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USD/CHF rally has been impressive, 850 pips in just three months with half of the gains recorded last month. The pair broke above parity level on Friday. Today, it extended to 1.0050, the highest since last May. Correction, when it comes, will probably be a sharp one. For now, the parity level should provide initial support.
al_dcdemo's Blog
U.S. dollar rallies as Fed stays on track
Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
USD/JPY stalls after 250 pip rally
After a rally from the lows near 108.80 post FOMC, USD/JPY took a breather on Friday. Whether the rally will continue also depends on Fed speakers and whether they will side more with Kashkari/Kaplan (cautious) or with Yellen (hawkish).
100 DMA near 111.80 is the initial hurdle ahead of the 2017 trendline resistance near 112.50. 200 DMA (110.70) is the immediate support . 110 - 110.50 area should now hold if bulls are to remain in control. Otherwise, we'll probably see a retest of the year's low…
100 DMA near 111.80 is the initial hurdle ahead of the 2017 trendline resistance near 112.50. 200 DMA (110.70) is the immediate support . 110 - 110.50 area should now hold if bulls are to remain in control. Otherwise, we'll probably see a retest of the year's low…
Swissie snaps back to parity level
USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern.
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
Cable starts the month with a rally
Start of the new month has seen British pound bulls step up. No particular driver has been cited and the pound rallied despite weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI. That speaks of underlying strength as the pound is bought across the board with GBP/JPY move particularly notable.
Cable closed above 50 DMA and 1.25 level yesterday what makes today's move a logical continuation. November high (1.2675) is the immediate resistance but a stronger one may come in closer to July low and 100 DMA, near …
Cable closed above 50 DMA and 1.25 level yesterday what makes today's move a logical continuation. November high (1.2675) is the immediate resistance but a stronger one may come in closer to July low and 100 DMA, near …
EURo to remain well bid in October
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above the long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows…
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above the long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows…
Yen stalls ahead of 110
USD/JPY rose in six out of seven last days, rallying 380 pips from two-year lows set last Tuesday near 105.50. Stronger supply into 110 is no surprise as the pair pulled back today.
The area between 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing and 110 level is the immediate resistance, reinforced by 50 DMA approaching from above. If 108 - 108.50 holds, then we may see another attempt at the aforementioned area.
The area between 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing and 110 level is the immediate resistance, reinforced by 50 DMA approaching from above. If 108 - 108.50 holds, then we may see another attempt at the aforementioned area.
Aussie finds some sellers
Aussie rallied almost 800 pips from the seven-year low, set in January near 0.6825. Last swing was particularly strong and after a proper stop-run above 0.75 level, the pair is finally finding some sellers.
It is possible that the pair will see some backing and filling in the days ahead. There's plenty of support levels for the bulls to lean against with 0.72 - 0.725 a potential bull/bear line in sand.
It is possible that the pair will see some backing and filling in the days ahead. There's plenty of support levels for the bulls to lean against with 0.72 - 0.725 a potential bull/bear line in sand.
EURo looks supported
Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since.
1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.
1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.
Cable holds 1.50
Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1).
The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the m…
The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the m…