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Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

al_dcdemo Publié 4 déc comme Analyse sur NZD/USD, Cible: 0.6975, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 23 déc

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 déc

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 déc

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 déc

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 19 jan

UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

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Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

al_dcdemo Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur NZD/USD, Cible: 0.6925, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 15 déc

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

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al_dcdemo 23 déc

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 déc

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 déc

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 déc

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Kiwi to retest support near 0.685

al_dcdemo Publié 23 oct comme Analyse sur NZD/USD, Cible: 0.6925, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 14 nov

UPDATE 5: NZD/USD slipped 50 pips overnight on no particular news. Higher timeframe momentum resumed, sending the pair down to test 2016/2017 support in 0.68 - 0.685 area. If the area gives way, we could see some stop-loss selling but I'd expect dip buyers to start emerging near 0.675.

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al_dcdemo 17 nov

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 8: NZD/USD started the week on a firm note. The pair fell to one-year low near 0.6775 ahead and after the game-changing outcome of the New Zealand election. Adjustment lower may be over for now with RBNZ turning slightly more hawkish. 0.70 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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Cable stages a reversal

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 17 juin  dans #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Profit Taking #D1 Chart #Killing
Cable staged an impressive reversal yesterday, sadly after the killing of a British MP, a supporter of the Remain campaign. A big part of it was probably just profit taking in GBP/JPY after stops below 150 were cleared all the way to 145.
Cable posted a hammer-like reversal on the daily chart and followed through overnight. 1.43 - 1.4350 is the next stronger support (May low, 100 DMA, broken February - April trendline) and then 1.4450 - 1.45 (includes 50 DMA). 1.42 is the initial support.
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NZD/USD to catch-up with AUD/USD losses

al_dcdemo Publié 21 mai comme Analyse sur NZD/USD, Cible: 0.6575, Date: 1 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 6 juin

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 9 juin

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25%, released relatively upbeat statement and then governor Wheeler didn't give an impression that they would want to cut anytime soon. Many in the market expected a cut or at least a strong hint of a cut in August. They didn't get that and the pair jumped 75 pips on the decision and added another 50 in the hours after. It broke above the 2015 - 2016 rising wedge and stalled near 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downtrend. 100 WMA is the next resistance while 0.70 shall now act as a stronger support.

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al_dcdemo 10 juin

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 juin

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will be likely felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 juin

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the European Union. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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EUR/USD to consolidate into June

al_dcdemo Publié 21 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/USD, Cible: 1.1225, Date: 1 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Risk Sentiment #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows and rein…
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al_dcdemo 10 juin

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 16 juin

UPDATE 7: It has been all about the yen today with USD/JPY tumbling 240 pips, to the lowest since August 2014, after the BOJ left policy unchanged. There has also been strong demand for the U.S. dollar with the euro and the franc both losing more than a cent from their highs. EUR/USD completely reversed post-FOMC gains and is trading on the lowest level since the NFP report earlier in the month. December - June trendline is the first stronger support level to watch before 1.1070 - 1.11 area (May low, 200 DMA, 50.0% retracement). 1.12 and 100 DMA are the potential resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 24 juin

UPDATE 8: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 juin

UPDATE 9: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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al_dcdemo 1 juillet

UPDATE 10: Euro has corrected nearly half of the Brexit-induced losses after it bounced off of 61.8% retracement of the December - January uptrend. Broken December - January trendline is the first stronger resistance before 100 and 50 DMA. The pair is holding just above 200 DMA near 1.11 level but there seems to be good demand all the way to 1.10. It seems unlikely in the near-term but, in case of second round selling, long-term trendline (currently 1.0825) could come into focus.

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EURo breaks below the April low

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 20 mai  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Reversal #EUR/USD #Selling #D1 Chart
Since the reversal on May 3rd, euro has lost more than four cents against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA (1.1315) on Wednesday and the April low (1.1215) yesterday before it stalled near 38.2% retracement (1.12) of the December - May uptrend.
There's more support at 100 DMA (1.1150), 200 DMA (1.11) and 50.0% retracement (1.1070) which currently coincides with the December - May channel bottom. 1.1250 - 1.13 looks like a decent sell zone.
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Loonie turns around

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 9 mai  dans #Trader's blog #USD/CAD #Reversal #Confluence #D1 Chart #Wildfires #Sell Zone
After the U.S. dollar reversal last week, Canadian dollar has been one of the currencies that have been hit the hardest. Raging wildfires in Alberta have definitely contributed to the rise in USD/CAD as oil prices remain supported.
The pair added more than five cents since Tuesday and is currently trading just below a confluence of the April 18th high, 50 DMA and 1.30 big figure level. 1.30 - 1.3065 (2008 - 2009 highs) seems like a decent sell zone but with current momentum the pair may just sli…
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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Publié 30 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/USD, Cible: 1.1125, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 jan

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 jan

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 jan

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 jan

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 jan

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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GBP/USD to continue to grind lower

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5125, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart
Strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. Th…
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al_dcdemo 2 déc

UPDATE 5: Cable touched below 1.50 on Monday but bounced more than 130 pips from there before it turned back down. Weak Manufacturing and Construction PMI releases didn't help the pair which has been sold on most crosses. Today, 1.50 was properly busted and the low of the day was put in few pips below 1.49. The bounce ran out of steam just above 1.4950. Broken 1.50 level shall now act as a resistance, should the pair get there anytime soon. Some support is seen at April 21th low near 1.4850.

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al_dcdemo 9 déc

UPDATE 6: Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1). The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 15 déc

UPDATE 7: Yesterday was a relatively volatile Monday for the Cable with the daily range of 120 pips. Today is shaping up to be of a sideways type but we'll see where the current USD buying will stall. 1.5130 - 1.5140 (Weekly Pivot Point, Low Of Day) is the immediate support ahead of 1.5080 - 1.5110 (Previous Day Low, 00's, Daily Support 1). Strong resistance 1.5180 - 1.5210 (Monthly Pivot Point, 00's, Daily Resistance 1) is followed by 1.5230 - 1.5250 (Previous Day High, 50 DMA, Previous Week High, 50's).

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al_dcdemo 28 déc

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier U.K. data, released on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely won't produce any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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