Community
Blog
al_dcdemo's Blog

al_dcdemo's Blog

Avatar

Slow start to the week

al_dcdemo Updated 8 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #EUR/USD #Summer Trading #Jackson Hole #U S Jobs Report #D1 Chart #Antipodean
Major currencies mostly remained in Friday's ranges which were a result of a much better than expected U.S. jobs and wages report. The least action was in the euro while the yen and the antipodean dollars performed better.
Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

Leave a comment
orto leave comments
Avatar

EUR/USD to remain range-bound

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Range #Summer Trading #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Next week may well turn out to be one of the most quiet weeks of this summer. Having said that, if the pair continues to gain beyond the trendline drawn off July , August and December 2014 highs (currently near 1.10), the possibility of a larger short covering rally ahead of the September FOMC meeting is not excluded. On the downside, 1.0800 - 1.0850 will have to hold if the pair is to remain in range.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The pair trended higher in the first part of the week and then consolidated in the second. It appears to have decisively broken above the trendline drawn off July, August and December 2014 highs. In addition, it broke 100 DMA and then also 50 DMA and closed above both. Despite slightly extended upper tail, weekly candle looks bullish, particularly in regard to the break of the trendline.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Flash PMIs from Europe and inflation report from the US are main market moving events on the calendar for the week ahead. Technically, the pair will need to stay above both 50 and 100 DMA, if it wants to maintain bullish bias - any pullback towards 1.10 shall be soaked up quickly. The other, perhaps more probable, scenario is a more ranging-like uptrend with a deeper pullback to 1.0900 - 1.0950.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Euro exploded higher on Monday. It rose close to 350 pips from the low of the day, which is the largest daily range since March 18th. It then spent the rest of the week paring gains from the four-day rally. It is back under 1.12  as I type and is poised to close the week near this pivotal level. The result is a big shooting star on the weekly chart.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: First week in month is always relevant from the fundamental point of view as we usually get to see a lot of top tier economic data in that period. Week ahead will be particularly important as there's an ECB meeting scheduled too. 50 and 100 DMA, which are currently running just below 1.11, are the support levels to watch in the days ahead. On the topside, 200 DMA is the key level.

orto leave comments