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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur EUR/TRY, Cible: 4.1110, Date: 2 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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Singapore Dollar Oversold on Bigger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur USD/SGD, Cible: 1.3559, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Down Trend #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Oversold #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Below 20
The Singapore Dollar seems to be oversold on all the bigger timeframes. The pair from a high of over 1.4500 to 1.3500 right now. This is a large move for a currency that mostly follows the USD.
On the first weekly chart above we are seeing that the USD/SGD is already oversold on the weekly charts. The 5,3,3 Stochastic Oscillator is printing values below 20, indicating that the selling may be overdone.
On the second chart below we are seeing a similar situation on the daily chart, with values bel…
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2 Commentaires
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fxsurprise8 2 sep

Everything went according to plan with my forecast. The pair spent the month of August in a range, as can be seen on the chart above.

The August price action is marked with a rectangle on the picture. We opened the month at 1.35742 and closed it at 1.35729, a percentage change of less then 0.01%.

My forecast bet on the pair staying near the what was then the current market price of 1.3559. at 12:00 on September 1st the pair was trading at 1.35451. This is a percentage difference of only 0.10%.

(more below)

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2 sep

Overall the intra-month price action suit the forecast too. The monthly high stands at 1.3688 and the low at 1.3504.

This is only 184 pips or a percentage variation of only 1.34%, fairly low even for the forex market. Furthermore as we see in the picture in my previous comment, the lows got quickly bought up and the highs got sold.

This suits in the narrative presented in the opening post of price being oversold and stuck in the main downward trend. These two conflicting forces kept the USD/SGD in a range during August. Overall a solid analysis that panned out nicely.

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More of the Same for the Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/TRY, Cible: 4.1622, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #4H Chart #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Weekly Chart #Range Box #Turkish Lira
I expect to see more of the same in the EUR/TRY. The pair has been trading range-bound on the lower timeframe 4 hour chart, as the picture below clearly shows. There were several attempts to break above the 4.16 - 4.17 resistance area, with no success.
On the bigger weekly chart (below) we're seeing the same price behavior. Here too price is bouncing against important resistance and again it is the 4.17 level, same as on the 4h chart.
Because of this timeframes confluence I don't think the pair …
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Swedish Krona Stays Flat in July

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5537, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #4H Chart #Euro #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona stayed mostly flat during July. The pair opened the month at 9.62 and closed it at 9.55. In percentage terms this is only 0.73%.
The chart above shows that this range narrowed further during the second part of the month. During this time-period the EUR/SEK moved between a low of 9.50 and a high of 9.62. But most of the time was spend in the middle of this range doing nothing.
On the longterm weekly chart above we see that the current smaller 4h range in right in the middle. In …
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EUR/GBP Overbought on Larger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8961, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #EUR/GBP #Pound #Overbought #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is overbought on the larger timeframes. The pair had a +600 pips rally since April of this year and +2,000 pips rally since the lows hit in 2015.
For a mostly range-bound pair this is too much. Technical indicators seem to confirm this view. The Stochastic Oscillator on the weekly hart is showing a value over 80, indicating overbought market sentiment.
Our final chart below shows that things aren't looking rosy for the bulls on the shorter-term charts either. Here we see the EUR/GBP …
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.1787, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/TRY, Cible: 3.9712, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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Gains in EUR/GBP Likely Over

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8731, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #EUR/GBP #Overbought Status #Stochastic Indicator #Swing Low #Range Bound #Swing High #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is approaching overbought levels. After the latest 400 pips rally on the daily chart below we peaked at 80 on the Stoch and we're now dropping down. The gains likely coming to an end here.
On our second chart below we're seeing that this currency pair has been range-bound for almost one year, since September of 2016. Notice the swings up and down, every rally is being sold into while every drip is being bought. Furthermore here too we're seeing the Stochastic Oscillator above 80, sig…
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Singapore Dollar Near Long-Term Average

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur USD/SGD, Cible: 1.3832, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #50 Retracement #Singapore Dollar #Moving Average #Range Bound #Fibo Retracement #365 Moving Average
The Singapore Dollar is trading near its long-term moving average. On the chart below we can see two things, a Fibonacci retracement tool spanning the most recent swing high and low on the daily chart and a 365 period moving average.
The Fibonacci tool shows us that we're currently trading in between the 50 and 61% retracement, very close to the middle ground of the move during the past 12 months. Two, the 365 MA (in blue) is right now at 1.3858, only 26 pips away from the current price for USD/…
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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 avr comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.6445, Date: 1 de juin, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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