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A pull back in a longer downtrend for JPN.IDX

Jignesh Publié 20 avr comme Analyse sur JPN.IDX/JPY, Cible: 18010, Date: 1 de juin, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #JPY #Japan #Equities #Channel #Retracement #Pullback #Elliottwave #Jpn IDX/JPY
The JPN.IDX is in a longer term down trend, that started in the first week of August 2015. However, the instrument caught a bid at it's 200 Weekly SMA. As well, smaller time frames suggest a bullish correction is already under way, which has potential to last throughout the Month of May.
Levels
15794 - Jan Spike Low
16340 - Jan lowest Daily close & early Feb Daily spike highs
17290 - March Highs
17871 - Jan Highs
18260 - End of 2015 Daily close
The chart below is a monthly chart showing the leve…
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Jignesh 5 mai

Ahead of the start of May, we already saw the pull back in the bullish trend.  The BOJ, which had given a signal to the market that it would likely intervene in the markets, in a surprise move, did not do anything.  It acted as a catalyst for a sell off against the proposed bullish trend.  As we approach the bottom of the channel, we will be looking for a bounce over the next week, to hold the channel intact and affirm the bullish trend.

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USDCAD Struggles at Major Monthly Resistance

Jignesh Publié 30 avr comme Analyse sur USD/CAD, Cible: 1.2007, Date: 1 de juin, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Usdcad #Channel #Pullback #Support And Resistance #Candlesticks #Elliottwave #Trendlines #Fibonacci Retracements #Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Overview
USDCAD Has been struggling to take out Major Monthly Resistance since it first approached the area at the beginning of the year. The USD being in a long term uptrend caused the pair to consolidate in that area for several months. The month of April however, has shown an engulfing Monthly Candle which supports the idea of a larger pullback taking place.
Levels
1.2797/1.2800 - Jan 2015 Highs / Monthly Resistance (Late 2008) / Monthly Resistance
1.2475/1.2525 - Monthly Channel Upside Resis…
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Jignesh 14 mai

The fib levels from (x) to (a) has a confluence at the 23.6% fib which comes in at 1.2007.  That area is a technical level which has been marked above and is also the target for this analysis.  That will be the first area to watch for to the upside for a rejection and continuation of downtrend.

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Jignesh 15 mai

The retracement has continued today.  The important level 1.2007 also the 23.6% retracement was taken out in early trading.  Upside Fib targets are now the 50% fib at 1.2050, but it is more likely that we see the 61.8 Fib level at 1.2080 before the selling resumes to complete the final leg.

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Jignesh 20 mai

The retracement has continued higher with fairly strong momentum as well.  Today the pair is capped by it's 88.8% retracement.  This level is the last level to hold, if it does not, the existing count would be invalidated and a revised count would need to be looked at.

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Jignesh 20 mai

The 88.8 fib comes in at 1.2242

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Jignesh 22 mai

USDCAD has been holding at the 88.8 Fib.  Today has several fundamental risk events that can add some volatility, and will be looking for a move down here to confirm that this area is in fact holding and we now continue the downtrend, and mark this wave as (b).

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EURAUD - Daily Engulfing candle at 38.2% retracement

Jignesh Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/AUD, Cible: 1.3676, Date: 3 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #EUR #Fibonacci #EUR/AUD #Pullback #Downtrend #Candlesticks #200Ma #Engulfing
Overview
The EURAUD has been pulling back from a downtrend that started at the beginning of this year.
The daily engulfing candle at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement hints that the pull back has completed and the downtrend may resume
Levels
1.4576 - 38.2% Retracement on Daily
1.3676 - Daily Trendline projection for Nov 2
1.3588 - 127% Extension on Daily (1.3800 - 1.4587)
1.3530 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
Figure 1 - EURAUD Daily - Engulfing candle at 38.2% Fib retracement

Figure
…
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4 Commentaires
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Jignesh 6 oct

The week closed off to draw a doji on the weekly chart, and the new week has the pair testing last week's low ahead of the London Open.  A daily close below this level (1.4340) will confirm a reversal is most likely on it's way.

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Jignesh 9 oct

EURAUD is struggling to break through it's weekly range.  There has been a spike down which saw buyer's stepping in.  Once again, the pair is approaching that key 1.4340 opening range level.  A break below is required to build momentum to the downside.

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Jignesh 13 oct

The pair has traded through the previous high to make a new high.  The 200 Daily MA comes in focus at 1.4626 to put pressure to the downside with a fib level slightly above at 1.4661 to contain any spikes.  This will be the last line in the sand for the pair for any downside pressure to remain.

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Jignesh 24 oct

The 200 Daily SMA has held, and the downside looks promising.  The targets in this prediction still remain valid, however the completion time may take longer as the pair has spent quite a bit of time consolidating.

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