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GBP/USD to remain in broadly sideways mode

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4375, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Referendum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows s…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a few weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a huge surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance near 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 24 May

UPDATE 9: After it tried both the upside and the downside in yesterday's trading, Cable settled in the middle of the day's range and the middle of the last week's range. Recent polls show Remain vote firmly ahead but concerns have been mounting that it is not only the potential Brexit that has been holding U.K. GDP growth down. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA last week and the two levels now nicely coincide with May low, making area near 1.4350 a decent support. On the upside, 1.4660 (May 19th high) is followed by 1.4770 (May high, 200 DMA) and then 1.4880 (50.0% retracement).

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 10: Cable staged an impressive outside day reversal yesterday. A Brexit poll showing Leave ahead was touted as a culprit. The pair traded up to 1.4640 in Asian session but then fell all the way to 1.4465 in European and N.A. session, closing near the low. It was unable to rally today, despite an improvement in Manufacturing PMI. If it manages to hold below 1.45, further downside is likely with the first target 1.44 (50 DMA) and then 1.4325 - 1.4350 (May low, 100 DMA). 1.45 is the initial resistance and then 1.4565 (yesterday's European session low, also 2015 low).

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Greek deal closer

al_dcdemo Updated 13 July  in #Trader's blog #EU #GBP/JPY #Fundamentals #Greece #Referendum #H1 Chart #Third Bailout
It seems that a deal was reached between EU and Greece, but it is still subject to approval from the Greek government. The conditions for the third bailout are much harsher than those rejected by the Greek people on the referendum and even if the government approves them, that by any means won't be the end of the story.
Now that some uncertainty is out of the way, currencies appear to be returning back to trading fundamentals. EUR/USD sold off while GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF rallied. In line …
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EURo continues lower

al_dcdemo Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Greece #Referendum #Weekly Support 1 #100 Dma #H1 Chart
There were some headlines in the morning that were implying possibility of an early deal between Greece and creditors, but the optimism quickly faded and it seems that we'll have to wait until Sunday's referendum before negotiations will continue.
Euro has now retraced more than 61.8% of the Monday's rally. It is currently trading just above 100 DMA (~1.1050), a part of the support band which includes March/April range top (1.1035 - 1.1050) and Weekly Support 1 (~1.1060). If it breaks and holds …
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EURo gap filled

al_dcdemo Updated 29 June  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Stock Market #Greece #Hedge #Referendum #Momentum #Daily Resistance 2 #H1 Chart #Weekend Gap
Euro filled the weekend gap and some, after upbeat tones from many officials and the perception that Greek people will vote "Yes" on Sunday's referendum. Part of the flows might also have been unwinding of the currency hedges in line with selling in the stock market.
The pair is back to the pre-weekend range which traded between 1.1150 and 1.1225. The momentum is on the bullish side at the moment and should the pair break above the range, the next resistance may be found in 1.1250 - 1.1260 band …
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