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Cable gives back gains

al_dcdemo 更新1 5月  在 #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Rally #Short Squeeze #Shooting Star #Manufacturing Pmi #UK Election
It turned out that a rally in Cable in the beginning of the week was just a massive short squeeze as the pair turned lower yesterday and continued today after much weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI.
It posted long shooting star on the weekly chart, which implies further losses in the week ahead. That scenario is now strongly supported by weaker fundamentals and UK election to come next week is not helping it either.
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3 意见
Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 5月

Nice post, but beware this week of the Sterling, the next will be a jump over the creed. The Springboard is working fine in bracketing, but I think its the last bottom spring touch. This negative sentiment on the Sterling is a diversion to wait and see the election result next Thursday. And suddenly, everything in the UK will be positive and you will just notice it at the 1.56 level.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 5月

To sum it up, SHORTING the cable for a revisit to the 1.45 is a huge loss, the same way people I know shorted the EURO @ the 1.08 for a revisit to the 1.04, as the so-called Analysts were advertising the idea of the 1.00 figure, what happened since then, while people got distracted it boomed to the 1.12, a gain of 80 points(800 pips). Now, you will think many times before going Long again on it at this level. QE was the reason for the Euro and the Yen, but what was it for the Sterling?. Take a look at the Cable two weeks before Scottish Independence and see where was the Cable.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 4 5月

I'm bullish Cable, especially if US data continues to disappoint, but I think it will retest 1.50 and perhaps run stops below it, before continuing higher.

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NZD/USD to continue floating

al_dcdemo 发布31 3月 为分析在 NZD/USD , Target: 0.7637, 日期: 1 于 5月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Range #Bullish Bias #Rbnz #Indecision #Shooting Star #Neutral Stance
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February and March were more or less range-bound. Support is now firmly established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868. March candle signals indecision and direction is not clear at the moment.
Weekly chart:
The pair mostly traded in 0.7175 - 0.7600 range in February and March.…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 4月

UPDATE 6: New Zealand CPI report will be released early on Monday but even if it comes out weaker than expected, the dip will likely be bought into as commodity weakness is still regarded as temporary. Provided that the Dollar pullback continues, any declines should not extend past 50 and 100 DMA, which are serving as an additional level of support below 0.76. On the topside, 200 DMA shall offer decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 25 4月

UPDATE 7: Kiwi was the laggard among major pairs in the past week but still has lost only about a cent. Weak CPI report, RBNZ jawboning and option expires were cited as the main culprits for the decline. Even though it closed the week (just) below pivotal 0.76 level, it still managed to preserve foothold above 50 and 100 DMA, so the technical picture doesn't look bearish at all.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 4月

UPDATE 8: There's quite a few important US, NZ and Chinese data releases in the week ahead that may impact the pair but the main events are RBNZ (Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement) and FOMC, both on Wednesday. Technically, the pair is right in the middle of 7-month trading range. It is contained by 50 and 100 DMA on the downside and 200 DMA on the upside. Whichever side will give way first, will likely determine direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 30 4月

UPDATE 9: The pair fell in the early Asian session today, after RBNZ adopted conditional dovish stance. As widely expected, they have also talked the currency down, but its questionable if and to what extent this kind of "jawboning" works in current weaker Dollar environment. The pair is holding 0.76 pretty well and if there won't be any significant month-end flows overnight, it will most likely close the week above the level.

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al_dcdemo 1 5月

UPDATE 10: If it weren't for New Zealand finance minister English comments overnight in which he "invited" RBNZ to ease monetary policy, the pair would most likely held above 0.76 level. It didn't fell much though and there wasn't any follow-through on that in European session. The pair ends forecast period roughly 50 pips below the target, which I'm quite happy about, even more so because the pair nicely conformed to the prediction outline.

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