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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.2111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Resistance #Rally #European Union #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1110, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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EUR/PLN Remains in Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2454, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Multi Year
The near six years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in force. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2453. This is around 4 percent, a very small amount for several years of trading.
The vast majority of the past 6 years the pair has spent between 3.06 and 4.5800. Like we said above, it's currently trading at 4.2453, in the middle of the range still.
On our final chart above we are seeing that the…
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Pound Targeting 1.3500?

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3434, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #GBP/USD #Resistance #Cable #Rally #Retracement #Resistance Zone #UK Election
The Pound could be targeting the 1.3500 round level in June. Exhibit A is the chart below. Notice how after a strong +900 pips rally from the lows the pair is now consolidating. The fact that we're currently quoted less then 200 pips below the highs signals to me that this is just a healthy retracement on the way to more gains. The UK election is coming up soon and that should act as a price catalyst as well.
But what could be our target? The nearest resistance level can be found at the 1.3448 s…
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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5567, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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Aussie Back on the Offensive

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Australian Dollar #Pullback #Average True Range #Risk Sentiment
The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
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Gains in EUR/TRY Fizzle Out

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8531, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #EUR/TRY #Uptrend #Overbought #Try #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Us Elections
The gains in the EUR/TRY during January are being eaten away in February. We're now quoted at 3.8541, barely above this year's open for this currency pair. This shows that the bull trend has been broken.
Exhibit number two is the lower time-frame chart below. Here we see that prices are indecisive , with large swings. While in the pic above we had gains erased by downtrend, here we see losses erased by uptrend.
In conclusion, this year neither the bulls nor the bears can steer this currency pair…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The EUR/TRY is trading at 3.9248 right now, around 1.8 percent away from my forecasted price.

Initially the pair acted according to my expectations. From March 1st to March 17th we've been trading mostly range-bound, although with a slight bullish bias. Since then however the pair started moving back up as the Euro is being bought up across the board on risk aversion.

Still looking at the daily chart, you couldn't tell this is a trend. We're well within the bound of last month's trading range for example.And February was within the bound of January's trading range. Ranges prevail!

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 2: We're now quoted at 3.8996 in this pair and slowly drifting toward my forecasted price of 3.8531. The past three days saw some mixed price action, as you can expect in this pair.

First the EUR/TRY rallied to a high of 3.9644, only to get sold to low of 3.8825 in the next two days. We are currently trading at 3.8996 like we said above, closer to the lows then the highs.

Seems that my previous update called it right. While prices were moving up, it didn't look like much of a trend to me. And now we're seeing the pair reverse those tentative gains.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The EUR/TRY continues the slow drift toward my 3.8531 target. We're now trading at 3.8705, only 0.45% away from my forecasted price.

More of the same seems likely here as the momentum is still down. We should see the pair continue to drift lower and hopefully settle at a better price for me on Monday.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today. Volatile swings with no decisive outcome.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: This for another update and this time we will add a chart. This picture shows the price action for EUR/TRY during March.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today.

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The EUR/TRY opened the new week at 3.8683, a bit closer to my forecasted price at 3.8531.

Unfortunately in the next few hours of the Asian session the move lower fizzled out and we're currently quoted at 3.8733.

This is little changed compared to the close on Friday, so we'll have to wait and see what happens on Monday in the last few hours of the contest!

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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3054, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5588, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Single Currency
The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 29 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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