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FOMC meeting minutes surprise

al_dcdemo Updated 19 May  in #Trader's blog #USD/CAD #Strong Resistance #Fomc Meeting Minutes #D1 Chart #June Rate Hike #Remain Option
Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely does this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September.
The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Rema…
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EUR/USD to continue its moderate uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1325, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Strong Resistance #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Resilience
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline, supported by 1985 and 2000 lows and rei…
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al_dcdemo 6 May

UPDATE 5: The impact of the U.S. jobs and wages report for April was rather small this time around. This could be to some extent due to lower participation in this holiday-heavy week but I think the main reason is that U.S. data doesn't seem to play the biggest role in the Fed's policy at the moment. Due to status of the U.S dollar as the number one reserve currency, the Fed is in many ways a global central bank and must act accordingly. The bank is in no hurry with rate hikes and I think they'll stay sidelined at least until September.

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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 20 May

UPDATE 8: Since the reversal on May 3rd, euro has lost more than four cents against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA (1.1315) on Wednesday and the April low (1.1215) yesterday before it stalled near 38.2% retracement (1.12) of the December - May uptrend. There's more support at 100 DMA (1.1150), 200 DMA (1.11) and 50.0% retracement (1.1070) which currently coincides with the December - May channel bottom. 1.1250 - 1.13 looks like a decent sell zone.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 9: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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USD/JPY fails at 124.50 again

al_dcdemo Updated 31 July  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Breakout #Strong Resistance #H1 Chart #Advance Gdp #Real Consumer Spending
US Advance GDP report may appear soft when we look at the headline GDP q/q figure, but the Real Consumer Spending and Q1 revision make it a solid one.
Advance GDP q/q: 2.3% vs. 2.6% expected, 0.6% previous (revised up from -0.2%)
Real Consumer Spending: 2.9% vs. 2.7% expected, 1.8% previous (revised down from 2.1%)
But not solid enough for USD/JPY to break and hold above the strong resistance near 124.50. This was the second time this month and the fourth time in the past month and a half that t…
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fxsurprise8 31 July

I agree with your view trend is up. Maybe the reason for the false breaks is summer trading? Downturn in China is also a factor.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Yes, I'd definitely say that low liquidity plays an important role here.

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USD/CHF enjoys SNB support

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9525, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Neutral Technicals #Bullish Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: Apart from a couple of low tier economic data points (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer) there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead from Switzerland. Main risk events come from across the Atlantic: (Core) Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting, Advance GDP. Resistance is seen near 0.9750 (March 31th and April 22th highs) and then 0.9850 (April 13th high). Strong support remains in place at 0.95.

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WallStreet6 28 July

Also about 100 pips away! Great! If the dollar appreciates this week it may be very close!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

We'll see, it has to go down a bit. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: The pair continued its steady uptrend throughout the week. The most prominent feature of this uptrend are deep pullbacks, but they were all soaked up quickly as evident by the lower tails on recent daily candles. Even strong sell-off on Friday was reversed in just a couple of hours. It was the third week in the row that the pair ended up higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: As is usual for the first week of the month, we'll get a slew of economic data and it could get quite volatile. NFP report is the most important data point as the Fed may soon be hiking rates based on labour market strength. Demand may start coming in near 0.96 while the strong 0.95 level remains in place if we get any (un)expected sell-offs. Initial resistance is seen near 0.9725.

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EUR/USD to break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1475, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Greece #Bounce #Downtrend #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Lift Off #Bullish Mode
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 4: Euro gapped down 50 odd pips at the open. This was the third weekend gap in a row. It was smallest of them all and it was also the quickest one to close - in the first hour of trading. After a deal was reached between EU and Greece, the pair rallied 70 pips but stalled ahead of 1.12 and reversed from there to fall 200 pips. It appears poised to close below 100 DMA.

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WallStreet6 28 July

I think this one will be the biggest miss as don't think it will move above 1.12 within a week. But very thorough analysis!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, more luck next time. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 5: The week in the pair was quite volatile, yet the range was less than 250 pips. The pair continued last week's rally on Monday and extended to 1.1130 before running out of steam. It then fell for three days, setting a low just below 1.09 on Thursday. Friday was the most interesting day as the combination of weaker than expected wage data and month-end flows sent the pair to 1.1115 before it fall all the way back.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be important as we will get the latest NFP report and both ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the US. 50 DMA is proving to be a formidable resistance as it held four times this month. Above that, July 10th high (~1.1215) is the next. Initial support is seen at July 30th low (~1.0890) before range support near 1.08.

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EUR/USD parity not just yet

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1375, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Data Dependence #Lift Off
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
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al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 6: It will be an interesting and possibly volatile week ahead for the pair. The FOMC will meet on 16th and 17th and on the latter day they will publish their latest decision and economic projections, which will be followed by a press conference. The other main story is Greece and the Eurogroup Meetings will be watched closely. Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 7: It was a roller-coaster week for the pair in which both sides struggled for domination. It was the buyers who were having the upper hand most of the time, but the sellers wouldn't let them very high. The main event, FOMC meeting, left us none the wiser and the pair jumped on it as there was nothing particularly Dollar-bullish. The main thing that is holding the pair down at the moment is the uncertainty surrounding Greece.

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al_dcdemo 21 June

UPDATE 8: Next week will kick off with the Eurogroup Meetings on Monday and there are rumours in the market that there is some kind of a deal in the making. We'll also have Flash PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate, while from the other side of the Atlantic we'll get: Existing Home Sales, (Core) Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims. We are currently trading in the middle of ascending triangle with support near 1.13 and resistance in 1.1400 - 1.1450 band.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 9: It was an odd week. On Monday, the pair was unable to rally on good prospects for a deal between Greece and its creditors. After EU welcomed Greek proposal as a "big step forward", the pair started to fall and it extended the decline by 200 pips on Tuesday. And then there was no sell-off despite renewed worries on creditors' rejection of the proposal. From there it was tight sideways trading for the rest of the week.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 10: The talks will continue on Saturday and many officials are expecting a deal, while many of others are growing pessimistic. Both sides are relentless on their positions and it appears unlikely that the talks will be concluded this weekend. Initial support is seen near 50 DMA with more in 1.1000 - 1.1050 band, which includes pivotal 1.1075 level and 100 DMA. Initial resistance may be found near 1.1225.

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USD/CHF to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9655, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Technicals #Rally #USD/CHF #Correction #Parity #Swissie #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to the 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. Since then it managed to recoup about three quarters of the losses and regained foothold above both 20 and 50 month SMAs. I'd say 50 month SMA is the line in sand. If it holds above it, that's bullish. Otherwise bearish.
Weekly chart:
The pair continued…
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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair was similar to that in the Euro. The daily range on the FOMC day was even bigger (percentage-wise) and after retesting parity from below, the pair continued to decline, closing just below weekly support (previous resistance) at 0.9750. If the pair is to decline further, strong support will come in a way of 100 DMA near 0.96 and then 200 DMA and 50 DMA near 0.95 big figure level.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Even though EUR/CHF was not standing still, price action in the pair closely mirrored that in EUR/USD, which is not surprising as moves were mostly USD based. Despite temporarily breaking 50, 100 and 200 DMAs, the pair was able to recover and close above all three averages. The pair needs to break and hold below that, if the bears are indeed in control.

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foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Good Job, do you think it is also possible a trendless area or you think it could have a retracement ?

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! I see this pair ranging for a while, before continuing up.

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WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! and quite close to the target:)

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