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USD/CHF will continue to grind up

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Pullback #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Support #EUR/CHF Floor Removal #Monthly Descending Trendline
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Franc gained nearly 70 pips against the dollar and briefly pierced below 0.99 before surging back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the franc, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair (USD/CHF) is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near parity. Previous Week High (1.0125) is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 22 Jan.

UPDATE 8: ECB left interest rates unchanged at today's meeting. However, there were some strong hints about further policy easing to come in March. President Mario Draghi expressed concerns about downside risks stemming from recent developments in financial and commodity markets and their influence on inflation outlook. Mirroring a sell-off in Euro, Swissie jumped about 100 pips and then added another 20 after an initial pullback. Although violated, strong 1.0125 level held and remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/CHF momentum to continue

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0325, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Momentum #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 3: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 4: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 Dec.

UPDATE 5: After taking out year's high and trading to the highest level since 2010 last week, the pair pulled back. It traded sideways since the beginning of the week but sold off sharply following the end of yesterday's European session. There was likely some position squaring ahead of today's ECB meeting involved. Macro direction is still to the upside. Shorter term one will depend on the ECB today and the Fed in two weeks but there's always the SNB to support it. If the pullback continues, parity is the level to watch as it coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the last upswing.

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al_dcdemo 10 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Swissie's daily range of nearly 400 pips on the ECB day was the largest since March and the second largest since the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January. In line with the Euro strength, the pair extended its pullback and convincingly broke below 50 DMA yesterday. It is currently stalling above 100 DMA and 61.8% retracement of the October - November upswing. 200 DMA and 76.4% retracement are found about 150 pips lower. 0.9950 - 1.000 area shall now act as a resistance in the near term.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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USD/CHF rally is gaining strength

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Parity #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs…
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al_dcdemo 18 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Swissie broke above the March high (~1.0130) in yesterday's trading and rose to the highest level since SNB abandoned EUR/CHF floor on January 15th. Year's high (~1.0290) is the next target. After that, some resistance is expected into 1.05 level and then at July/August 2010 highs near 1.0650. Support is expected at 1.01 and more at the parity level (1.00).

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Swiss franc was the loser of the week as it lost a cent and a quarter against the dollar. Weekly range was worth a cent and three quarters. The pair is still carried by technical momentum that has been in place since the current upswing began in mid October. The level the pair is trading at is the highest since SNB decided to discontinue EUR/CHF floor in January.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: As is usual, there's little of note on the calendar for the week ahead coming out from Switzerland. U.S., however, will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair is still in a breakout mode. It closed last week above March high (~1.0125) but below year's high (~1.03). The latter will be watched closely in the coming days.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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Is USD/CHF setting up for a break higher?

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Turmoil #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart:
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 high…
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al_dcdemo 26 Oct.

UPDATE 7: After weak pullback in the first hours of the week, Swissie extended its rally and is set to post eight consecutive day of gains. To the delight of swing traders, these kind of multi day streaks are very frequent in major currency pairs recently. The pair is currently trading a couple of pips below the September high (~0.9840). Break above would flush some stops and open door to the August high (~0.99), near the last big figure before parity (1.00). 0.98 may prove to be the first stronger support on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 30 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now. September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Rather than just continuing higher in the week ahead, I think the pair will retrace some of its recent gains first. 38.2% retracement of the October 15th to 28th rally comes in near 0.9775 and 50.0% retracement above 0.97. 50 DMA is currently running just below but will most likely rise above that in the days ahead. 0.9750 is the potential take off point. If it fails, 100 and 200 DMA will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great Analysis : )

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al_dcdemo 2 Nov.

UPDATE 10: The pair started the week sideways, continuing the tight range from the last week. It is currently trading near 100 month SMA, a level that capped the pair twice earlier this year. Conditions for a sustained break above the level seem to be in place. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction as price action in this contest period conformed well to my expectations and ended with a great outcome.

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