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U.S. dollar continues the sentiment from Friday afternoon, trading weaker today. GBP/USD sold off that day and then reversed just as strongly. The pair is contained in a three-cent range, between 1.3050 - 1.3350. Direction of the breakout will depend on this week's U.K. economic data that may either soldify or weaken the case for BOE rate hike in August.
al_dcdemo's Blog
EUR/USD in the middle of two-month range
EUR/USD ended three-week advance this week, after it topped out ahead of 1.18 on Monday. The pair bounced strongly on Friday and closed the week bang in the middle of the two-month range between 1.15 and 1.185. Technicals and fundamentals are in USD's favour. I think eventual break below 1.15 is in the cards but may take some more churning in the current range.
EUR/USD well behaved ahead of the big events
There's no doubt that the Fed will hike its funds rate later today. The accompanying FOMC statement and economic projections will be of much more interest. The comittee took a step toward a more neutral bias at their most recent meeting. Should they continue in that direction, the dollar is bound to get sold. EUR/USD is trading in an ever tighter short-term range but any breakout will probably be limited, with ECB decision coming up tomorrow.
USD/CAD preparing for the next leg
USD/CAD has been trading in a relatively tight range during the past two weeks. 1.28 - 1.2810 is the range support and 1.29 - 1.2910 the resistance. A case could be made for continuation in either direction but largely depends on whether U.S. dollar can sustain its momentum. The longer the range lasts, the more orders accumulate on both sides and the stronger the breakout move, or so the theory goes.
No changes from RBA, holiday trading in European morning
RBA keeps monetary policy stance firmly in neutral mode, with cash rate still at the record low of 1.50%. The U.S. dollar part of equation is currently driving AUD/USD, which made a marginal new low shortly after Europe opened for business. Or for the observance of Labour Day, that is. The holiday is likely to keep price action contained until afternoon.
EUR/USD testing tree-month range support
U.S. dollar continues to gain, though momentum has softened a bit. EUR/USD is trading just above the three-month range support (and March low) near 1.2150. Nothing of note is expected from the ECB tomorrow but increased participation around such an event could drive the pair either way. A successful downside break would target 1.20 - 1.21 area initially. Otherwise, 1.23 - 1.2330 area will be revisited.
NZD/USD setting up for the next leg
Kiwi dollar has so far been the best performer this week, though it pared some if the gains yesterday and tonight. NZD/USD is still trading in a sideways consolidation between, roughly, 0.715 and 0.735. If risk sentiment holds, I don't think it will be long before the pattern resolves to the upside.
EUR/JPY recovers from seven-month lows
USD and JPY selling has been the theme of the week so far. EUR/JPY gained nearly 200 pips yesterday and added another 30 today but may find it more challenging to chew through the strong resistance area around 132, which includes five-week range top and 200 DMA. 131 is the initial support.
GBP rallies on Brexit deal progress
Pound pairs rallied yesterday as E.U. and U.K. reached an important Brexit milestone. GBP/USD ran stops above 1.40 and is currently holding above the big figure. It's a big week for GBP data-wise, starting with inflation today, jobs tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday, along with BOE meeting and E.U. summit. 50 DMA has to hold if the momentum is to remain in place. In broader terms, 1.375 - 1.425 range still in play.
AUD/USD finds the balance near 0.78
AUD/USD gained about 70 pips yesterday, underpinned by positive risk mood. Part of the story was RBA: after recent string of weaker data, they could've been more dovish but they weren't. The pair gave part of the gains back in the first hours of trading today, not helped by U.S. Gary Cohn's resignation and weaker than expected GDP from Australia. 0.77 - 0.79 is the current range, but for how long?