There was some very interesting response after the latest upbeat UK figures. The problem with judging a recovery is that you can’t confirm it until many months later when you can look back and say, “yep, that’s a recovery”. If a few figures start slipping early on then the fear creeps back in that the good run was temporary, the problems seem as bad as ever, and we’re all doomed….again, and so on. What are we supposed to do then? Do we fade the good figures if we believe that they will rever…
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