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AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

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WallStreet6 28 July

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

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AUD/USD to resume downtrend

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Rba #Fake Breakout #Decline #Bearish Bias #Rba Governor Stevens #Big Figure Level #Four Month Range #Technical And Fundamental Weakness
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout appears to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level touted by …
Read full story
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al_dcdemo 31 May

I was bullish too, but the latest data was really weak. The pair will need to break below 0.75 though in the days ahead or the sentiment will turn around quickly.

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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 3: RBA meeting on Tuesday ended as widely expected - with no change. But the market appeared to have been expecting a bit more dovishness from them as when that did not materialize, correction ensued that lifted the pair nearly 200 pips on the day. Final flush-out came on Wednesday after better than expected GDP number and then the pair turned back lower. NFP on Friday sent the pair testing Monday low into 0.76 but was unable to break it.

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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: 50 and 100 DMA capped the pair on Wednesday and will be the first two levels to overcome, if the pair wants to improve its technical picture. Continuation lower and retest of March low appears more likely at the moment and if the pair manages to break below that, May 18th 2009 (0.7450) and May 6th 2009 (0.7336) lows may offer some support before the confluence of 61.8% retracement (of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend) and 76.4% retracement (of the 2008 to 2011 rally) near 0.72.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: That the bears are in control was evident on Monday when the pair was unable to completely reverse post-NFP losses as was the case in most other majors. After range-bound Tuesday it managed to break higher on Wednesday but the weakness was again obvious on Thursday when it was unable to extend the gains after much better than expected jobs report. The pair went sideways instead, leaving inside candle on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA is the only high impact risk event from Australia in the week ahead. But that's not to say that we won't see some volatility as there are two important events coming up from the US: FOMC meeting and inflation report. Two-week range between 0.76 and 0.78 appears to be the most likely place for the pair until one of the events pushes it through either side.

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