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BULLISH CHANNEL

Durden Posted 30 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/NOK, Target: 9.3513, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Rsi #EUR/NOK #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 9.17183 9.35128 9.63183

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bullish channel dynamics. The chart analysis indicates the bullish dynamics and can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis and the RSI momentum indicator. The level price at 9.63183 as a resistance can bring to the bearish retracement regime.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indic…
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4 Comments
Durden avatar
Durden 3 Nov.

Hidden Markov model analysis in chart H4 shows a  bearish regime. The Euro zone monetary policy can facilitate the selling regime.  The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a slightly sell market side forecast. The pair EUR/NOK can have a -0.3 % at the Asian session opening.

Durden avatar
Durden 12 Nov.

HMM analysis in chart H4 shows a slightly bearish regime. The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a slightly selling market side forecast. The EUR/NOK  pattern  can have a -0.2  %  as forecast  at the Asian session opening.

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Durden 24 Nov.

Economic  German releases support the slightly bullish forecast. 
The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a slightly buy market side forecast. The pair EUR/NOK can have a 0.3 % at the Asian session opening. Hidden Markov model analysis in chart H4 shows a  trendless regime.

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Durden 30 Nov.

HMM analysis in chart H4 shows a no bias slightly bearish  regime. The chart analysis integrated with the RSI and the volatility studies are coherent with a  slightly bearish  market side forecast. The pair  EUR/NOK  can have a  -0.2 % at the Asian session opening.

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BEARISH RETRACEMENT

Durden Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4115, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Bearish #Rsi #Retracement #EUR/SEK #Hidden Markov Processes
[url=https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/technical_analysis/?action=blog&nickname=Durden&post_id=64745#article][/url]
INDICATORS: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

KEY PRICE LEVELS : 9.1689 - 9.3483 - 9.63087

Weekly CHART PATTERN : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly VISION

The EUR/SEK pair is moving in a bullish channel pattern dynamics with a resistance line at 9.63087 . The chart analysis indicates a slightly bullish dynamics and it can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis and the RSI momentum indicator. Standard Dev is relatively adeguate with a slightly bearish tendency.
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3 Comments
foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Oct.

Great analysis.  stai in ufficio con Andrea ?

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Durden 2 Oct.

The EUR/SEK  is in a slightly bearish regime. The EUR positive bias can be improved  by the PPI release. The hidden state target is evaluated at +0.3 % at US closing market.

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Durden 8 Oct.

The pair shows a slightly bearish regime. Also Hidden markov model and RSI support the -0.1% of the EUR pair again the SEK counterpart.
EUR  Fundamental suggest the sell side regime ( German Production ) .

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Bearish with retracement and HMM integration

Durden Posted 31 July as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.8529, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #Bearish #Rsi #NZD/CAD #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes #Nzdcad

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 0.79918 - 0.84087 - 0.85293 - 0.8703

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with a possible retracement at the 0.8703 and at 0.84087 . The chart analysis indicates the bearish trend can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis and the RSI momentum indicator. The volatility can suggest slightly trend.
Daily Vision

The D1 sc…
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2 Comments
Durden avatar
Durden 23 Aug.

After a bullish recovery the pair is in a regime around the 0.8810 level price.
The technical indicators support the trendless regime.
The hidden markov process consider the possibility of a bearish objective at 0.8732

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Durden 27 Aug.

The decision proposed by the Chinese authorities to devalue the renminbi give great volatility on the world market exchange. The interest rate decision in combination with the economic chinese releases make the EUR and the correlated pair ( CHF-SEK-NOK-PLN-GBP )  recovery a great profit opportunity. Instead of this USD buyers or JPY sellers sustainers slide on a difficult side of the markets.
Commodities Pairs like AUD-NZD-RUB-CAD shows deflective dynamics. In this scenario the NZD/CAD  chart indicates a trendless regime.

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Triangle Pattern AUD/SGD

Durden Posted 14 June as Analysis on AUD/SGD, Target: 1.0389, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Pattern #Rsi #AUD/SGD #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes #Trinagle #Slightly Bearish #Support Lines
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 1.001 - 1.0499 - 1.09995

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

AUD/SGD is moving in a downtrend triangle pattern dynamics . The chart analysis bearish trend can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI momentum indicator.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that AUD/SGD is in a slightly bullish trend. The crossing of the triangle lines can lead to a possible bullish dynamics.
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3 Comments
Durden avatar
Durden 1 July

The AUD/SGD pair is in bullish trend as indicated in figure. The pattern around the support line can include also the possibility of a bearish crossing. In this context in consideration of the Hidden Markov Model bearish state can be indicated an objective of  1.0312

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Durden 28 July

The China - 8.487 % performance can create a psychologic bridge with the AUD economy because of the commodity prices evaluated in a offer side forecast can be view as a message for the AUD sellers opportunities.

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Durden 2 Aug.

The monetary easing from the RBA, can determine the overall valuation of the currency.
Considering the technicals indicators are looking significantly bearish for the AUD/SGD dollar.
The moving averages are declining, whilst RSI still remains within neutral territory which could indicates there is still plenty of room on the downside.

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Bullish AUD/NZD Possibility of retracement at the resistance

Durden Posted 14 June as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.1001, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #AUD/NZD #Bullish #Interest Rate #Rsi #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes
Indicators: Fibonacci Retracements, RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 1.0002 - 1.06084 - 1.0903 - 1.10008 - 1.1291

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision
AUD/NZD is moving in a bullish dynamics in consideration of the interest rate at 3.25 % decision. The chart analysis suggests bullish trend and can be supported by the RSI momentum indicator, Parabolic Sar distribution integrated with a Volume and Standard Deviation analysis.

Daily Vi…
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5 Comments
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Durden 27 June

RBNZ published its Statement of Intent and took the opportunity to repeat once again that the "unjustified and unsustainable levels" of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) have significantly  not improved the country's economy, in addition to the  of the Australian and Chinese economies bearish trend and the sharp drop in the prices of  caseary products can lead the NZD dollars in a bearish  trend.

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Durden 29 June

The RBNZ is probably committed to devalue the kiwi, so  bullish forecast.

Durden avatar
Durden 28 July

The China - 8.487 % performance can create a psychologic bridge with the AUD economy because of the commodity prices evaluated in a offer side forecast can be view as a message for the AUD sellers opportunities.

Durden avatar
Durden 31 July

The bearish trend of growth in China could easily push the economic outlook of Australia in the red zone of the rate cut by the RBA. This monetary policy could support the offer side of the AUD.

Durden avatar
Durden 2 Aug.

The monetary easing from the RBA, can determine the overall valuation of the currency.
Considering the technicals indicators are looking significantly bearish for the AUD/NZD dollar.

The moving averages are declining, whilst RSI still remains within neutral territory which could indicates there is still plenty of room on the downside.

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Bearish with retracement NZD/JPY

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 89.3010, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #NZD #Trend #Bearish #NZD/JPY #Rsi #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 80.0012 - 84.001 - 85.302 - 88.087 - 89.301 - 93.86 . 99.8992

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with a support line at 85.302 . The chart analysis integrated with the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI indicator support the trend.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is in a bearish trend with a support at 85.301. …
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4 Comments
Durden avatar
Durden 14 June

NZD interest rate at 3.25% give support for a bearish dynamics.  Hidden Markov Model applied to the pair can generate an objective price around 82 pips from actual price.
The RSI also support the bearish side of the market.

Durden avatar
Durden 27 June

RBNZ published its Statement of Intent and took the opportunity to repeat once again that the "unjustified and unsustainable levels" of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) have significantly  not improved the country's economy, in addition to the  of the Australian and Chinese economies bearish trend and the sharp drop in the prices of  caseary products can lead the NZD dollars in a bearish  trend.

Durden avatar
Durden 27 June

  The unemployment rate at 3.3%, . In addition, on an annual basis, inflation rose by 0.5%
Abeconomics strategy  to stimulate  inflation through consumer spending. For now, the policy of Shinzo Abe seems to work and the latest data show that the country is emerging from economic recession . So the pair could have a slightly bearish fundamentals support.

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Durden 29 June

The RBNZ is probably committed to devalue the kiwi, so  bullish forecast.

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Bearish with retracement at NZD/CAD

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.8791, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #NZD #Trend #Support #Resistance #Bearish #Rsi #NZD/CAD #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes



Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 0.87187 - 0.92093 - 0.95997

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with a possible retracement at the support line at 0.87187. The chart analysis indicates the bearish trend can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI momentum indicator.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is …
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Durden 14 June

NZD interest rate at 3.25% give support for a bearish dynamics.  Hidden Markov Model applied to the pair can generate an objective price around  69 pips from actual price.
The RSI also support the bearish side of the market.

Durden avatar
Durden 27 June

RBNZ published its Statement of Intent and took the opportunity to repeat once again that the "unjustified and unsustainable levels" of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) have significantly  not improved the country's economy, in addition to the  of the Australian and Chinese economies bearish trend and the sharp drop in the prices of  caseary products can lead the NZD dollars in a bearish  trend.

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Bullish with retracement on SGD/JPY

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on SGD/JPY, Target: 90.1082, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Bullish #Rsi #SGD/JPY #Retracement #Hidden Markov Processes

Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 86.808 - 90.108 - 91.891

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bullish dynamics. The chart analysis indicates the possible retracement at the resistance line at 91.891. The retracement can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is in a bullish channel. The trend can lead to a possible bearish retracement with a ke…
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5 Comments
Durden avatar
Durden 14 June

JPY market retrace after the declaration of the price objectiv. The Abeconomics can be considered in a monetary side to have reach part of the target. The hidden markov model applied to the pair suggest a possible bearish retracement of around 87.12 pips in consideration of the actual market close price.

Durden avatar
Durden 27 June

The unemployment rate at 3.3%, . In addition, on an annual basis, inflation rose by 0.5%
Abeconomics strategy  to stimulate  inflation through consumer spending. For now, the policy of Shinzo Abe seems to work and the latest data show that the country is emerging from economic recession . So the pair could have a slightly bearish fundamentals support.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 30 June

Great analysis : )

Durden avatar
Durden 1 July

Thanks

Durden avatar
Durden 1 July

The pair is in a bullish trend with a possible crossing of the resistance line at 90.98. As indicated in fig.
The possibility of this crossing is the accuracy improvement in consideration of the bearish trend and of the objective price at 98.10

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Bearish with retracement at EUR/SEK

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.3583, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Resistance #Bearish #Rsi #Retracement #EUR/SEK #Hidden Markov Processes
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM

Key price levels : 9.09934 - 9.35831 - 9.58682

Weekly Charts pattern : resistance and support lines, W1 Chart.

Weekly Vision

The pair is moving in a bearish dynamics with retracement around the support line at 0.70997. The chart analysis indicates the bearish trend can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI momentum indicator.

Daily Vision

The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is in a trendless channel with a …
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Durden 14 June

Grexit could be a possibility to show a bearish side conquest.
The EUR investors are quite doubtuful about the greek governament decision to repay the debt.
This possibility can facilitate a recession state in the hidden markov model. In consideration of no other  statistical relevant data the stochastic theory could be a not so good indication. Anyway if the greek economy plan it is approved in EU, the hidden markov model forecast a 69 pips of retracement in consideration of the closing market price.

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Durden 27 June

In case of a greek  agreement found, as mentioned,  it is possible to see  a recovery of the euro and the euro correlted pair like CHF and GBP against the dollar. With no agreement, the scenario could be completely different, with the yen and the dollar to serve as potential bullish support.  Probably it is opportune to be outside this war and shift eventually the opportunity of profitable trading

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Durden 29 June

The greek government, which failed to reach an agreement with creditors, it is possible that it is trying to get the support of the population with a referendum , in the likely event that Greece  exit the eurozone. It is possible that  EUR can have a bearish retracement dynamics.

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Trendless after the Bearish retracement on USD/RUB

Durden Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/RUB, Target: 49.9900, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #RUB #USD #Bearish #Rsi #USD/RUB #Retracement #Trendless #Hidden Markov Processes
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMMKey price levels : 49.98995 - 56.92215 - 69.96932
Weekly Charts pattern : resistance line , W1 Chart.
Weekly Vision
The pair is moving in a bullish dynamics . The chart analysis indicates the bullish trend that can be supported by the Hidden Markov Models Analysis, the RSI momentum indicator.
Daily Vision
The D1 scale indicates that the patttern is in a bearish - trendless channel with a support zone at 49.98995 . The trend can lead to a possible bullish r…
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Durden 5 June


The NFP release at 280 K give opportunity to theUSD bullish side to conquer part of the market sentiment. Obviously the momentum indicator, the chart analysis in H1 and the rate decision can give support to the USD bullish theory. Regarding OPEC and the meeting to be held  in Vienna seems very likely that it could not change the amount of barrels produced, so it is possible to have no great correlations withthe oil price. 

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