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FX Market Talk

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 7 July  in #Trader's blog #Rba #EUR/USD #Fx Market #Risk Aversion
So far the market has not entered in full risk aversion mode and despite Greece referendum "NO" vote victory EUR/USD exchange rates looks quite stable. Not even RBA rate decision could spark some volatility in aussie as kiwi was moving more than aussie on RBA decision, go figure.
I'll be trading very defensively and my main priority is still to capital preservation and last but not least to try to recover my long term account balance. Last month I managed to move in the right direction and ended…
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AUD/CAD - Short Position Explained

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 2 June  in #Trader's blog #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Rba #Interest Rates #Fundamental Analysis Contest
My first trade for this month was shorting AUD/CAD which in the end ended up to be a break-even trade. I didn't even realized I'm trading an aussie crosses because I was expecting AUD/USD to react positively on the RBA rate decision and thus all the other crosses will react, more or less, AUD positively. But since I overlooked this thing I entered short on AUD/CAD based on a small retest of an old support now turning resistance (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. AUD/CAD 1h Chart

My forecas…
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FX Story Time

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 7 May  in #Trader's blog #Hft #Rba #EUR/AUD #Fx Market #Range #London Open #Virtu
Is that time again when I'm rambling again about the FX markets and the sh*t going on in the land of the free market on a daily basis. There is no day passing by without to be amazed of the things going on with the FX Market. This time around I took again a long position on EUR/AUD after my first attempt failed to materialize around RBA rate decision, I spoke more about that trade here: RBA Cut Rates
Not to mention that the reaction on the RBA rate decision was absurd and I was expecting …
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2 Kommentar
guilhemch avatar
guilhemch 7 May

Nice story as usual. It is always difficult the handle these times when your forecast is right but you're not taking part in the party.

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Daytrader21 7 May

guilhemch Yes, it's even harder when this is happening since beginning of the month, definitely not a good strategy to get in top 10 rank:)

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CommunitySupport 7 May

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RBA Cut Rates

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 5 May  in #Trader's blog #Rba #Interest Rates #EUR/AUD #Short Squeeze
As per my expectations RBA has indeed pulled the trigger and cut the main interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00%. I have been warning of the high probability of an cut in my recent post here: Preparing the Week Ahead However despite this move from RBA, the market reaction was not as per my expectations as I was looking for more downside.
I only may guess that the market was heavily short and the rate cut was already price in by the market, so we got a short squeeze. In this regard I can see th…
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4 Kommentar
Ayub11 avatar
Ayub11 5 May

My opinion is we have to wait till NFP for a major downside move. Its now GMT 10:30. For huge sell order already been made, big boys always play againest  retailers.

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Daytrader21 5 May

Ayub11 There will be plenty of time to go short aussie, intraday is still look as it can make another marginal high before going down

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Ayub11 5 May

Agree with you. I am looking for 7930 for short to 7500

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Preparing The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Aktualisierte 3 May  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Rba #Cable #Crash #Correction #Seasonality #Risk Events #Grexit

The coming week is going to be more important than you may think, not only because there are many risk events on the doc that can spur volatility but also because it can mark the turn in the equity market. Don't call me wrong because I'm not calling a crash just a major correction. Since this can be a major topic on itself I'm not going to talk about it here as there are many details that need to be covered. However I'm just going to give you a major hint and I would recommend to watch ES react…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 3 May

great article. Where do you find up to date probabilities for rates?

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Daytrader21 3 May

fxsurprise8 You would have to look at bond yields. Look at the 12 month bill  yielding 1.930%, cash rates are at 2.25% -->big money saying 25 bps cut on Tuesday. Here is a free website where you can look at yields (see above), or you can find the data in excel and construct your charts there. I hope it helps. 

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fxsurprise8 3 May

ah thanks a lot

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RBA Set to Cut Rates

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 6 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Aussie #Rba #Interest Rates #Inter Banking Futures Rates #Iron Ore
First major event risk of the week is set to be RBA interest rate decision. Last time I was correctly predicting a no move from RBZ, basing my decision on the inter banking futures rates which have been predicted 24 of the last 25 RBA decisions correctly. The OIS market is pricing in an 80% chance of a cut in April.
You can read more about it here: RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
When you have an indicator with such a high level of accuracy it's undoubtedly mistakenly to ignore it. Both the, aussie 9…
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RBA Keep Rates on Hold

Daytrader21 Aktualisierte 3 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #AUD/NZD #Central Banks #Rba #Market Sentiment #Interest Rates #Economic Reports
This week is abundant in big economic reports and figures and last night we just had the first Central Bank announcing its interest rate decision. Despite the market consensus for a 25bp cut, RBA "unexpectedly" disappointed the market and decided to keep the key interest rates on hold at 2.25%.
RBA interest rate decision is an BINARY event that can have only 2 possible outcome:
  1. Either RBA delivers a rate cut.
  2. Or keep rates on hold
in which case we have a non-event. However taking in consideratio…
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CommunitySupport 3 Mar.

Hi, nice post, just shared it on Twitter

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Daytrader21 3 Mar.

CommunitySupport Hi, Thanks. I've tweeted it as well.

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RBA Holds Rates at Record Low

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 5 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #AUD/USD #Rba #Carry Trade #Interest Rates #Fed #Yield
Despite the fact that RBA has left it's main interest rates at record low level aussie has kept on rallying and the main reason is because in current low volatility environment investor who can't make a profit from a barely moving market are chasing yields and AUD/USD has long been one of the favorite currencies for the carry trade.
RBA left the interest rates unchanged at 2.5% and RBA's Stevens said :“The most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” which c…
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Neu_spir8 avatar
Neu_spir8 5 Aug.

If current 4H candle close below .9335 then am going short, perfect analysis man,all the best.

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Daytrader21 5 Aug.

Neu_spir8 I see what you mean with 0.9335 is a strong resistance level which previously has acted as support, a good level

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 5 Aug.

good luck!

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Prepearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 2 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Rba #Qe #Inflation #Interest Rates #Mario Draghi #Nonfarm Payrolls #Risk Event

This week's ECB meeting can be the most important event of the year for euro as low inflation threats can be an obstacle to EU recovery. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has already signaled the fact that ECB is ready to take action at this week's meeting including both conventional and unconventional measures.
Market expectation for ECB meeting:
  1. Refi rate to be cut by 15bps to 0.1%;
…
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sankit 2 June

Very informative , well done buddy !

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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 4 May  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Boe #Volatility #Rba #Fed #Risk Events #Yelle

Next week is definitely going to be full of high risk event as we're going to have interest rates announcements from ECB, BOE and RBA which should add some volatility. After last week NFP big surprise to the upside figures although initially the dollar got a bid by the end of the day it erased those gains and we had a general broad based dollar weakness. If you're still confused about this general dollar weakness I've made a blog post right before the NFP announcement where I spoke about why yo…
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