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Kiwi pulls back

al_dcdemo Posted 14 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Rally #NZD/USD #Retracement #Rbnz #Rate Statement #H1 Chart
RBNZ governor Governor Wheeler sent Kiwi tumbling by saying that "some further easing seems likely". Nothing new as that's the exact line from the last rate statement but it came at the time when many traders were looking for excuse to book their profits after 500 pip rally from the low set in September.
The decline stalled at 100 DMA, just above the broken trendline drawn off July and August highs. Should the pair continue to fall, 0.64 - 0.65 band (50 DMA, 50.0% retracement of the rally, Septe…
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fxsurprise8 14 Oct.

He really means it this time! BTW did you know that the RBNZ Governor makes the rate decision alone?

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

He has that power but he says he takes a decision consistent with the recommendation of the committee.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

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Has GBP/USD just bottomed out?

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5670, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Confluence #Retracement #Downtrend #Bullish Picture #Weekly Resistance Cluster #Robust Recovery
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed almost all sub 1.55 losses in February and looks poised to break higher. In the event that the downtrend resumes, July 2013 low at 1.4813 should provide initial support and, if that gives way, there's little to stop the decline until May 2010 low at 1.4228.
Weekly char…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: In the worst week since September 2014, the pair lost more than 350 pips. Retest of 50 DMA and 1.52 was expected, even brief violation of both levels, but after stellar US jobs report it became clear that this is more than just a normal 50% pullback. It all looks set up for a break of 1.4950 and retest of 2013 lows at 1.4813. Chances of this being a double-bottom buying opportunity are slim as Dollar strength is overwhelming and the pair is also being dragged down by the Euro.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: After hardly retracing 50% of last Friday's losses, sellers regained the upper hand and the pair began to slide. On Wednesday it decisively broke year's low at 1.4950 and then followed through on Thursday. On Friday it busted 2013 lows and closed the week at the lowest level since 2010. Picture is bearish and there's not much support on charts until June 2010 (1.4346) and May 2010 (1.4228) lows.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Cable began the week with a positive tone, but then reversed lower (to 1.4635) and was trading below weekly opening levels ahead of FOMC meeting. Massive short squeeze that followed sent it to 1.5161, making daily range worth whopping 527 pips. After retest of pre-FOMC levels, the pair added 250 pips on Friday and managed to close above January low (1.4951). 50 day DMA just above 1.5150 will provide decent resistance, before 100 DMA near 1.53, if the pair is to continue higher.

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WallStreet6 31 May

Very good analysis! Stll some pips to go, but if the manufacturing PMI comes out good on Monday who knows.

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EURo heavy again

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Range #Retracement #Bearish Technicals
Euro is poised to closed below the 61.8% retracement of the 2000 - 2008 uptrend. It will also close below three-week range and possibly below 1.12 level. Add solid US fundamentals to the bearish technicals and we will likely see a retest of the 1.11 low and possibly lower in the days ahead.
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GBP/USD still has room to decline

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5515, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Retracement #Decline #Momentum Deceleration
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The momentum of the decline appears to have been decelerating somewhat. The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: The pair's huge decline was the greatest surprise of the first trading day of the year. It lost 250 pips on Friday, which is the biggest one day loss since May 2010. Again, thin liquidity considerations apply, so we will have to wait till next week for more evidence on whether this was just a blip or something more substantial.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair has well and truly busted the weekly support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) and traded down to almost 1.5. On Thursday it then turned the corner and was also well bid on Friday. It closed the week one cent above the lows of 1.5035. Especially if EUR/USD stages a correction in the days ahead of ECB meeting, further upside in the pair is quite likely.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: The pair set the stage nicely for a possible correction up to 1.55 but then stalled in 1.5250 - 1.5350 region. On Friday, in a bout of USD strength, it broke back down through 1.5150 and closed the week below the level. If it manages to hold above 1.5, there's still a chance of a rebound towards 1.55, especially if ECB doesn't satisfy the markets at the next week's meeting.

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USD/CAD uptrend still has legs

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1772, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Trendline #USD/CAD #Correction #Retracement #Uptrend
Monthly chart:
Price is in uptrend since 2011 and is currently capped by 61.8% retracement of the March 2009 to July 2011 decline. The next strong resistance is the declining trendline drawn off 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2009 highs, before 76.4% retracement and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains, the pair will close the month and the year near highs. That points to further gains, with fundamentals (oil decline, dovish BOC, strong US) also in favor …
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: Similarly impressive as Cable's decline was the Loonie's surge on Friday. It rose more than 180 pips from the open, finally breaking the 61.8% retracement of the March 2009 to July 2011 decline in the process, and then closed on the highs. It hardly gets more bullish than this on the first trading day of the year (and Friday!).

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: After exceptionally bullish first day of the year, the pair corrected to the 38.2% retracement of the December 31 to January 02 upswing. It then proceeded with its ascent and made several new highs (last one on Friday), but in more sideways rather than trending price action. The next target appears to be 1.20 level.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: It was a volatile week for the pair, in which it broke 1.20 level, then traded down to 1.18 on a SNB day, then turned around and traded all the way back and to the new highs on Friday, but it didn't close the week above 1.20. If it manages to get and hold above 1.20 then the next strong resistance cluster is in 1.2200 - 1.2250 range and then there's 200 month SMA at 1.2325.

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USD/JPY to continue uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 122.1900, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendline #USD/JPY #Retracement #Uptrend #Resistance Zone #New Highs
Monthly chart:
Price is trending up towards strong resistance zone:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 625 pip correction, the pair appears to have re-established its uptrend and seems poised to continue to new highs in the new year and towards the monthly resistance lev…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: For the first trading day of the year and Friday at the same time, there was quite a lot of action in the pair. It climbed 100 pips from the open, then lost nearly all gains after weak ISM Manufacturing PMI, but the dip was quickly bought and the pair ended the day and the week near highs. That is consistent with the bullish bias, but we will know better next week when liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: Contrary to expectations of many participants the pair failed to advance above 120.75. It instead sold off to 118, traded back up to 120 and then on Friday it fell again and closed the week two cents lower around 118.40. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows is clearly visible, but it will have to break 118, which also corresponds to 50 day SMA, to signal that the larger decline is possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: Despite all the goings-on in the past week, the pair survived the bout of risk-off sentiment and managed to hold above 115.50 support zone. It was particularly strong on Friday, when it has recouped most losses and closed the week only 75 pips lower after being down more than 250. It goes into the next week on a positive note and any ECB easing measures should support the pair through JPY crosses.

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