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Kiwi breaks below 200 DMA

al_dcdemo Updated 21 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Rate Cut #D1 Chart #Rbnz Meeting #U S Election
New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off.
The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 W…
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Kiwi falls after RBNZ cut official cash rate once more

al_dcdemo Posted 10 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Rate Cut #Rbnz #D1 Chart #Intervention Talk
The RBNZ cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% from 2.00% yesterday. Governor Wheeler said that it was likely the last rate cut in this cycle but that they stand ready to intervene in the currency market at any time.
Kiwi was initially bought but reversed soon thereafter on intervention talk, aligning with the current U.S. dollar trade. The pair broke below 50 and 100 DMA today and is currently recovering from a sub 0.72 dip. Sellers may be waiting closer to 0.7250.
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Aussie breaks 100 week SMA

al_dcdemo Updated 9 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rba #Rate Cut #D1 Chart
It will be a week since the RBA cut cash rate to a record low of 1.5%. After briefly trading below 0.75, Aussie sprang from 100 DMA and is up about 150 pips since then, flirting with the July high (0.7675).
The pair broke above 100 week SMA (~0.7635) for the first time since April 2013 and is eyeing the 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line near 0.7750. A rally to 0.80 seems quite possible in the weeks ahead.
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RBA cuts again

al_dcdemo Posted 2 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Rba #Commodities #Fed #Rate Cut #Yield #D1 Chart
The RBA cut its cash rate to a record low 1.50% from 1.75%. Rate statement does not look particularly dovish - there's no explicit hint of further easing though they didn't close the door on it either.
The reaction in the Aussie was in line with the cut being almost fully discounted. A spike lower was promptly reversed and the price was back to unchanged after a good hour. Still attractive yield, recovering commodities and Fed in no hurry to hike will keep the pair supported.
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2 Comments
TInna avatar
TInna 2 Aug.

thanks for the info. very informative!

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al_dcdemo 3 Aug.

Yw :) I'm glad that you find it so!

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Kiwi falls further

al_dcdemo Updated 19 July  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Housing #Rate Cut #Rbnz #D1 Chart
Kiwi sold off sharply at the start of the new trading day as the RBNZ proposed tightening lending standards on investment housing. That came after the bank announced an unscheduled economic outlook update to come on July 21th . Both are seen by the market as paving way for a rate cut in August.
The pair looks poised to close lower for the fifth consecutive session. It is currently testing strong support band between 0.6975 and 0.7025 which includes lows from June, 50 DMA and 0.70 big figure leve…
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Kiwi breaks below 50 DMA

al_dcdemo Updated 10 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Sentiment #NZD/USD #Rate Cut #D1 Chart #Macroprudential Measures
Last week's RBA rate cut hasn't only impacted Aussie but has also contributed to the reversal in Kiwi. Overnight talk of additional macroprudential measures by the RBNZ to stem house price rises has been seen as laying ground for further rate cuts.
The pair fell more than 300 pips since last Tuesday, breaking below 50 DMA in the process. Some demand will definitely come in ahead of 100 DMA and 200 DMA but it may take a decline to August 2015 - January 2016 trendline before sentiment turns again.
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Aussie sells off after RBA rate cut

al_dcdemo Updated 3 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rba #Rate Cut #D1 Chart
Aussie lost about 150 pips after the RBA cut cash rate to record low of 1.75% from 2.00%. Close to 50% pullback was met with new selling and the pair is back near post-release lows.
50 DMA is the first prominent support level but the real test will come in 0.7450 - 0.75 band which includes late March and early April lows, 0.75 big figure level and 38.2% retracement of the January - April uptrend. 0.7630 - 0.7650 has proved to be a near term cap.
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RBNZ sent Kiwi tumbling

al_dcdemo Updated 10 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Rate Cut #Rbnz #Inflation Expectations #D1 Chart
In an (un)surprising move, RBNZ cut the official cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50% and hinted on additional cuts which will depend on data. Reasons for the cut are weak global growth outlook, high exchange rate and declining inflation expectations.
Technically, the bank prevented Kiwi from rising above October and December highs, at least for now. After 150 pip fall, the pair is stalling ahead of confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA. 0.65 - 0.6550 is the next stronger support band to watch.
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2 Comments
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fxsurprise8 10 Mar.

yeah that 69 cents level looks very interesting

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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

What can't go down will go up. :)

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USD/CAD to climb some more

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Strong Demand #Eleven Year Highs #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed its uptrend. It is currently trading at eleven-year highs.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 range…
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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 1: Apart from GDP, there's little coming out from Canada in the week ahead. Events from the US will again be in focus: Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. There's resistance zone between July 2004 high (1.3385) and 1.35 which includes 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (1.3470). 50 DMA has held the pair since June and is the first stronger level on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 2: Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either. First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365. There's quite a few resistance levels stacked up ahead of the big 61.8% retracement.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 3: This is shaping to be the best week for the Canadian dollar since June. After posting new eleven-year high on Tuesday, the pair turned sharply lower on Wednesday. Follow through selling on Thursday was cemented on Friday, after the release of US NFP report for September which was a big disappointment. The pair's shorter-term correlation with oil faded a bit but it's the longer-term one that really counts.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: Commodities rallied this week with the oil (WTI) gaining about $4, which is even more significant (8%) in percentage terms. Loonie has convincingly broken below three big support levels: 50 DMA (currently ~1.32), 2008 high (1.3064) and 1.30 big figure level. 100 DMA is the next one ahead of Q1 highs between 1.2800 and 1.2835. Momentum is strong and may easily carry it another couple of cents lower.

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USD/CAD to continue motoring higher

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3325, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Strong Demand #61 8 Retracement #Eleven Year Highs #Weak Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend. It is currently trading at eleven-year highs.
Weekly chart:
A…
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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Apart from GDP, there's little coming out from Canada in the week ahead. Events from the US will again be in focus: Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. There's resistance zone between July 2004 high (1.3385) and 1.35 which includes 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (1.3470). 50 DMA has held the pair since June and is the first stronger level on the downside.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 9: Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either. First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365. There's quite a few resistance levels stacked up ahead of the big 61.8% retracement.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 30 Sep.

Great analysis and an accurate forecast!

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

gl! only 15 pips away right now

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks! Let's hope it trades back above the big figure. :)

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