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AUD/USD has been drifting lower since the beginning of this year. RBA is determined to maintain cash rate at accommodative levels until further notice while the Fed is hiking, which is keeping the pair from rallying. Each attempt at a bounce has fizzled out at two or so cents. 61.8% retracement of the 2016 - 2018 range is the level to watch on the downside.
al_dcdemo's Blog
AUD/USD practically unmoved by the RBA
Reserve Bank of Australia keeps cash rate at 1.5%. The rate is expected to stay there for some time to come. Rate statement remains upbeat. AUD/USD is down a few pips after the release. The pair is in the process of correcting the gains it scored since Friday. 50 DMA near 0.76 is the initial support.
BOC remains upbeat in the face of trade uncertainty
Bank of Canada stood pat at yesterday's meeting. Similarly to the RBA on Tuesday, they could've spinned monetary policy statement more dovish in current conditions if they had wanted to, but they didn't. However, it's all about trade wars currently and USD/CAD proceeded to make a marginal new high before some positive news on tariff exemptions for Canada hit the wires. Technically, 100 WMA ahead of historically proven 1.30 - 1.305 area looks strong enough to cause the pair to retrace a bit more …
AUD/USD finds the balance near 0.78
AUD/USD gained about 70 pips yesterday, underpinned by positive risk mood. Part of the story was RBA: after recent string of weaker data, they could've been more dovish but they weren't. The pair gave part of the gains back in the first hours of trading today, not helped by U.S. Gary Cohn's resignation and weaker than expected GDP from Australia. 0.77 - 0.79 is the current range, but for how long?
Aussie falls further after weak inflation report
A weaker than expected inflation report sent Aussie to a new low yesterday. Today's comments by RBA's Debelle were seen as dovish, particularly the one that CPI was overstated by around 0.25% ahead of yearly reweighting of the index.
The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.
The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.
Aussie unimpressed as RBA remains neutral
At today's meeting, RBA decided to keep the cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement is similar to the previous one, highlighting both upside and downside risks. The paragraph on the Australian dollar is unchanged.
The reaction was to sell Aussie on lack of any clear hawkish signal but, since the statement didn't deteriorate, selling didn't extend much lower. Area between 100 DMA and 0.78 held and European traders took AUD/USD back above the big figure. 0.7825 - 0.785 is t…
The reaction was to sell Aussie on lack of any clear hawkish signal but, since the statement didn't deteriorate, selling didn't extend much lower. Area between 100 DMA and 0.78 held and European traders took AUD/USD back above the big figure. 0.7825 - 0.785 is t…
RBA decision as expected, Aussie stays supported
RBA once again left cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement from governor Lowe shows that the bank stays neutral. They are slightly more upbeat on the labour market and expect inflation to pick up gradually. Paragraph on Australian dollar remains in place.
Nothing shocking from them and, after some whipsaws on the release, AUD/USD appears to continue on the path of least resistance. Trendline, drawn off of June, July and August lows, is the support level to watch. 0.80 is…
Nothing shocking from them and, after some whipsaws on the release, AUD/USD appears to continue on the path of least resistance. Trendline, drawn off of June, July and August lows, is the support level to watch. 0.80 is…
RBA complains about Australian dollar strength
In line with expectations, RBA once again held cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The statement from governor Lowe was longer than usual, though the message didn't differ much from the previous one. There was a whole new paragraph dedicated to Australian dollar and how its strength would not benefit the economy.
The pair dropped about 20 pips instantly and then squeezed higher but wasn't able to overcome overnight high. Sellers stepped back in and the pair is currently trading just below 0.80.…
The pair dropped about 20 pips instantly and then squeezed higher but wasn't able to overcome overnight high. Sellers stepped back in and the pair is currently trading just below 0.80.…
Aussie sells off on cautious RBA
The RBA once again left cash rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%. Accompanying statement was not as upbeat as the previous one. The bank highlighted quite a few concerns, including subdued consumption growth stemming from slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt.
Aussie was immediately marked down about 50 pips and further 40 pips in the following hours. There appears to be little chart based support until 0.75 - 0.7550. In the event of a pullback, 0.7625 - 0.7650 looks l…
Aussie was immediately marked down about 50 pips and further 40 pips in the following hours. There appears to be little chart based support until 0.75 - 0.7550. In the event of a pullback, 0.7625 - 0.7650 looks l…
Aussie rallies on upbeat RBA rate statement
The RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.50%. However, the accompanying statement looks upbeat and the bank doesn't seem concerned with the appreciating exchange rate any more than before. They even explicitly mention that "the depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy".
After the usual stop run on the downside, the Australian dollar shot up about 40 pips. 0.76 - 0.765 should hold, if this market is indeed bullish. 0.77 is the initial target and then the hig…
After the usual stop run on the downside, the Australian dollar shot up about 40 pips. 0.76 - 0.765 should hold, if this market is indeed bullish. 0.77 is the initial target and then the hig…