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USD/CAD Trapped Between Two Round Numbers

Daytrader21 Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2388, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Range #Round Number #Seasonality Cycle #Psychological Numbers
Since the summer trading has begin the market has started moving inside some consolidation as the trading activity has chased away. We can tell that the current range is between two big round figures and psychological numbers: 1.2500 current top of the range and resistance and 1.2000 current bottom of the range and support level(see Figure 1).
Important level to watch:
  • 1.2000 = Support, Big round number and psychological numbers;
…
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Daytrader21 10 July

Update 1: So far USD/CAD has not been following the seasonality pattern and instead we had another run towards previous swing high at 1.2700. However taking in consideration the seasonal cycle we may assume there is less upside to follow and we should expect some retracement.

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CAD/JPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 102.9200, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #CAD/JPY #Round Number #Range Box
CAD/JPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 1: Nothing mush has happened since my forecast we have moved inside a very narrow range between big round number 100 acting as support and 101.10 resistance level. Because of the summer trading conditions we should see further range action

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 2: We're still inside the range as the market has kept moving between 99.50 support level and 101.00 resistance level. Until we break either of this two side we should expect further consolidation.

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GBP/CAD Typical Consolidation

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.8173, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Consolidation #Elliott Wave #Range #Round Number
Since the rally from the 1.5200 lows GBP/CAD has not yet completed a five wave sequence and we still need one more high before the wave sequence to be completed. Based on Elliott Wave we're still in the wave IV stage(see Figure 1) which typical is characterized by a lot of consolidation and range bound action. The line in the send for the bulls remains the 0.7500 big round number which it needs to be protected.
Figure 1. GBP/CAD Weekly Chart. Elliott Wave count.

As you can see fro…
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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 2: As expected the big trend line (see Figure 1) has been holding the price for further going down and now wave A of 4 has been completed. During this stage of Elliott Wave sequence we should expect further consolidation. Now wave B is developing and it should stop at 1.8150.

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Daytrader21 8 Dec.

Update 3: As expected wave 4 has been completed and we're in the process to develop wave 5 which should take form of another five waves of smaller degree. But we still need a break above the big round number 1.800 before the bulls can be considered in control

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Daytrader21 22 Dec.

Update 4: As expected wave 5 is currently under way and although we already hit our target the structure of current wave should take form of another 5 wave of smaller degree. We're still in the earlier stage of this new up swing wave and we can consider the move from 1.7540 to 1.8400 wave 1 of 5

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Daytrader21 27 Dec.

Update 5: 1.800 is a strong pivot point and the fact that we couldn't break and have a weekly close below that big round number suggest the bulls are still in control. For next week we have support level at 1.8000 and resistance stands at 1.8200, an 200 pips range that should keep the market balanced during this time of low volume.

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Daytrader21 31 Dec.

Update 6: As expected the 1.8000 provided a good support zone and the fact that we couldn't break below this level even though the market was trying for several days to break below this suggest the bulls are still in control and are ready to push the market back up and resume the up trend. Resistance is at 1.8190 and support is now at 1.8050.

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag
I've been posting this analysis in the Technical Analysis Contest as well, you can find it here: AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of ret…
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Shalomavahatikvah 3 Sep.

Very plausible. Nice.

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.1036, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag #AUN/NZD
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone …
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Daytrader21 24 Aug.

Update : although in the last couple of days we have been pressing higher this move looks overbought and we should expect some retracement back inside the range but not further than 1.0950. Next resistance is at around previous week high at 1.1100 where next support is at 1.1035

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Daytrader21 30 Aug.

Update 2: This low from the 1.0620 swing low looks right now has developed only a structure of 3 waves to the upside it's not yet suggesting big impulsive so we can still wait for a retracement to the downside. Next big resistance level stands at 1.1220 and intermediate support at 1.1125 which looks very weak after so many retests, so we can expect next time a break below

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Daytrader21 13 Sep.

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update the 1.2220 has indeed provided a good resistance although we broke above it the move was not sustained and we dropped back below it and further more. For next week 1.1000 big round number should provide a good support see figure attached for more reference.

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 4: Although it seems we broke below 1.1000 round number we have another big support level at 1.0950 which can hold the price for further declining. The line in the sand remains 1.0930 which if it fails to hold the price we can see further retracement. However since we're in an impulsive move this should not happen.

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Daytrader21 27 Sep.

update 5: As expected 1.1000 has indeed provided a good support but unfortunately the reaction from this level was overextended. We have stopped at 1.1130 which is a line in a sand at this stage, if the bulls manage to break further up than it's game over if not we can expect a 3 wave decline. First support came in at 1.1070

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AUD/NZD Near Multi Decade Support Level (part 2)

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0670, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Bearish Trend #Round Number #Bullish Flag
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly Chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone wh…
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Omela avatar
Omela 17 May

it is perfectly!)

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Daytrader21 24 May

Update 1: So far so good it seems that for now we're heading lower and developing wave D as per my prediction. There is not much support underway until previous swing low at 1.0650 so we should expect price following the line of least resistance for now which is down

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Daytrader21 18 June

Update 2: The breakout above the 1.0900 level was a false one as momentum couldn't keep up and we're back into the range. It seems that wave C has not ended there and instead took shape of an 3 wave correction abc. Now wave D is under developing and there is only one thing that stand between reaching our target which is the previous swing low at 1.0750 and we need a daily close below it for further downside movement

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Daytrader21 22 June

Update 3: So far previous swing low 1.0750 has been providing some support but the fact that we're not seeing any kind of reaction is reason enough to consider that we may as well break below that level and complete a 3 wave to the downside and reach our target at around 1.0670

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Daytrader21 28 June

Update 4: We finally broke below last swing low at 1.0750 and from here on we should see momentum start building to the downside and reach our target. Based on Elliott Wave projection we should end the wave D around our target and above previous swing low at 1.0640

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NZD/CHF Can't Escape from Current Range

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/CHF, Target: 0.7750, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #CHF #NZD/CHF #Price Action #Elliot Wave #Range #Momentum #Round Number
NZD/CHF is still stuck in a trading range and as recent price action suggest we can't see an escape from current consolidation not unless we brake lower. However the momentum suggest that we should see a break above current trading range. In Figure 1 is the weekly chart of NZD/CHF which shows 2 clear trading range boxes and based on my own experience usually price is going to retest the resistance of first range box before going lower. Also in the last few weeks we can see how each low of the w…
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Daytrader21 21 Apr.

Update 1:So far as my prediction said the 0.7500 level has been keeping the market from falling even further. The move towards our 0.7500 level was in a 3 wave move which is corrective and we should see this level hold. We don't have much resistance to the upside not until 0.7700 level so we should see momentum start accelerating. 

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Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: So far it seems that the upside momentum is fading away and we need the 0.7500 round number support level to hold for our trade to be still valid. If this is wave 2 than 0.7500 level should hold and we should se momentum to start picking up and develop wave 3.

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: The momentum has already start picking up as per my last update and although we fade away after we made a new swing high above 0.7730 and we even hit our target at 0.7750 which was actually the high. But this is a good thing as we need for now to establish another base with support at around 0.7600 before another attempt to break higher.

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Daytrader21 24 May

Update 4:AS expected we're now consolidating around 0.7600 level making the base for another attempt to push higher. The momentum is still in our favor so we should see in coming days another attempt to hit our target at 0.7750

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