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Kiwi uptrend to remain intact

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Lis jako Analiza NZD/USD, Cel: 0.7225, Data: 2 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Strong Support #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 14 Gru

UPDATE 5: Kiwi remains well bid as we head into the FOMC decision later today. Unless they deliver a dovish or an extremely hawkish surprise, I think that after the decision technicals will come back into focus. This is also supported by a lack of market moving economic data from New Zealand this week. The pair established a firm foothold above 50 DMA, which I see as the current bull/bear line in sand. Below that, 200 DMA is the first in a series of strong levels all the way down to 0.6950. October high (0.7265) is the initial target before 0.73 and November high (0.74).

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al_dcdemo 17 Gru

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than ranges.

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al_dcdemo 22 Gru

UPDATE 7: Better than expected New Zealand GDP for Q3 didn't have much of an impact as Q2 was revised lower by an equal amount. U.S./New Zealand bond spreads have been falling since Q3 which has lead Kiwi to adjust lower. The pair broke below the 2015 - 2016 channel a couple of days ago but stalled near 0.69. 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 upswing is the next target but a pullback to the big figure at 0.70 or 200 DMA is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 24 Gru

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Gru

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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USD/JPY to remain in balance

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Wrz jako Analiza USD/JPY, Cel: 120.2500, Data: 2 z Listopad, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Strong Support #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly with concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster and…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Paź

UPDATE 6: After it broke the symmetrical triangle pattern, the pair fell towards 118 and nearly touched the big figure. It was essentially a fake break below 118.25 - 118.75 support zone which was followed by a sharp reversal. The pair hit the above-mentioned pattern bottom on Friday, which behaved as expected. Next week will tell whether there's any downside left or the pair will return back to previous range with the mid point near 120.

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al_dcdemo 20 Paź

UPDATE 7: The bottom of the symmetric triangle pattern, that was broken last week, has been acting as a tough resistance in the last three trading days. The pair is creeping below it but shows no intentions of turning back down. 50 DMA has crossed below 200 DMA on Friday after it has been below 100 DMA for nearly a month. Last week's breakdown roughly coincided with the cross but the pair wasn't able to produce a significant decline.

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al_dcdemo 23 Paź

UPDATE 8: The symmetric triangle was resolved in the most "market" way. Several fake breakouts to either side were followed by a "real" break to the downside, which proved to be fake. The pair seems to have convincingly broken above 120 level helped by risk-on sentiment spurred by ECB's dovishness and PBOC rate cuts. Stock are rallying and 125 is back in focus. 122.00 - 122.50 is the first strong barrier on the way there.

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al_dcdemo 27 Paź

UPDATE 9: Yen rose more than two cents last week. It traded up to 121.50 and closed above 200 DMA. However, it has been falling since the beginning of this week, to as low as 120.15 in today's trading, before stalling. The big figure (120), also the mid point of the 118 - 122 range, shall hold if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias. On a break below, retest of the lower extreme of the range will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Lis

Great analysis : )

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USD/JPY technicals muddy

al_dcdemo Przesłano 27 Sie jako Analiza USD/JPY, Cel: 119.7500, Data: 1 z Październik, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Strong Support #Risk Off #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Market Rout #Cycle High #Global Stock Markets
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 Wrz

now at 17 pips away, nice!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Paź

Thanks! It looks good at the moment. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Paź

Great : )

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Paź

Thanks :)

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al_dcdemo 1 Paź

UPDATE 10: Attempt to break to the upside of the aforementioned pattern failed but the pair didn't decline past the pattern's bottom either. Volatility continues to fall as this week's range is even smaller and basically less than 100 pips. I'm very happy with the outcome because uncertainty after August 24th market rout made the whole thing difficult to predict.

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