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GBP/USD fell nearly 300 pips so far this week. Yesterday's Brexit headlines and today's (leaked?) weaker than expected CPI inflation figures for June were among the drivers on the GBP side of equation. Couple that with stronger USD since Fed Powell's testimony. 1.30 is the immediate support ahead of 50% retracement of the 2016 - 2018 upswing near 1.2930.
al_dcdemo's Blog
NZD/USD jumps on signs of inflation
NZD/USD jumped some 50 pips in the morning after RBNZ's measure of core inflation came in at a 7-year high. That came after official inflation data for the second quarter showed a slight miss on expectations, but still solid. NZD/USD rallied off of 0.67 area twice but further upside won't come easy without RBNZ moving into hawkish direction.
GBP/USD supported since Friday afternoon
U.S. dollar continues the sentiment from Friday afternoon, trading weaker today. GBP/USD sold off that day and then reversed just as strongly. The pair is contained in a three-cent range, between 1.3050 - 1.3350. Direction of the breakout will depend on this week's U.K. economic data that may either soldify or weaken the case for BOE rate hike in August.
AUD/USD drifting lower still
AUD/USD has been drifting lower since the beginning of this year. RBA is determined to maintain cash rate at accommodative levels until further notice while the Fed is hiking, which is keeping the pair from rallying. Each attempt at a bounce has fizzled out at two or so cents. 61.8% retracement of the 2016 - 2018 range is the level to watch on the downside.
EUR/USD in the middle of two-month range
EUR/USD ended three-week advance this week, after it topped out ahead of 1.18 on Monday. The pair bounced strongly on Friday and closed the week bang in the middle of the two-month range between 1.15 and 1.185. Technicals and fundamentals are in USD's favour. I think eventual break below 1.15 is in the cards but may take some more churning in the current range.
USD/CHF follows USD/JPY higher
U.S. dollar strength continues. After USD/JPY break to the upside on Wednesday, USD/CHF followed yesterday. The pair rose above parity level and is currently testing year's high near 1.0050. It's pretty much open space above that with big figures as resistance levels. A break lower in EUR/USD would be helpful, given the correlation between euro and franc.
Hawkish hike by BOC trumped by U.S. dollar buying
Bank of Canada hiked its overnight rate to from 1.25% to 1.50% yesterday. Rate statement was more hawkish that many expected and the initial reaction was to buy Canadian dollars, with USD/CAD quickly testing support at 1.3060. However, a strong round of broad U.S. dollar buying followed, which took the pair 150 pips higher.
USD/JPY resilient despite U.S. trade wars escalation
U.S. unveiled new tariffs on China overnight, which caused a sell off in risk assets. China seems reluctant to take concrete counter-measures as they apparently don't want to make things worse. USD/JPY fell about 50 pips overnight but has already recovered and is approaching yesterday's high near 111.30. A break above would see some buy stops triggered and put 112 - 112.5 area into view.
AUD up on USD weakness and better risk mood
U.S. dollar continues to be sold for the second day after U.S. labour market report on Friday, the main beneficiary today being the Australian dollar. China does not want to escalate trade wars just yet and that's another supportive factor. AUD/USD is nearing 0.75 level (also 50 DMA) where some resistance is likely.
GBP/USD closes strongly as politicians agree on Brexit
Late on Friday, U.K. politicians appear to have reached some kind of an agreement on their Brexit stance. GBP/USD greeted that with a 20-pip jump, we'll see if we get any follow-through on Monday. 1.3315 is the initial resistance, expect some short-covering above that. 1.3150 - 1.32 area should now hold, if bulls are to remain in control.