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Loonie testing the bottom of the wedge

al_dcdemo Posted 7 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #Wedge #D1 Chart #Resilience
As much as the Canadian dollar was weak last year, it's been incredibly resilient so far this year. Oil remains its biggest driver but recently the currency seems to fall less on oil declines than it rises on oil rallies.
The pair is currently testing the bottom of the wedge pattern that it has been tracing since earlier this year. Area between 1.28 and 1.2750 (August low) marks an important support. 100 DMA is the first stronger resistance.
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EUR/USD to continue its moderate uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1325, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Strong Resistance #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Resilience
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline, supported by 1985 and 2000 lows and rei…
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al_dcdemo 6 May

UPDATE 5: The impact of the U.S. jobs and wages report for April was rather small this time around. This could be to some extent due to lower participation in this holiday-heavy week but I think the main reason is that U.S. data doesn't seem to play the biggest role in the Fed's policy at the moment. Due to status of the U.S dollar as the number one reserve currency, the Fed is in many ways a global central bank and must act accordingly. The bank is in no hurry with rate hikes and I think they'll stay sidelined at least until September.

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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 20 May

UPDATE 8: Since the reversal on May 3rd, euro has lost more than four cents against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA (1.1315) on Wednesday and the April low (1.1215) yesterday before it stalled near 38.2% retracement (1.12) of the December - May uptrend. There's more support at 100 DMA (1.1150), 200 DMA (1.11) and 50.0% retracement (1.1070) which currently coincides with the December - May channel bottom. 1.1250 - 1.13 looks like a decent sell zone.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 9: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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EUR/USD will continue to trend up quietly

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1225, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Familiar Range #Resilience
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above long-term trendline, supported by 1985 and 2000 lows and rei…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps mostly against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 7: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Euro seems to be on a downswing again after strong resistance above 1.1450 held. However, I don't expect it to fall much further from here and am still of view that we'll approach 1.20 before 1.05. 1.1140 - 1.1190 (50 DMA, March 24th low) is the initial support but a stronger one may come in 1.0975 - 1.1075 band, which includes 100 DMA, 200 DMA, 1.1050 pivot, 1.10 level and December - March trendline. 1.13 - 1.1350 shall cap the pair in for now.

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