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USD/CHF rally has been impressive, 850 pips in just three months with half of the gains recorded last month. The pair broke above parity level on Friday. Today, it extended to 1.0050, the highest since last May. Correction, when it comes, will probably be a sharp one. For now, the parity level should provide initial support.
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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
U.S. dollar rallies as Fed stays on track
Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
USD/JPY stalls after 250 pip rally
After a rally from the lows near 108.80 post FOMC, USD/JPY took a breather on Friday. Whether the rally will continue also depends on Fed speakers and whether they will side more with Kashkari/Kaplan (cautious) or with Yellen (hawkish).
100 DMA near 111.80 is the initial hurdle ahead of the 2017 trendline resistance near 112.50. 200 DMA (110.70) is the immediate support . 110 - 110.50 area should now hold if bulls are to remain in control. Otherwise, we'll probably see a retest of the year's low…
100 DMA near 111.80 is the initial hurdle ahead of the 2017 trendline resistance near 112.50. 200 DMA (110.70) is the immediate support . 110 - 110.50 area should now hold if bulls are to remain in control. Otherwise, we'll probably see a retest of the year's low…
Pound Targeting 1.3500?
The Pound could be targeting the 1.3500 round level in June. Exhibit A is the chart below. Notice how after a strong +900 pips rally from the lows the pair is now consolidating. The fact that we're currently quoted less then 200 pips below the highs signals to me that this is just a healthy retracement on the way to more gains. The UK election is coming up soon and that should act as a price catalyst as well.
But what could be our target? The nearest resistance level can be found at the 1.3448 s…
But what could be our target? The nearest resistance level can be found at the 1.3448 s…
Swissie snaps back to parity level
USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern.
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
Cable to Rally Post-Brexit
I expect Cable to rally in the aftermath of the start of Brexit negotiations. First reason for this is the fact that the worst is now behind the UK. Markets have pummelled the Pound in the ground already discounted a lot of negative scenarios. Thus a positive surprise could led to large GBP rally.
The second reason is our first chart above. Notice the three bottoms pattern. Some may see an irregular Head and Shoulders formation. In any case it looks like the bears have checked out and the bulls…
The second reason is our first chart above. Notice the three bottoms pattern. Some may see an irregular Head and Shoulders formation. In any case it looks like the bears have checked out and the bulls…
Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
Aussie Back on the Offensive
The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
USDmxn
Analytic Method: Candle patterns
Weekly/Monthly Analysis
In this market, there is a lot of selling pressure on both charts, as the exchange rate retreated quickly after making a new high. This pressure is just a run off before another rally. The long wick and hammer formed last month wold have given a good sign of this month's downtrend.
the week's chart also show a severe decline of the exchange rates due to increased selling pressure. The main trend is an uptrend, so I see a likelihood of rene…
Weekly/Monthly Analysis
In this market, there is a lot of selling pressure on both charts, as the exchange rate retreated quickly after making a new high. This pressure is just a run off before another rally. The long wick and hammer formed last month wold have given a good sign of this month's downtrend.
the week's chart also show a severe decline of the exchange rates due to increased selling pressure. The main trend is an uptrend, so I see a likelihood of rene…