2 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trend #EUR/GBP #Historycal Levels #Supports And Resistances #Confirmation Of Trend #Trend Breakouts
This instrument is showing uncertainty on both directions.
In this first chart, I see price trying to consolidate the 0.82 area, after a quick bounce from historical law area between 0.78 and (indeed) 0.82. To analyze better these levels, I had to decrease zoom and watch on older price action.
With blue rectangle, I enlightened what I consider as a key: long time ago (left side of chart) there was a strong bearish momentum, which required huge time before market was finally able to conquer the 0…
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scramble 6 May

Price went almost nowhere since I published the analysis, and still there are problems near 0.82 support. Could be a consolidation before a further bounce up in next weeks, but I still believe there will be an important move down to visit 0.80 and even lower during May. this week closing price will be quite important, so I will update with charts at the end of this week.

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scramble 13 May

As expected, last week told the story, with a total failure of 0.82 and 0.8170 supports (see attached weekly chart). At this point the move to my predicted area is possible, and even more, I expect market to test lower side of it visiting even the higher 0.79 area.

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scramble 18 May

Friday close was 0.8141 confirming the 0.82 and 0.8170 supports invalidated in weekly charts. In the attached daily chart we see the more probable price area by 2nd of June: only a quick move back above the 0.82 could invalidate this scenario while, unless a good downward acceleration in next 2 weeks (my expectations), we should see price ranging between 0.8050 and 0.8150.

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scramble 24 May

Market was unable to conquer again the 0.82 so kept selling the instrument. On friday the move down was stopped but as shown in the attached daily chart, the overall conditions are definetly bearish and nearest tech support is lower between 0.7980 - 0.8020 which in my opinion will be visited in the middle of next week. On the upside, the 0.8150 should cap any bullish attempt, but in this actual situation I wonder more about the 0.80 technical and psychological support: will it hold and contain the move?

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scramble 2 June

I consider the analysis right, what went wrong has been price bouncing on 0.8080 which was not in my expectations, and closed about 80pips far from my target.

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