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NZD/USD to continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Short Trade #Consoldation #Sharp Spike #50 Day Sma
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 during July and August before it…
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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 1: Kiwi broke to new six-year lows on Tuesday but the breakout proved to be fake as the pair rejected lower prices and rallied into the close. It was also the pair that took the most out of yesterday's commodity pair rally. Profit taking in GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD might have also been a factor. However, sellers were quick to step back in after hawkish remarks from Yellen.

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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 2: ANZ Business Confidence is the only noteworthy data point from New Zealand on next's week calendar. However, month-end and quarter-end flows combined with a slew of US economic events (Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP report) will most likely provide decent volatility. 0.6225 - 0.6450 is the range that is protected by 50 DMA on the topside and strong support into 0.62 (also July 2009 low) at the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week on a softer note but after 100 pip fall it pulled right back into the middle of its recent trading range between 0.6250 and 0.6450. Despite weakness in commodities and general risk-off sentiment, indecision has been the name of the game in the pair during the past few weeks. It may be that it has fallen enough, but most likely it's just another pause before continuation lower.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 4: Kiwi traded mostly in the upper half of its recent (0.6250 - 0.6450) range this week which may signal that an upside break is in the making. Range top coincides with 50 DMA at the moment and, if the pair manages to break and hold above it, revisit of 0.65 - 0.66 zone is quite likely. However, we must be wary of a false breakout too as the longer-term trend is still to the downside.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: RBNZ governor Governor Wheeler sent Kiwi tumbling by saying that "some further easing seems likely". That's nothing new as that's the exact line from the last rate statement but it came at the time when many traders were looking for excuse to book their profits after 500 pip rally from the low set in September. The decline stalled at 100 DMA, just above the broken trendline drawn off July and August highs. Should the pair continue to fall, 0.64 - 0.65 band (50 DMA, 50.0% retracement of the rally, September high) is the potential target.

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NZD/USD will remain heavy

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6475, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Decline #Downtrend #Risk Off #Short Trade #Global Stock Markets #Sharp Spike Lower #Rate Cuts
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 before pulling back.
Weekly cha…
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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 8: ANZ Business Confidence is the only noteworthy data point from New Zealand on next's week calendar. However, month-end and quarter-end flows combined with a slew of US economic events (Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP report) will most likely provide decent volatility. 0.6225 - 0.6450 is the range that is protected by 50 DMA on the topside and strong support into 0.62 (also July 2009 low) at the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The pair started the week on a softer note but after 100 pip fall it pulled right back into the middle of its recent trading range between 0.6250 and 0.6450. Despite weakness in commodities and general risk-off sentiment, indecision has been the name of the game in the pair during the past few weeks. It may be that it has fallen enough, but most likely it's just another pause before continuation lower.

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WallStreet6 30 Sep.

Great analysis as well! And quite close to the market price, may still get closer.

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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

great forecast, will come down to the wire tomorrow

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks to both!

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NZD/USD in sideways mode

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6650, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Range #Rate Cut #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Short Trade
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what appears to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair traded down to 0.65 before pulling back.
Weekly ch…
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: New Zealand retail sales, US retail sales and PPI reports are the macroeconomic events that have the potential to move the pair in the week ahead. With more RBNZ rate cuts expected, the underlying trend is still to the downside, but there's potential for a near-term correction. 0.6650 is the initial resistance before the trendline drawn off July 10th and July 29th highs (~0.67). Support is seen near 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Price action in the pair closely resembled that in the Aussie as both are risk currencies that can be used as a proxy of Chinese economy due to their import/export relationships. However, Kiwi's close was weak and the weekly candle is bearish with the lowest close in a month. That is another sign of the current divergence between the two economies.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: GDT Price Index and PPI report are the only events from New Zealand that may exert a bit of an influence on the pair in the week ahead. US inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes may also send few jitters through the pair. Initial support is seen at 0.65 and then near 0.6465 low. Some resistance shall be found around 0.6560 and then between 0.6600 and 0.6650.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Pip-wise, weekly range in the pair was the second largest among seven majors. However, if we look at it as percents of value, it was the largest. Thin summer liquidity perhaps contributed to this enormous range, most of which was basically defined in a couple of minutes. The pair recovered roughly half of its losses but will close the week below the pivotal 0.65 level.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index will be the fundamental highlights from New Zealand in the week ahead. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports and particularly the latter will be scrutinized for rate hike implications. Technically, 0.6375 - 0.6400 band is important as it includes two long term retracements: 50.0% of the 2000 to 2011 uptrend and 61.8% of the 2008 to 2011 rally.

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