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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.2111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Resistance #Rally #European Union #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6228, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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EUR/PLN Still in that Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2520, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Years #Range Trading #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5.5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2518. This is around 4.3 percent, a negligible amount for several years of trading in forex.
On the weekly chart above we see the multiple years range the pair has been stuck in. The high of this range is at 4.60 while the low is at 3.95. But these are only the price extremes. The majority of the time th…
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EUR/GBP Overbought on Larger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8961, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #EUR/GBP #Pound #Overbought #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is overbought on the larger timeframes. The pair had a +600 pips rally since April of this year and +2,000 pips rally since the lows hit in 2015.
For a mostly range-bound pair this is too much. Technical indicators seem to confirm this view. The Stochastic Oscillator on the weekly hart is showing a value over 80, indicating overbought market sentiment.
Our final chart below shows that things aren't looking rosy for the bulls on the shorter-term charts either. Here we see the EUR/GBP …
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EUR/PLN Still Undecided

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3552, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #EUR/PLN #Range Trading #Range Box #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN opened the year 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3434 down by only 2.2 percent lower. This is a tiny move considering the length of the examined period (over 5 years).
But lets drill down lower. On the daily chart below we see that the EUR/PLN has bounced back and is now headed downward. I think power play between these two charts (one up other down) will keep the EUR/PLN little changed in August.
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The spike to 4.5324 (shown on pic 2 above as the second rectangle) was completely retraced. Prices overshoot a bit and hit a low of 4.2503.

But from here we rallied back up and the EUR/PLN is now quoted at 4.3570, only 18 pips or 0.04% away from my target.

The 5-year range (charted in pic 1) is still in play as prices move like a tennis ball back and forth between the highs and lows. Eventually we'll get a breakout but until we do, banking on more of the same is a good choice.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Nothing materially has change since our last update. The EUR/PLN traded to a high of 4.3685 and a low of 4.3456.

But we are currently quoted at 4.3591, right in the middle of the range. So we can see the undecided market playing out on the lower timeframes as well.

This is around 0.10% away from my forecasted price. What happens from now to the end of the contest will be largely luck but I'm pleased that generally my prediction turned out well.

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Failed Breakout in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.282, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #Volatility #Eurozone #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY had a failed breakout in May. Prices rallied all the way to a high of 3.4218 before being pushed back down. We are currently quoted at 3.2820. This V-shaped pattern signals a reversal. In normal times this could mean extended losses for the pair.
But if we go higher in time-frames on the weekly, we can see that the EUR/TRY is inside a large wedge. This is also why prices had such a sharp reversal when they hit the top of this wedge. While the pair remains inside this formation, betti…
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EUR/JPY Monthly Range Cut in Half

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.271, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Eurozone #Japanese Yen #Range Trading #Yen Pairs #Range Box #Half
The EUR/JPY had a slow month. We closed May higher by 152 pips or only 1.2 percent. We opened the month at 121.72 and closed it at 123.23. Even the high/low range is not much bigger at 316 pips. This compared with +600 pips ranges in each of the four previous months.
If we drill down on the lower time-frame charts this aimless volatility is even easier to notice. Until we break either 124.66 or 121.47 the prudent course of action is to bet on prices staying flat.
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Volatility Dying Down in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3864, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #Volatility #Range #EUR/PLN #Volume #Range Trading #Polish Zloty
Volatility continues to decline in the EUR/PLN. The total daily range in May was only 2.2 percent. This compares to over 4.7 percent in the month prior. The open to close range was even tighter at only 0.45 percent. On the chart we marked May 2016 with a rectangle to make it easier to spot.
With the summer season slowly creeping in, we will probably see volatility and volume continue their downward trends. This will mean more of the same boring ranges in the EUR/PLN. Our second chart below a lon…
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fxsurprise8 30 June

So far so good. This pair continues to trade well inside the range specified above. We are currently quoted at 4.3746, only 0.23% away from my forecast.

To be fair things got a bit close with prices spiking to a high of 4.5324 on Brexit day. But those Euro gains were quickly sold into and by the end of the day the EUR/PLN was down to 4.4500. In the last few days we're seeing the gains erased further as the Brexit consequences start to become more clear.

The UK exit from the EU could lead to more ECB easing or further calls for referendums in other EU nations. This is negative for the EUR.

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fxsurprise8 1 July

We're seeing the EUR/PLN slowly move up closer toward my forecast. It's now quoted at 4.3821, only 43 pips or 0.1% away from the target.

The past day brought us more EUR strength and this is helping my position. Volatility is fairly low today at only 88 pips or  0.2%.

If we take out Brexit volatility remained low throughout June. Without June 24th the total monthly range was only 3.4%. This is relatively low for currencies.

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fxsurprise8 1 July

The pair continued the strong Euro rally and overshoot my target by 0.22%. It traded at 4.3959 at 12:00 on July 1st. This 0.22% difference means 1st place is unlikely but with any luck I should get some of the top spots.

I've attached an updated chart. The June period is the last monthly chart on that chart. Notice how despite the Brexit shock to 4.5324, prices quickly reversed back to the mean, as expected. We closed June at 4.3749, little changed from the 4.3848 opening price on the 1st of the month.

The two major bounds at 3.9600 and 4.6000 weren't even close to being tested this month.

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More of the Same in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.2737, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Eurozone #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Range Trading #Swedish Krona #Monthly Range
The EUR/SEK continues to trade locked in a relatively tight range. During May the total movement, low to high, was only 2.4 percent. The pair closed the month at 9.2706, barely 1 percent higher.
The long-term chart doesn't look any better for trend traders. Since the start of 2015 the EUR/SEK has been trading in a tight range between 9.0500 and 9.6800. Thus it seems logical to bet on more of the same for this pair. I'm forecasting 9.2737.
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fxsurprise8 1 July

The EUR/SEK is still trading range-bound between 9.0500 and 9.6800. But we are seeing some bids post-Brexit. Initially the pair got bought up to 9.59 on the panic but it's now down to 9.3860. This is still over 1% away from my forecast at 9.2737 so not enough for a top prize.

But there is still time and let's hope the post-Brexit Euro reversal continues here as well. Initially the single currency benefited from reversed carry trades but after the realization what Brexit means for the European Union we're seeing a lot of these safe-haven moves reverse.

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Return to Mean Reversion for AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9548, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The AUD/CAD is a strange beast. Comprised of two commodity currencies, sometimes this pair is calm as it can be, while other times it goes completely crazy. We seem to be in the second phase right now. On the daily chart below the AUD/CAD has entered into heavily oversold area. The Stoch is flashing extreme values of 7. Below 20 is oversold according to traditional technical analysis.
But pairs can remain oversold long after they've hit 20 on the Stochastic. Why bet on stabilization here? Well l…
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fxsurprise8 25 May

This pair is trading mixed with a slightly bearish bias. By the middle of May a low of 0.9360 was hit. Since then we bounced higher to a 0.9510, close to my forecast.

But selling in the past two days has brought us back down to 0.9365. Hopefully we will again bounce from here as we did last time.

As I noted in my initial post, the AUD/CAD is comprised of two commodity currencies. Because of this mean-reversion is the name of the game, most of the time anyway.

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wisdom_consultant 25 May

very great, my friend!

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fxsurprise8 26 May

Not much progress today in the AUD/CAD. We're up by only 11 pips to 0.9374. This is about 1.8% below my target, so plenty of more room to cover.

With a three-day weekend coming up in the States and Yellen's testimony tomorrow (as well as US GDP) traders seem unwilling to take on risk. This is the picture across the majors as well (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) not just on this pair.

We may have to wait for these risk events to pass before we see a sustained movement in currency markets.

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fxsurprise8 27 May

Lot of volatility in the AUD/CAD this Friday with no conclusion. We opened at 0.9374 and  rallied to a high of 0.9423 by mid-day.

From here however heavy selling took us back down to the daily open and below. We closed at 0.9353.

The wild gyrations give me some hope that we'll see strong movement in AUD/CAD that could take the pair toward my target.

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