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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5567, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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Multi-Decade Range in AUD/CAD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9686, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Range #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box #Congestion
In trading you learn early that history matters. Both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to ranges between the two. The first chart below demonstrates this clearly.
On the second chart we see that the post-US election rally has completely reversed with the pair surrendering almost of gains.
Because all of the above I think that the AU…
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Singapore Dollar Will Return to Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.4345, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar #Us Dolar #Congestion
I expect to see the Singapore Dollar to return to range-bound trading and here's why. Despite the volatility during the past few weeks, this pair is still well inside the range seen since 2015, as can be seen on the chart below. We are now nearing the crucial resistance level at 1.4441. I don't think the pair will continue higher.
Look at the 8,3,3 Stochastic. It's flashing a value of over 80, signalling overbought market territory. The same can be seen on our next pic below, on the 4 Hour chart…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

My forecast is not doing so far with today's gains in the US Dollar. The USD/SGD is now trading at 1.4502, clearly above the crucial resistance at 1.4441.

Interesting that during most of the month the USD/SGD was trading range-bound, which can be seen by the small gains made compared to November.

Unfortunately for me, the pair seems to have stabilized in this congestion right above my forecasted price. Still, with the price just over 150 pips and 1 percent away from my forecast, all is not lost. I just need 1-2 days of weakness in the USD to 'turn a profit' here.

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More of the Same for EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.4547, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a large range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4515, almost no change in prices for several years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since December of last year we've been trading in a tight range that fits inside the larger congestion area noted above. On our second chart b…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

So far one part of my forecast above is coming true, while the other is giving me mixed results. According to the second chart above, we said that on the daily chart every rally has been retraced.

This is what has happened in December, with the EUR/PLN dropping from the 4.5057 high to a low of 4.3824 yesterday.

We are currently quoted at 4.4035, around 1.1 percent below my targeted price. The first part of my forecast remains unfulfilled, so far. I will need more mean reversion, this time to the upside to bring me close to my 4.4547 forecast.

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Gains for EUR/SEK WIll Not Last

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.9145, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Resistance #Breakout #Sweden #Range #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK finally managed to break above a two-year resistance line at 9.7256. But I don't think these gains will last and here's why. We're now quoted at 9.9140, only 1.9 percent away from the resistance. This is a fairly small amount.
But more important, this type of breakouts have happened many times in the past few years and it always ended in tears for the bears. Take a look at the chart below. We mark several bullish breakouts and they all ended with prices reverting deep towards the mea…
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fxsurprise8 28 Nov.

So far the general theme of my forecast has been correct. The EUR/SEK is currently quoted at 9.7746, well below the highs reached back in October.

As recent history shows (see the second chart above) breakouts in this pair tend to fail. After hitting a high of 10.0808 on US election day, it has been down ever since for the EUR/SEK.

Few days ago we hit a low of 9.7409 and we're now trading at 9.7746, about 1.4% away from my forecasted price. Let's hope that mean-reversion kicks in again, this time pushing prices higher from oversold territory.

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EUR/PLN Settles in a Congestion Area

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3041, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty #Pnl
Since the EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3059, only 3.15% away, a negligible amount for years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since August of this year we've been trading in a tight range inside the larger congestion area noted above. First we rallied to a…
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Swiss Franc Little Changed

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9716, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Range #Swissy #Snb Shocker #Range Bound #Swiss Peg
The Swiss Franc will continue to trade little changed against the US Dollar. In September the pair closed lower by only 128 pips, with a high to low range of only 245 pips. Furthermore notice how on the daily chart below there have been no major price changes since March of this year. We opened April 2016 at 0.9611 and we're currently quoted only 101 pips higher at 0.9712.
But let's zoom out a bit. Look at the monthly chart below. That giant spikey bar in the middle is the SNB peg removal in Jan…
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No Clear Trends Seen in AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.052, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range #New Zealand Dollar
No clear trend can be seen in the AUD/NZD. Volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019 in April 2015. But no major changes happened in price as we saw the pair snap back from the extremes.
The two economies of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked thus range-bound movement seems to the norm for this pair. The short-term daily chart below confirm this view. We've made no progress in this pair since June of this year. Furthermore th…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The AUD/NZD is now quoted at 1.0640, about 120 pips above my forecasted price. The monthly range has been fairly small as well at only 260 pips, with a high at 1.0764 and a low at 1.0504.

Furthermore we still remain deep inside the now five-month range that started back in June, with a high at 1.0771 and the five-month low at 1.0236.

The three arguments above confirm my original analysis from above that there are no clear trends in this pair. I will need a helping hand from the market to move prices a bit closer to my target though.

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EUR/PLN Still Inside Five-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2963, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #EU #Euro #Poland #50 Retracement #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2964, only 3.37% away. This is a negligible amount for four years and 9 months of trading.
On the lower time-frames things aren't looking great for momentum traders either. Notice how directionless ranges prevail here as well. Another reason why am I betting on the pair staying near the current price is t…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The EUR/PLN is now trading at 4.3095 (bid), a distance of only 0.31% from my target price at 4.2963.

The total monthly range in this pair has been 861 pips,with a high at 4.3020 and a low at 4.2585. While in pips this seems high, in percentage terms this is only 2 percent.

Price movements have range-bound as well. After we opened the month at 4.3020 first we fell a low of 4.2585, then rallied to a high of 4.3446, before falling back close to the opening price (now at 4.3095).

In short the month has been slow, with prices trading in a range that's inside the bigger range noted above.

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fxsurprise8 1 Nov.

Let's do another update and this time we'll add some charts as well. On the picture above we can see an updated version of our chart.

Notice how the monthly range during October fits neatly inside the larger congestion area this year. And that range is inside the 5-year congestion that started back in 2012.

With prices now quoted at 4.3123, only 0.37% away from my target , betting on prices staying range-bound is showing to be a good bet. There's still some time left in the contest and with the momentum during the past 24h tilting toward the downside, a more accurate forecast seems likely.

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fxsurprise8 2 Nov.

Time for a final update! According to the charts at 12:00 the pair was trading at 4.3143. This is 0.41% away from my 4.2963 forecast. Likely not good enough for 1st but depending on the accuracy of others, it could lend me a spot near the top.

See the chart above that demonstrates why my forecast worked so well. October is shown by a rectangle. Notice how the 2% range we had this month is within the bounds of the red lines.

The two red lines mark this year's range for EUR/PLN. And this year's range in within the congestion area that started back in 2012. This area is marked with black lines.

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