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I'm not sure about everyone else but I wasn't expected ECB not to upgrade their QE program from 60B euro to at least 75B euros. This was a big disappointment even for the market itself as the build up in expectation ahead of the meeting was quite huge. Based on the latest COT report the net speculative short position ahead of the meeting where as high as they where in March when again happened to get a swing low. It never chase to amaze me how accurate this can be use as an contrarian indicator,…
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Last month of the year
Since this is the last month of the year it will be your last chance to make up for the year but at the same time it can break you out as this month looks quite heavy in terms of macro data and big monetary policy decision across the FX landscape. The seasonality patterns during an environment which looks to be under the influence of mainly the monetary policy as the main driver of FX price can be altered.
Make no mistake about it but both ECB action this week to upgrade their QE program will ha…
Make no mistake about it but both ECB action this week to upgrade their QE program will ha…
December Fed Liftoff anf ECB Upgrade QE
The final two months of the year are going to be very interesting not just in the fact that we have strong seasonality at play but more because the fundamental themes are going to play an even major role. If Fed does indeed hike the interest rates, which was my thesis from beginning of this summer because if you look at all of the other major monetary policy changes Fed has a thing to do them around December see QE, tapering etc.
If that would be the case coupled with ECB taking action and upgra…
If that would be the case coupled with ECB taking action and upgra…
October Fx Market Outlook
In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the marke…
Nikkei 225 - USD/JPY Correlation
Last year around the summer time I've made this prediction about Nikkei 225, read more here: Nikkei 225 Will Revive Yen Bearish Trend?
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
Waiting for ECB Decision.
Today is ECB turn to hit the front stage, after RBA, BOE and yesterday BOC interest rate decision. Every now and than ECB meets outside of Frankfurt and today's meeting will be held in Cyprus. The market consensus is that ECB isn't going to make any monetary policy changes, however ECB more likely is going to release the execution details of the QE programme.
There are already some rumors in the market that gives highs odds that: "ECB may start buying securities as part of its QE programme on …
There are already some rumors in the market that gives highs odds that: "ECB may start buying securities as part of its QE programme on …
EUR/USD Tapering Effect
I've posted this chart and analysis of EUR/USD on my linkedin page last week just before the FOMC statement and I would like top post that analysis here as well as this chart as been a great map for those how traded EUR/USD this year.
This is the final update of the famous EUR/USD tapering effect chart which has been providing a great map to trade EUR/USD over the last few months. Last time I spoke about it was here: …
This is the final update of the famous EUR/USD tapering effect chart which has been providing a great map to trade EUR/USD over the last few months. Last time I spoke about it was here: …
Silver First target Hit. Gold heading towards $900
Silver and gold have been on tears this week and it comes as no surprise here as the Fed finally has put an end to the almighty QE program. Silver has been hitting my first target of $16.66 projected by the October 2011-April 2013 rectangle pattern (see Figure 1). You can check out my last article about silver through my blog history.
It is no surprise that after Silver broke last month key support level of $18.20 it was just a matter of time for gold to follow suit…
Figure 1. Silver Weekly Chart
It is no surprise that after Silver broke last month key support level of $18.20 it was just a matter of time for gold to follow suit…
Preapearing the Week Ahead
If last week didn't fall behind market expectation an it has produced some impressive moves across the FX market don't expect market activity to cool off, the probability still remains in favor of this trend of higher volatility to persist. The current Central Banks monetary policy divergence across developed economies may play a factor in favor of higher volatility.
- Europe data:
Despite a lot of data coming from the manufacturing sector, the main event remains the 6 November ECB meeting…
Gold Price Action Reminiscence of 2013
If you haven't seen up until now my last update on Silver I strongly suggest to check it out here: Metals Outlook. Silver Leading The Way Down because that's key to understand why gold is going to follow silver and break lower.
In my last update about gold, and you can check that blog post here:Gold Double Inverted H&S Bottom? I was arguing that on the daily chart we may be developing an inverted H&S pattern which was never confirmed as we need a break of the neck-line. Howe…