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Swissie to extend rally in January

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0375, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Monetary Policy Divergence #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Line #Six Year High
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. The U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as the U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely watched.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Aussie to remain supported in December

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Line #Bull/bear Line #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Having topped out near 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing in April, the pair sold off to the long-term trendline, drawn off of 2001, 200…
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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

UPDATE 5: 0.75 is the equilibrium level for the Aussie as we await the FOMC meeting. Lacklustre Australian data overnight (HPI, NAB Business Confidence) but some better than expected Chinese data (Industrial Production, Retail Sales) were unable to move it. The pair has been bumping against the level for the third week. 200 DMA and now 50 DMA are protecting the upside with 100 DMA not far away. Tomorrow is a big day and I think when the dust settles the pair will move through the level to retest longer-term trendlines. 0.74 - 0.745 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the U.S. dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday trading will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Australia kept triple A credit rating this week, according to all there major agencies. That didn't prevent Aussie from falling further, though the momentum has waned noticeably ahead of the holidays. The pair is finding some support near 61.8% retracement of the December 2015 - April 2016 upswing, the long-term trendline zone, drawn off of 2001, 2008 and 2016 lows, and the May 2016 low. 0.7250 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any event.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude the spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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Aussie will rally sooner or later

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7675, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Line #Bull/bear Line #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the intersection of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing and 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line. The p…
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al_dcdemo 9 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade storming back, in my view.

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al_dcdemo 18 Nov.

UPDATE 6: It looks like the Aussie is in the middle of a deeper correction. Latest developments in financial market are generally risk-supportive but some commodities came under pressure as did commodity currencies, also due to higher U.S. yields. The pair has so far fallen four cents from a top near 0.78, set on the U.S. election day. 200 DMA and 0.75 level were convincingly busted this week and should now act as strong resistance. The pair is currently stalling at 61.8% retracement of the May - November upswing.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 30 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Australian dollar recouped more than two thirds of post U.S. election decline and is among better performers against the U.S dollar of late. Relatively high yield and rising copper prices are two factors that have been supporting the currency. The correction stalled ahead of 0.75 which coincides with 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline. The resistance zone is reinforced by 200 DMA, running just above the big figure. 0.7425 is the initial support.

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Aussie may extend towards 0.80 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7725, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #High Yield #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Line #Bull/bear Line
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the intersection of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing and 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line. The pa…
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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. A gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset buying. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. The U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars two notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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al_dcdemo 1 Nov.

UPDATE 10: The RBA held cash rate at the record low of 1.50% at today's meeting. Even though this decision has been broadly anticipated, the pair added about 15 pips pre-release and around 50 pips post-release. A few were expecting a cut but the rally is partly due to lack of dovishness from them. Technically, the pair bounced from 100 and 50 DMA last week and also successfully tested the trendline, drawn off of 2013 and 2014 highs, from above. 0.75 - 0.77 range is still in play and a test of the upper extreme appears to be in the making.

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