Gemeinschaft
Blog
al_dcdemo's Blog

al_dcdemo's Blog

Avatar

Kiwi to fall further in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Pullback #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #200 Day Sma #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - …
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

8 Kommentar
ehr Kommentare anzeigen
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 4: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes after that.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: New Zealand dollar spiked on better than expected inflation report (1.9% year-over-year) overnight but pared all gains in subsequent hours as RBNZ's own inflation measure showed just 1.4%. We are still waiting for Winston Peters to decide which coalition his party will join. Kiwi traders have been understandably cautious after 150-pip rally from the lows near 0.7050. 0.72 is the initial hurdle on the way to 0.73 - 0.7350 resistance area. 200 DMA near 0.7150 is the immediate support ahead of a stronger one near 0.71.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the Japanese yen.

oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Kiwi pullback may not yet be over

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Aug. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 2 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Pullback #Golden Cross #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held. The pair broke above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 201…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

10 Kommentar
ehr Kommentare anzeigen
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Kiwi remains supported but contained ahead of the general election on the weekend. There's also New Zealand second quarter GDP coming up on Wednesday evening (Thursday morning in N.Z.), just a couple of hours after the FOMC decision. The pair is bumping into 0.73 - 0.7350 area, which capped the pair in 2016 and earlier this year, and includes 50 DMA. A successful break would put 0.75 back into focus. 0.72 is the first stronger support, reinforced by 100 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Sep.

UPDATE 8: New Zealand GDP came in as expected, at 0.8% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, but that did little to support the pair which was already being offered following more hawkish than expected Fed. Pre-election adjustments also going on. The pair traded to as high as 0.7430 yesterday but has so far retraced to 0.73. It is currently stalling near 50 DMA. Some further correction is possible with 0.7250 and then 0.72 the support levels to watch. 0.7350 is the initial resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in treasury bond yields after more hawkish than expected Fed last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Kiwi dollar looks heavy as it holds just above 200 DMA. The currency is being weighed on by the wait for the election outcome, which could still take a few more weeks, by October 7th or even 12th. The mentioned moving average is the immediate support and August low is the next one. If that gives way, 61.8% retracement of the May - July rally will come into focus. 0.72 is the first stronger resistance level.

oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

EURo gaps higher on French election results

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 24 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/JPY #EUR/USD #Gap #Pullback #Polls #D1 Chart #French Election
Emmanuel Macron (23.9%) and Marine Le Pen (21.4%) are the winners of the first round of the French presidental election. Pollsters did a good job this time around with the results coming in largely as expected. Euro gapped higher overnight as Macron victory remains the most likely scenario.
The pair traded above 1.0930 in pre-market and opened just above 1.09, that's about 180 pips from Friday closing levels. EUR/JPY gap was even more impressive, close to 380 pips. Latest polls suggest Macron's …
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Kiwi pulls back ahead of the FOMC

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 1 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Fomc #NZD/USD #Pullback #Labour Market Report #Profit Taking #D1 Chart
New Zealand quarterly Employment Change came in as expected, at 0.8%. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.2% on the back of higher Participation Rate (70.5%). Labour Cost Index slightly disappointed at 0.4%.
Kiwi added nearly five cents from the low of 0.6860 in late December and pulled back nearly a full cent after the release of otherwise solid labour market data. Profit-taking after yesterday's surge to 0.7350 and ahead of the FOMC might have been a bigger factor.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Swissie pulling back towards the parity level

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 8 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/CHF #USD/CHF #Pullback #D1 Chart
Since topping out above 1.02, USD/CHF has remained well bid. The pullback is currently just over 150 pips. The pair has also been supported via EUR/CHF, which rallied from below 1.07 and is now trading firmly above 1.08.
There are some strong technical levels near the parity level, including October high and 2015 - 2016 trendline with 50 DMA closing in from below. Another leg higher would target year's high at 1.0255 and cycle-high at 1.0330.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Traders buying yen, franc and dollar into the weekend

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 10 June  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Pullback #Risk Off #Commodity Currencies #D1 Chart #Brexit
We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY.
Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into …
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Loonie pauses near 1.30 big figure level

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 21 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #Boc #Pullback #D1 Chart
After relentless, so far 1800 pip, pullback, driven by stabilization in oil, lack of policy action by the BOC and relative resilience of the Canadian economy, Loonie found some support near the big figure level at 1.30.
The level coincides with 2008/2009 highs in 1.3000 - 1.3065 zone and 61.8% retracement of the May 2015 to January 2016 upswing. The next major level is 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend near 1.27. March 11th low (~1.3165) shall provide some resistance.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Loonie approaching 200 DMA

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 3 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Pullback #D1 Chart #Oil Stabilization
In line with stabilization in oil, Loonie embarked on a pullback which took it from near 1.47 to below 1.34 levels. With 1300+ pips, this is the largest pullback in the pair since the uptrend began in 2011.
The pair is currently holding just below the 1.345 - 1.35 band, which includes September 2015 high, 23.6% retracement of the aforementioned uptrend and 1.35 big figure level. 1.325 - 1.33 (November - December pivot, 200 DMA, 76.4% retracement) is the next stronger level to watch before 2014 -…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Aussie may retest 0.70 in the days ahead

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 29 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Pullback #D1 Chart #Outside Down Day
Even though the pair failed at 0.7250 three times in February and posted an outside down day on Friday, technical picture doesn't look bad at all and there's plenty of levels where demand may start coming in, should the pullback continue.
50 DMA just below 0.71 is the immediate support ahead of 0.7050 but the real test will come at 0.70. Staying above is bullish while a drop below would imply a retest of January lows and possibly 0.6750.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Aussie fails to rally on a decent capex report

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 25 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Pullback #Capex #D1 Chart
Australian Private Capital Expenditure (capex) report was just released and it came out better than expected. Aussie surprisingly fell after the release, which may be a sign that a deeper pullback is in the making.
0.7250 (broken September - December trendline, 200 DMA) remains a formidable resistance. 100 DMA (~0.7150) is the immediate support ahead of 50 DMA (~0.71) and 0.70 big figure level.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
mehr