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Fed was arguably more hawkish than expected, now seeing four hikes this year, or cumulative 100 bp. In addition, the bank is going to hold press conferences after every meeting, starting January 2019, which could be seen as more opportunity to hike further, provided that the economy maintains current pace. U.S. dollar spiked higher initially but reversed the very next hour, which is telling. We'll see what European traders have to say before heading to pubs and TV screens, as FIFA World Cup star…
al_dcdemo's Blog
Loonies consolidates after a big move
USD/CAD appears to be in the process of making a (short-term) bottom above the 50.0% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. Volatility fell in recent days as the pair consolidates after selling off following the second consecutive rate hike by the BOC.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
USD/CAD sells off after hawkish BOC
Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. It was the first interest rate hike by the bank after seven years. The hike was widely anticipated but the bank surprised with a hawkish statement. I think at least one more hike is to be expected from them this year.
USD/CAD sold off nearly 230 pips (1.8%) before bouncing off of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. That is the support level to watch in the days ahead. On the upside, 1.28 - 1.285 looks like a decent area for …
USD/CAD sold off nearly 230 pips (1.8%) before bouncing off of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. That is the support level to watch in the days ahead. On the upside, 1.28 - 1.285 looks like a decent area for …
Kiwi falls as FOMC remains constructive
As widely anticipated, FOMC made no changes to interest rates. The accompanying statement didn't change much. Perhaps the key takeaway is the ease with which the committee dismissed slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely transitory. That confirms June hike is firmly on the table.
With RBNZ expected to remain sidelined for a considerable period of time, New Zealand dollar is slowly losing its interest rate advantage over the U.S. dollar. Kiwi topped out near 0.7050 in April and the …
With RBNZ expected to remain sidelined for a considerable period of time, New Zealand dollar is slowly losing its interest rate advantage over the U.S. dollar. Kiwi topped out near 0.7050 in April and the …
U.S. jobs report came in weaker than expected
Eagerly awaited U.S. jobs and wages report came in weaker than expected. While the headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure came in at a solid 151K, both Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours ticked down.
That probably means no September rate hike from the Fed but December remains firmly on the table. U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the euro, the yen and the franc and lower against the pound and the commodity block.
That probably means no September rate hike from the Fed but December remains firmly on the table. U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the euro, the yen and the franc and lower against the pound and the commodity block.
NFP report misses big time
NFP report grossly disappointed. Headline Non-Farm Employment Change figure came in at just 38K which is the worst since May 2011 (25K). In addition, April number was revised down by 37K. Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.7% from 5.0% but on the back of Participation Rate falling to 62.6% from 62.8%.
U.S. dollar lost 100 - 200 pips across the board and that was later exacerbated by a much weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number. A summer rate hike seems very unlikely at this point unl…
U.S. dollar lost 100 - 200 pips across the board and that was later exacerbated by a much weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number. A summer rate hike seems very unlikely at this point unl…
Cable weaker after FOMC meeting
At yesterday's FOMC meeting, Fed signaled that, all things being equal, they will hike in December. Most of the market expected them to maintain their recent neutrality and subsequent repricing sent the Euro nearly two cents lower. Cable fared somewhat better than that as it lost only three quarters of a cent.
The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.535…
The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.535…