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USD/JPY uptrend to continue in 2017

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.75, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of 2016. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big 100 …
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed members. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session trading.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about half a cent but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Can USD/JPY close the year in the green?

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.25, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of this year. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big …
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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 19 Dec.

UPDATE 7: USD/JPY rose to the highest level since January on the day after the FOMC decision, adding nearly 400 pips in two days. Tomorrow, the BOJ concludes its two day meeting and, while no policy change is expected, there was some talk about the bank rising its yield target. Today's pullback in the pair probably reflects some position squaring ahead of the meeting and into the year-end holidays. 117 is the immediate support with the stronger one between 115 and 116. On the upside, the next target is 119.5 - 120.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 10: Even though there are holidays in many countries today, traders have been eager to get on board of USD/JPY move, which does seem to have at least some potential still. The pair jumped 50 pips in two hours as European session got underway. 115.50 - 116 held on Friday and is the first stronger support area to watch before 114.50 - 115. Last week's high (117.80) is the initial resistance. A successful break would target December high (118.65) and then 119.50 - 120.

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EUR/USD to remain bullish

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1486, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Bullish #EUR/USD #Bounce #South #Channel Line #Supply Zone #Strong Momentum #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: There are a couple of important economic releases next week. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday will provide latest insight into US business climate. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday will be watched closely for general indications regarding employment. And Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday, which has the potential to reaffirm or reverse current USD weakening trend. Previous resistance 1.1000 - 1.1050 should now offer decent initial support.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week a bit on a back foot but on Tuesday it reversed sharply, after dipping into strong support (previous range resistance) in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band. It proceeded higher from there to just below 1.14 on Thursday when profit taking in expectation of two big risk events (UK election, NFP) sent it back down to 1.1250. On Friday it fell further and closed the week few ticks above 1.12. Doji-like weekly candle signals indecision, but we will have to wait till next week for clues about further direction.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: There are not a lot of market moving events from Europe: Eurogroup Meetings on Monday, German Prelim GDP q/q on Wednesday. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will provide latest read on US economy. Initial support is seen in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band before 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance: 1.14 then 1.145 before 1.1490 - 1.1530.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: Euro was the best performer among major pairs in the past week (percentage-wise). It gained just shy of 250 pips, while weekly range was almost 350 pips. It started the week on the back foot, but that changed on Tuesday when strong reversal from the lows near 1.11 signaled that the uptrend is about to resume. That was confirmed on Wednesday after another 150 pip surge on weak US retail sales report. The pair followed through with higher highs on both Thursday and Friday, closing near the high.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: The week ahead could prove to be volatile due to both fundamental and technical factors. We have German ZEW Economic Sentiment, European PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and three speeches from ECB President Draghi from Europe, plus FOMC Meeting Minutes, inflation report and few other market moving events from the US. Technically, the pair appears poised to break above 1.15 in the days/weeks ahead with the potential up to 38.2% retracement (of the May 2014 to March 2015 decline) at 1.1810 and 2010 low at 1.1875.

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