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NZD/USD poised to gain in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Sharp Spike #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 7: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from New Zealand while Chinese Manufacturing PMI will most likely produce little to no impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The pair needed approximately a month and a half to rise 450 pips, from a low (~0.6430) set in mid November to a high (~0.6880) set two days ago. It so far produced three daily closes above the declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs. October high (~0.69) looks quite achievable and a stop run to 0.70 in the first week of the new year seems like a decent possibility.

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NZD/USD will be kept in check by the RBNZ

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6675, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Sharp Spike #Sideways Consolidation
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Trade Balance is the only top tier indicator that New Zealand will publish in the week ahead. U.S. will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. 50 and 100 DMA will be the key levels to stay above in the coming days. Near term potential is to 0.6750 while 0.70 may not be unreasonable target over slightly longer horizon.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi started the week on the back foot as it pulled back some 60 pips from the opening level before 0.65 level stopped the decline. After briefly trading above 0.66 on Friday, the pair fell back below both 50 and 100 DMA. It looks well supported into 0.65 and if the level holds the pair will be on the way to 0.6750 and, perhaps, 0.70. If the level fails, a retest of 0.6350 - 0.6400 and possibly cycle-low at 0.6235 will become probable.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: 100 pip range might not be considered small in the Kiwi but in relative terms, with regard to price action in recent months, it is. The pair started the week on the back foot but managed to hold above 0.65. It made several attempts at 0.66 on Thursday to no avail and then the U.S. dollar strength on Friday sent it back below both 50 and 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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NZD/USD to continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Short Trade #Consoldation #Sharp Spike #50 Day Sma
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 during July and August before it…
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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 1: Kiwi broke to new six-year lows on Tuesday but the breakout proved to be fake as the pair rejected lower prices and rallied into the close. It was also the pair that took the most out of yesterday's commodity pair rally. Profit taking in GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD might have also been a factor. However, sellers were quick to step back in after hawkish remarks from Yellen.

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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 2: ANZ Business Confidence is the only noteworthy data point from New Zealand on next's week calendar. However, month-end and quarter-end flows combined with a slew of US economic events (Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP report) will most likely provide decent volatility. 0.6225 - 0.6450 is the range that is protected by 50 DMA on the topside and strong support into 0.62 (also July 2009 low) at the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week on a softer note but after 100 pip fall it pulled right back into the middle of its recent trading range between 0.6250 and 0.6450. Despite weakness in commodities and general risk-off sentiment, indecision has been the name of the game in the pair during the past few weeks. It may be that it has fallen enough, but most likely it's just another pause before continuation lower.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 4: Kiwi traded mostly in the upper half of its recent (0.6250 - 0.6450) range this week which may signal that an upside break is in the making. Range top coincides with 50 DMA at the moment and, if the pair manages to break and hold above it, revisit of 0.65 - 0.66 zone is quite likely. However, we must be wary of a false breakout too as the longer-term trend is still to the downside.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: RBNZ governor Governor Wheeler sent Kiwi tumbling by saying that "some further easing seems likely". That's nothing new as that's the exact line from the last rate statement but it came at the time when many traders were looking for excuse to book their profits after 500 pip rally from the low set in September. The decline stalled at 100 DMA, just above the broken trendline drawn off July and August highs. Should the pair continue to fall, 0.64 - 0.65 band (50 DMA, 50.0% retracement of the rally, September high) is the potential target.

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