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Daily Fractal Pattern suggest further downside in August

Jignesh Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5158, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Support #Trendline #Gbpusd #Fibonacci #Reistance #Elliottwave
The GBPUSD has been quite bullish since bottoming mid April. As of late, however, the pair has been struggling to make any significant weekly advances.
There is a pattern that has already been seen on the daily chart, that has now appeared in fractal form on the 4H chart. On the daily it marked a point of turn in price, and the expectation will be the same for 4H, which can trigger further bearish price action in the month of August.
Levels
1.5690 - July 29 Spike high ** Key resistance and patte…
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3 Commentaires
WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2 aou

I'm also anticipating the cable turning into bearish trend, but first I thought it was going to appreciate.  But maybe you're right that the bullish sentiment is running out.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 2 aou

I agree WallStreet6 .. I've been long this pair for over 3 weeks now.  Was expecting a lot more upside than we've seen.  Looking for an pullback towards resistance early week and then the bearish trend to start.  A break above recent highs would invalidate my wave count.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 7 aou

This week we've had 2 big moves in the GBPUSD. First was after a weaker than expected MPC Vote, it triggered a nice selloff in the pair, and then surprisingly today after a weak NFP number, it caused another sell off.  Currently we are trading at the daily trendline, which has provided some support for the pair.  Will be looking to see if the pair catches a bounce here, before it continues selling off next week.

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Trade Idea - EURHKD Nears Support Confluence

Jignesh Publier 1 juillet  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Fibonacci Levels #Elliottwave #Eurhkd
The larger term view point in the EUR pairs in general certainly has a bearish outlook, but focusing on the price action to start the week, we can see that the leg to the upside carried strong momentum.
In Elliott Wave, moves in the market are usually classified in 3 or 5 waves, which provides reason to believe another leg higher to a deeper retracement can be seen before bearish momentum resumes.
The 4H chart of EURHKD shows the pair near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, just ahead of spike support s…
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USDCHF Bouncing off Key Channel

Jignesh Publié 30 juin comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9720, Date: 3 de août, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Usdchf #Channel #Fibonacci Level
Overview
USDCHF has been in contained within two channels, but in the past few weeks we have seen it make a bullish break.
Even on a pullback the pair has managed to stay supported from the previous level, given the outlook of a bullish nature
Levels
0.9335 - April Close
0.9480 - 38.2 Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
0.9720 - March Close
0.9227 - 61.8% Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
Figure 1 - Daily USDCHF - two potential channels, price bouncing between both
Figure 2 - Price respecting channels, until recent bull…
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Jignesh 28 juillet

The pair has completed an ABC structure to support at 9538.  so far it has once again turned bullish up towards the daily 4h channel pointed out.  Expecting a pull back here, before once again turning bullish.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 30 juillet

The channel posted in the above comments broke this week, and that was followed by a strong push higher from a hawkish FOMC statement yesterday.  Today we've seen the pair touch the target level of 9720, and that level has acted as resistance for the pair.  Anticipating that this level holds tomorrow and offers a bit of a pull back as the US Dollar index has reached some key resistance.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 2 aou

The week has opened with very little movement in the USD pairs.  Some clues can be found from the metals which have been selling off since the open.  Anticipating the majors to see some USD strength going into the London open at the very least, and possibly the New York Open.  However not anticipating any recent highs/lows to be broken, and with the pair marking an absolute high of 0.9718, it is not likely it will hit targets, however there is a strong possibility of it coming within 25 pips or so lower than the target.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 3 aou

With just 3 hour left to the target time, the pair is starting to make a bullish break out of it's 15m bollinger bands.  The average ATR for the pair is about 18.5 pips per hour, so it is able to come very close to targets based on time and average price movements.  The overhead resistance and previous highs should cap the price as it starts heading into 0.9710-0.9720

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 3 aou

although the price was moving higher, lack of volatility prevented from exceeding 9683 at the time of close.  In hindsight, I could have put targets slightly lower as chances of it closing right at resistance are not always likely.  Either way the targets came close the price and analysis did show the right path. 

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AUDUSD approaching Daily Support

Jignesh Publier 1 juin  dans #Dukat blog #Support #Audusd #Fibonacci Levels #Candlesticks
AUDUSD has been hit quite a bit as of late, Almost as bad as the NZDUSD which is the one of the few USD pairs that has broken to new lows.
Today we see the Aussie test the 88.6% fibonacci level on the daily chart, as well as major daily support at 7588. We may see the pair get bid here. A break below, can open up the downside.
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USDJPY Building up Stop Losses below 118.85

Jignesh Publier 15 mai  dans #Dukat blog #Usdjpy #Support #Trendline #Fibonacci Levels #Candlesticks #Dukat Contest #Targets
The USDJPY appears to be trading sideways for most of the year. The daily chart below, shows that 118.85 has become significant support as price has bounced from that level several times
Often in a range type environment, we can measure an equal distance from the high of the range to the low, to determine a possible target. The above chart has done exactly that to determine an approxiamete target in the case of a bearish break to be at 116.16.
The chart also shows a downward trendline in play as…
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GBPCAD Forming a Daily Doji against it's 50 Back

Jignesh Publier 12 mai  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Trendline #Channel #Fibonacci Levels #Gbpcad #Candlesticks
The British Pound has rallied quite strong over the last few weeks. The major catalyst was the elections last week, we saw some follow through with decent data coming from Great Britain this week.
The rally has caused the GBPCAD to come back and test the 50%Fib of the last leg down. We are starting to see the strong momentum die down a bit, which can be seen as Daily Doji in the making.
Other Pound pairs have made some significant breaks during this same time period. The GBPNZD for example has b…
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AUDUSD 1H Trendline on the verge of breaking

Jignesh Publier 11 mai  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Trendline #Fibonacci #Channel #Elliottwave
The AUDUSD has recently shown a major channel break on it's 4H chart, suggesting a further bearish continuation.
The chart below shows the break, as well as an Elliott Wave count that suggests the structure from 02 April Lows has been completed
So far, we can see that after a brief channel break, the pair came back up to retest the 76.4% Fibonacci Level and has once again broken lower. As well, we can see another retest of the bottom of the channel which was also met with a bearish rejection.
Wi…
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EURNZD - 1H Possibly turning over

Jignesh Publier 7 mai  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Wave Count #Eurnzd #Channel #Trendless #Wave Analysis
In follow up to my previous post EURNZD Reversal Continues with Strong Momentum
The pair has now reached the resistance area as outlined in the previous blog post.
The weekly chart, as indicated below, shows that the larger trend remains to the downside. These levels can offer some decent Risk to reward setups for short scalps.
The 1 Hour wave count shows a double correction has completed to the upside. A daily close below the Daily S/R level indicated on the chart would provide stronger …
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GBPUSD Making a Bullish Breakout ahead of Elections

Jignesh Publier 5 mai  dans #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Technicals #Support #Trendline #Gbpusd #Channel
The British Pound has made a bullish break against the greenback in the last 1 week period. This may be on the back of some speculative positioning ahead of the election being held in the UK this week.
From a technical perspective, the pair is still largely looking bearish after breaking a significant Monthly Trendline as indicated in the Monthly chart below.
The pair was seen retesting that monthly trendline once again last week, with a sharp rejection. The Daily chart below shows strong sellin…
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3 Commentaires
CommunitySupport avatar
CommunitySupport 5 mai

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 mai

Really hard playing GBP around UK General Election as there is no directional beat so far, even thought the seasonal and the election cycle say down, I think it may want to go up, at least that is what short term price structure says. Most likely tomorrow's NFP report will be the catalyst for a break either side.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 7 mai

Agreed Daytrader21 The rejection from the Monthly Trendline would indicate bearish, at the same time the bullish break from the daily channel gives a different view.  I'm watching 1.5550, I think that level is pivotal to the upside if we see a breach.  Downside trades, I think there's better oppurtunties in pairs like GBPJPY

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EURNZD Remains bearish against it's monthly Trendline

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur EUR/NZD, Cible: 1.5717, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Carry Trade #Eurnzd #EUR/NZD #Monthly Trendline
Similar to my previous analysis in last months contest, the pair is still showing the same setup and looks to be bearish
There is a Major monthly trendline in place, as well as a daily channel formation, the pair has yet to break any of these significant technical levels on a weekly or monthly basis. The Doji this month further reaffirms the upside momentum has subdued.
Levels
1.8385 - Previous High and invalidation area
1.6226 - Major Resistance
1.5850 - Major Support/Resistance
1.5600 - Weekly…
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Jignesh 10 nov

The pair is still consolidating withing the daily channel.  Last week the price maxed out at 1.6275 which marked the top of the channel, meaning a new wave structure may have started and in progress.  Will be watching for a sharp down side move within the coming 2 weeks.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

EURNZD finally broke out of it's range to make a monthly low.  The previous comment proposing a potential new wave structure after touching 1.6275 is favored.  Last week we saw the 61.8% of the last leg up (1.58064) holding price, however the week's open gapped lower and closed a daily candle below it, negating the presumed buying pressure.  The next level to the downside is 1.5725 which marks last week's low, with a trendline near by below (as indicated in charts).

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 27 nov

The pair has been makig violent swing in the range of 300 pips roughly in both directions, giving the view that we may be in a temporary range.  In tomorrow's early Asian session, we have the ANZ Business Confidence which may act as a catalyst for trend development, on continuation.  For now the pair hovers around targets, but is quite volatile

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Jignesh 28 nov

EUR CPI Flash estimate is due in the UK session today which can be a trigger for some further dowside as the pair hovers around the 1.5900 mark.  1.5920 marks the 61.8% retracement of the last leg on the 1H which should offer resistance.  Earlier Business confidence number had little impact on the pair.

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Jignesh 1 déc

With less than a day left, EURNZD has gapped up to start off the week, but as per the 4H chart, the upside is limited.  The 200MA has done well in capping price to the upside, above that is the important 1.6015 level as well.  To the downside there are several support zones the pair would have to break in order to reach targets, but the possibility certainly remains

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