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Aussie to consolidate around 0.75 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7525, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 10: After months of underperformance, Australian Retail Sales improved in November. iPhone X and Black Friday sales have been cited. AUD/USD jumped 40 pips and is holding the gains. 0.7875 - 0.79 area, that includes 61.8% retracement of the September - December downswing, is the immediate barrier. 0.7850 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jan.

UPDATE 11: Australian dollar started the week on the front foot and is approaching 0.7975 - 0.80 area, where it is likely to encounter at least some resistance. It's Martin Luther King Day today in the U.S. - thinner liquidity could lead to either tighter volatility or outsized moves.

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0.75 may not hold Aussie in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7450, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet this year.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Aussie to retrace some more in November

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7775, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pa…
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al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

UPDATE 5: AUD/USD fell 50 pips overnight, after the release of weaker than expected Wage Price Index. 38.2% retracement of the 2016 - 2017 upswing now looks properly broken. 0.75 - 0.755 area is the next major support. It includes 2016 - 2017 trendline, the big figure, and is backed by 50.0% retracement.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: AUD/USD posted an outside day last Tuesday as it bounced from 2016 - 2017 trendline. One week later, the pair is trading about 75 pips higher, after sellers emerged ahead of 0.7650. Private Capital Expenditure report on Thursday will likely provide some fuel for either direction.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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0.77 to hold Aussie in October

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7925, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pa…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 16 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The biggest Australian retail sales miss in four years and dovish talk by RBA's Harper appears to be have been already swept under the carpet. Latest inflation data from China and surging copper prices are supporting the current momentum. AUD/USD break below 0.78 level didn't last for long as previous strong resistance area between 0.77 and 0.78 proved to be a strong support now. 0.80 is the next target with 50 DMA the initial resistance. 0.78 should now hold or else we might see another attempt at the lows.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 26 Oct.

UPDATE 8: A weaker than expected inflation report sent Aussie to a new low yesterday. Today's comments by RBA's Debelle were seen as dovish, particularly the one that CPI was overstated by around 0.25% ahead of yearly reweighting of the index. The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar yen.

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Aussie to trade above 0.80 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8075, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pai…
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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 6: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was the pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Having briefly traded above 0.81 on the initial reaction, Aussie was sold strongly after FOMC decision. It extended losses on the following day as RBA governor Lowe said they are in no hurry to hike rates. China ratings downgrade and metal prices falls didn't help the currency either. AUD/USD broke and closed below both shorter-term trendline and 50 DMA yesterday but pulled back towards the trendline today. 0.80 should now cap it, if we are to see continuation lower. 0.78 - 0.785 would be the next target.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: At today's meeting, RBA decided to keep the cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement is similar to the previous one, highlighting both upside and downside risks. The paragraph on the Australian dollar is unchanged. The reaction was to sell Aussie on lack of any clear hawkish signal but, since the statement didn't deteriorate, selling didn't extend much lower. Area between 100 DMA and 0.78 held and European traders took AUD/USD back above the big figure. 0.7825 - 0.785 is the initial resistance.

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Aussie to lose some momentum in August

al_dcdemo Posted 29 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8075, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pai…
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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

Thank you :)

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currency pairs sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 11: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Aussie to consolidate around 0.75 in July

al_dcdemo Posted 22 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie has been trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 for more than a year. A series of lower highs is noted as the pair onl…
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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.1450 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.7450, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 8: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist may come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 9: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't uncover anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 10: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but most likely not for too long.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 11: In line with expectations, RBA once again held cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The statement from governor Lowe was longer than usual, though the message didn't differ much from the previous one. There was a whole new paragraph dedicated to Australian dollar and how its strength would not benefit the economy. The pair dropped about 20 pips instantly and then squeezed higher but wasn't able to overcome overnight high. Sellers stepped back in and the pair is currently trading just below 0.80. The big figure could serve as a decent bull/bear line in sand.

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Aussie to move above 0.75 in June

al_dcdemo Posted 27 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie has been trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 for more than a year. A series of lower highs is noted as the pair onl…
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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 7: The FOMC was unexpectedly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as anticipated, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 9: It's a quiet week with regard to Australian economic data. Chinese Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI on Friday will probably confirm lacklustre activity in the world's second largest economy. That may keep upticks in the pair contained. The pair has been carving out a triangle-like pattern for more than two years. 0.75 has served as a mid-point and an axis around which volatility is compressing. Whatever direction the pattern will resolve to, it could make for a nice breakout trade in the second half of the year.

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al_dcdemo 3 July

UPDATE 10: There was some Australian economic data released overnight. AIG Manufacturing Index, MI Inflation Gauge and ANZ Job Advertisements came in better than expected/previous while Building Approvals lagged. Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China ticked back to into expansion. All this failed to lift the tone in the Aussie which appears to have entered a correction phase after six consecutive days of gains during which it traded to 2016 - 2017 trendline near 0.7725. June high at 0.7635 may prove to be the first stronger support ahead of 0.76.

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al_dcdemo 4 July

UPDATE 11: The RBA once again left cash rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%. Accompanying statement was not as upbeat as the previous one. The bank highlighted quite a few concerns, including subdued consumption growth stemming from slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt. Aussie was immediately marked down about 50 pips and further 40 pips in the following hours. There appears to be little chart based support until 0.75 - 0.7550. In the event of a pullback, 0.7625 - 0.7650 looks like a good sell zone.

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Aussie to see some further downside in May

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie has been trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 for more than a year. A series of lower highs is noted as the pair onl…
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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Widely expected result of the French presidental election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 6: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 7: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 8: Last week was a relief for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Commodity currencies are back in favour after some hard time at the start of May. Loonie and Kiwi both pulled from their cycle-lows while Aussie was bought up ahead of the trendline that connects January and December 2016 lows. Much depends on the Fed and their tightening pace as BOC, RBA and RBNZ are likely to delay their hikes for as much as possible. Each of the three pairs is trading in a well established consolidaton pattern and it will take either a broad fundamental catalyst or some idiosyncratic risk to break that.

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Aussie to continue bumping into resistance

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7675, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Catalyst #Daily Chart #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 in November has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline …
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against all major currencies. What we are seeing could be a beginning of a complete reversal of the Trump trade. Expectations of a big fiscal stimulus have been greatly dampened in recent weeks. Inflation and retail sales reports both came weak on Friday. Having said that, the Fed is likely to continue to normalize monetary policy, and it may pay to buy any dollar dip at some later point. Price action in the week ahead could well be dominated by flows ahead of the first round of the French presidental election.

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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't seen a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: Australian quarterly inflation indicators came in mostly weaker than expected overnight, though Trimmed Mean measure ticked up. Aussie fell just over 30 pips in response. The pair lost similar amount in yesterday's trading, not helped by a decline in gold. The fall stalled just ahead of 0.75 level which, together with 0.7475, forms a support band in the current range. The range itself is straddling the 2011 - 2017 support/resistance line. The upper band of the range is found at 0.7580 - 0.7610 and is reinforced by 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, even though better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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