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Range-bound Moves Persist in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4538, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Range Box #Swedish Krona
The smaller range-bound moves persist in the EUR/SEK. The pair opened March around the 9.55 handle and is currently trading at 9.4533, a percentage change of just over 1 percent. The chart also demonstrate a classic V-shaped reversal pattern.
Our second chart below also shows this V-shaped pattern but on much bigger timescale, the weekly chart. Here too we're seeing the EUR/SEK range-bound behavior.
This currency pair keeps being brought back to the 9.50 area, no matter how much it tries to stra…
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EUR/PLN Remains in Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2454, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Multi Year
The near six years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in force. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2453. This is around 4 percent, a very small amount for several years of trading.
The vast majority of the past 6 years the pair has spent between 3.06 and 4.5800. Like we said above, it's currently trading at 4.2453, in the middle of the range still.
On our final chart above we are seeing that the…
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More of the Same for the Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1622, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #4H Chart #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Weekly Chart #Range Box #Turkish Lira
I expect to see more of the same in the EUR/TRY. The pair has been trading range-bound on the lower timeframe 4 hour chart, as the picture below clearly shows. There were several attempts to break above the 4.16 - 4.17 resistance area, with no success.
On the bigger weekly chart (below) we're seeing the same price behavior. Here too price is bouncing against important resistance and again it is the 4.17 level, same as on the 4h chart.
Because of this timeframes confluence I don't think the pair …
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EUR/PLN Still in that Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2520, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Years #Range Trading #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5.5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2518. This is around 4.3 percent, a negligible amount for several years of trading in forex.
On the weekly chart above we see the multiple years range the pair has been stuck in. The high of this range is at 4.60 while the low is at 3.95. But these are only the price extremes. The majority of the time th…
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.9712, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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Both Timeframes Agree in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8754, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Range Top #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.
The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.
This underscore just how range-bound the EUR/TRY has become lately. But this is not a new phenomenon. See the chart above and you can notice the same zig-zag price action on the…
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USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3970, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
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Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3973, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
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3 Comments
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

So far so good! The pair continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price.

But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.

The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. Everything it pointing to more of the same! Wish me luck as the contest end draws near!

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fxsurprise8 3 May

The pair continued its usual range-bound behavior and ended the contest period at 1.3968, only 5 pips away from my 1.3973 target.

In percentage terms this is around 0.03%, which should land me a spot among the top again. The last few days saw more of the same.

We hit a high of 1.3975 and a low of 1.3940, so again low volatility and range-bound movements prevailed. Stay toned for my final update where I will post an updated chart.

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fxsurprise8 3 May

Lot of swings with no result! This is how April can be characterized for the USD/SGD. Look at the chart above to see what I mean.

First we rallied to a high of 1.4081 by April 10th, then sold off to a low of 1.3906 on April 25th. The lows were quickly bought up however and the pair rallied back up to 'close' the contest period at 1.3968.

This is only 5 pips away from my targeted price. Overall the forecast was very accurate. It predicted that the USD/SGD will remain locked in range, which is exactly what happened during April.

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More of the Same in EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.84865, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Cable #EUR/GBP #Pound #Range Bound #Range Box #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/GBP seems destined to continue in the path of mean reversion. Look at the daily chart below. After an initial bump to 0.9300 in October during the post-US-election chaos, prices fell back to the 0.8500 range. This is where we've been trading since around August of 2016.
On the second chart below we're seeing a similar picture on a lower timeframe. Here it's the 4 Hour chart that shows how during the last month (March) this currency pair exhibited a similar pattern. First we rallied stron…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

The EUR/GBP opened April at 0.8496, 10 pips above my forecasted price. During the month the pair traded to a high of 0.8590. From here we fell to a low of 0.8312, only to rally back higher. (see chart above).

The 278 odd pips of range is not a lot for one month of trading in a major currency pair. This underscores that apart from the direction, the volatility has been absent as well.

We are currently quoted at 0.8426, about 60 pips away from my target. Hopefully with some end of month luck I can get closer to my forecasted price of 0.8486.

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