Daytrader21的博客

Avatar

EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
阅读全文
翻译为 英语 显示原始
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: Even though we had quite a strong rally above previous swing high at 0.7400 we should see a fade back as the structure of current up leg looks very thin and we need to fill in the gap. First level of support is at 0.7220 a break and a close below it should see further downside.

留言
Avatar

Kiwi COT Extreme

NZD/USD has broken key support after support level and it seems now that the bearish trend is already oversold. We can't rule ot another retest of the big round number 0.6500 before going up again. The COT report is already warning us that a reversal or at least a bounce should happen because during this last leg down the commercials have become net buyers and they have been accumulating a lot of contracts as the COT report has been moving to extreme levels again (see Figure 1[/
阅读全文
翻译为 英语 显示原始
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: We had another wave of selling pressure this past week and kiwi found support at big round number 0.6500 which I think will produce a bounce. Not only the seasonality points for a bounce but also the technicals and the COT data. First level of resistance stands at 0.6650

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2. The market has finally found some support at big  round number 0.6500 and we saw 2 rally to push higher making each time HH and LH  which suggest we're under accumulation conditions. This is good for my forecast and coming week we should see another attempt towards 0.6680 and ultimately a break above previous week high for more upside pressure

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: Unfortunately we have sold of and erased previous rally towards 0.6700. The market structure still favors the bulls as we're still above key support level and round number 0.6500 which should hold for now and see a bounce. First level of support remain previous week's high at 0.6730

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 4: Kiwi has posted 3 consecutive weeks of price gains and the psychological number 0.6500 is holding up the price quite well and as per my predictions we should see further upside in coming weeks. Next week we should retest and break previous week high at 0.6740, however we'll need a weekly  closing above that figure for further upside.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 5: We're back at around the big figure and support level 0.6500. since we couldn't close below this figure the bulls are still in control. First level of resistance comes in at 0.6620 , a break and a close above this figure should see more upside ahead

留言
Avatar

EUR/GBP Range Mode

Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
阅读全文
翻译为 英语 显示原始
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: I appears we're running a Flat structure in wave IV this means that we should see the market start moving from here to the downside in a 5 waves of smaller degree. Last week high should act as resistance for now at around the 0.7400 level. Support for next week stands at around the 0.7300 level.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update we indeed moved lower and made a flat structure. Next week should be more range bound action after the recent sell of. Resistance stands at 0.7300 level and support at 0.7200 level

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 4: As expected the market has turned lower and right now we're right below 0.7200 former support level which will act as resistance for now. For next week there is still more range action in play before any big move. Support stands at 0.7120 previous weeks low.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 5: As expected we managed this week to get below previous weeks low to trigger the stops below that level. As expected the 0.7120 was also taken out and we have cleared the road to our next big target which is the big figure 0.7000, however our target is just few pips above it at 0.7041, so we should see some range action around this levels next weeks

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 6: After we hit last week our target the market has bounced a mere 100 pips putting in place a temporary bottom. This move looks corrective and should fade away. We already hit resistance level at 0.7200 from where price should begin trading lower

留言
Avatar

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have completed a 5 wave move Elliott Wave suggest we should expect an ABC correction but this should push us back all the way towards the levels of wave 4 which will be quite a big downside move. …
阅读全文
翻译为 英语 显示原始
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: USD/JPY has been contained inside a very tight range between 119.00 resistance zone and 117.00 support zone and also this area is the middle of a much wider range zone (see Figure 2).  Usually it's normal to consolidate in this region however based on Elliot wave we may have just completed a double zig-zag and we can expect the market to start breaking to the upside

WallStreetBlog avatar

Interesting!

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: 117.50 is a strong support, however due the fact it was tested for so many times it may be the case it will not hold anymore, in which case my forecast will be wrong. However there is a little chance if we gap to the upside on Sunday at the market open we may be heading back towards 118.00.

Metal_Mind avatar

Yeah i see your point of wiew even though eliot waves are not my preferate form of analysis. Me to see it at that level. This one could be tight.Cheers

Durden avatar
Durden 1 3月

good job 

留言
Avatar

Cable Trendline Broke, But Upside Move Not Over Yet.

Although cable broke the trendline from that originates from the 1.4800 low the current upside move is not over yet. Based on Elliott Wave analysis we have only completed 4 wave so in order for the cycle to be completed we need a final spike up above 1.6260 resistance level(see figure 1). Also at 1.6100 we had a first failure retest of the trendline, market reaction was very mild and currently the market is rallying strong from the 1.5860 support level suggesting sellers are very weak. Also we h…
阅读全文
翻译为 英语 显示原始
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 11月

Update 1: As expected it seems the breakout of the 1.5880 support level was a false breakout as the momentum has picked up since than and we're now retesting the resistance level of 1.6220. The current up leg that started from 1.5880 has took shape of an 5 wave rally so I'm expecting for now a retrace all the way down to the wave 4 base around 1.6100. We should see an ABC correction

Decebal avatar
Decebal 25 11月

Very good!!

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 11月

Update 2: We already hit our 1.6370 target, GBPUSD stopped right at that level and for now is capping the upside movement, but the wave E is not finished just yet. we still need a final spike up. Next resistance is 1.6450 from where I'm expecting price to finally start selling of

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: Right now the market seems ranging around our 1.6370 target and as the 5 wave sequence has already completed I'm expecting now an ABC correction before any upside movement

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 12月

Update 4: As I said the five wave sequence completed at 1.7460 from here on we are in the earlier stage of an ABC correction. Currently wave A is developing and I'm expecting it to find support at 1.6200 round number which previously acted as strong resistance and now I'm expecting to hold as support.If this level can hold that next wave will move again towards the high to retest the 6370 level.

留言