Open trading account
RBA keeps cash rate unchanged at 1.50 where it's been pinned since mid 2016. Rate statement did not change much, still neutral, but with a hawkish slant. AUD/USD is sitting just above the 2016 - 2017 support but sellers do not appear to be done yet. Also, buyers are understandably not eager to enter with uncertainty regarding new global trade regime and stock market on ropes.
Community Blog
RBA holds cash rate, remains cautiously optimistic
In the shadow of stock market sell-off, the first RBA meeting for the year ended without shocks. The bank held cash rate on the record low once again and remains cautiously optimistic. In the past seven days, AUD/USD gave back nearly half of the gains since December. 0.78 - 0.7825 is the initial support area to watch. 0.795 - 0.80 should now act as a resistance.
Aussie testing 0.75 after RBA
RBA once again held overnight cash rate at the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement was relatively upbeat. It didn't differ much from the previous one though. China debt still a medium-term risk. Slow wage growth to persist. GDP growth expected to have slowed in the first quarter - did they get an advance notice?
Aussie recovered from the overnight pullback on some weaker current account data. 0.75 is the immediate resistance. A break above could see some short covering. 0.745 should c…
Aussie recovered from the overnight pullback on some weaker current account data. 0.75 is the immediate resistance. A break above could see some short covering. 0.745 should c…
RBA leaves monetary policy unchanged
RBA held cash rate steady, as expected. Rate statement was relatively upbeat, noting improvement in the global economy and pick-up in inflation. That was balanced with risks emanating from high level of debt in China and slow wage growth.
Aussie traded about 15 pips higher in the minutes after the release but has already given back all the gains. The pair bounced last week after retracing 50.0% of the year's rally. 0.744 - 0.75 is the current range support, 0.755 - 0.761 the resistance.
Aussie traded about 15 pips higher in the minutes after the release but has already given back all the gains. The pair bounced last week after retracing 50.0% of the year's rally. 0.744 - 0.75 is the current range support, 0.755 - 0.761 the resistance.
RBA holds rates but sounds dovish
RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.5%, which was widely expected. The bank highlighted soft labour market, slow wage growth and low inflation. It urged lenders to step up reforms to address risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. A dovish statement.
Aussie dollar fell 20 pips immediately and another 20 pips in the first two hours after the release. 0.7550 (200 DMA, mid March consolidation) is the initial support before stronger one near 0.75 (100 DMA, March low). 0.7…
Aussie dollar fell 20 pips immediately and another 20 pips in the first two hours after the release. 0.7550 (200 DMA, mid March consolidation) is the initial support before stronger one near 0.75 (100 DMA, March low). 0.7…
Aussie not moved by the RBA
As expected, RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.50% today. Rate statement was little changed from the previous one. I'd classify it as a neutral one, implying that the bank is on the sidelines for at least few more months.
Reaction in the Aussie was minuscule, the range since the decision has been about 15 pips. 0.75 level, backed by 200 DMA, continue to cap the pair after it has bounced off of the 50.0% retracement of this year's upswing, near 0.73.
Reaction in the Aussie was minuscule, the range since the decision has been about 15 pips. 0.75 level, backed by 200 DMA, continue to cap the pair after it has bounced off of the 50.0% retracement of this year's upswing, near 0.73.
RBA Rate Decision
Funny thing about the next interest rate cut that the money market thinks will happen by October: it's the rate cut that's been six months away for the past nine months, a forecast that just keeps being extended.
The betting is all but unanimous that the Reserve Bank will sit pat tomorrow. Just one of 26 market economists polled by Bloomberg – Morgan Financial – guesses the RBA will trim the cash rate at its first meeting of the year.
However, the number sticking with …
The betting is all but unanimous that the Reserve Bank will sit pat tomorrow. Just one of 26 market economists polled by Bloomberg – Morgan Financial – guesses the RBA will trim the cash rate at its first meeting of the year.
However, the number sticking with …
RBA Statement Overview and Interpretation
In Yesterday's blog post I wrote about a technical short setup ahead of the RBA statement. The result turned out to be bullish.
I have taken some time to highlight some key points from my interpretation of the statement. It is included in the image below.
The main impression left from the statement was quite positive. The RBA addressed inflation, as expected as it is a global concern, however they have realistic expectations in regards to the low levels of inflation and expect that may remain so…
I have taken some time to highlight some key points from my interpretation of the statement. It is included in the image below.
The main impression left from the statement was quite positive. The RBA addressed inflation, as expected as it is a global concern, however they have realistic expectations in regards to the low levels of inflation and expect that may remain so…
AUDUSD Faces Resistance ahead of Cash Rate & Statement
The RBA is due to release a rate decision, as well as a rate statement early in the Asian session.
The rate is expected to come in unchanged, however speculation favors the downside for the AUD as the RBA has become notorious for it's attempt to jawbone the currency lower.
Looking at AUDUSD, the pair is struggling at 4H Resistance coming in at 0.7147
On the smaller time frames, we can even see a small channel broken, and price retesting. A rejection from current levels can provide a trade setup …
The rate is expected to come in unchanged, however speculation favors the downside for the AUD as the RBA has become notorious for it's attempt to jawbone the currency lower.
Looking at AUDUSD, the pair is struggling at 4H Resistance coming in at 0.7147
On the smaller time frames, we can even see a small channel broken, and price retesting. A rejection from current levels can provide a trade setup …
RBA holds rates
RBA left interest rates unchanged at today's meeting. Even though this was widely expected, Aussie jumped 40 pips on the release and has put on another 20 pips so far.
There's some resistance at 0.7145 - 0.7150 (Daily Resistance 2, 50's) and then more in 0.7170 - 0.7200 band (50 DMA, Weekly Resistance 2, Daily Resistance 3, 00's). Demand on the pullback may start coming in at 0.7100 - 0.7115 (Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Day High, 00's).
There's some resistance at 0.7145 - 0.7150 (Daily Resistance 2, 50's) and then more in 0.7170 - 0.7200 band (50 DMA, Weekly Resistance 2, Daily Resistance 3, 00's). Demand on the pullback may start coming in at 0.7100 - 0.7115 (Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Day High, 00's).