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DAY 18 - THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

alifari Postado 18 Ago  em #Trader's blog #Thinking #Probability
"When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance"

Forex trading forums are common place where retail forex traders post their price chart with technical analysis and justification for their trades. Out of these trades some trades end up in profit and some in losses. When these traders experience a losing trade then they somewhat doubt their analysis and often post charts with a query "Why …
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mcquak 18 Ago

Agree. Having statistical edge is something we need to be successful in trading...

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October Seasonal Forex Paatterns

Daytrader21 Postado 1 Out  em #Trader's blog #AUD #JPY #Forex #Euro #Patterns #Pound #Probability #Seasonality

Since a new month has started the best way to asserts the probability of where the market is likely to be heading in this month is for us to look at the seasonality patterns. The seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.
You can find more details how this seasonal patterns affect the exchange rate and more importantly how to correctly us…
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JuliaBF 1 Out

thanks for detailed analysis))))

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Texas Hold 'Em Poker Tournaments And Value Investing

1darkmatter1 Updated 29 Jun  em #Economics #Investing #Poker #Risk #Reasoning #Value #Uncertainity #Quantitative #Probability
Poker and investing are both about decisions amidst risk and uncertainty, played out in real time. The core of both poker and investing is the maximization of average profit based upon probability. In both activities, intuition is a dangerous guide. Quantitative reasoning, instead, is key to exploiting counter-parties. Both rely on the branch of economics known as utility theory. Utility theorists quantify preference orders such that a utility maximizer can determine how to make rational decisio…
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CAD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Postado 10 Nov como análise CAD/CHF, Alvo: 0.8680, Data: 2 de janeiro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #Price Action #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Probability #Downward Channel #Downside Momentum
The CAD/CHF currency pair does not form a major pair even though the swiss franc is considered a major currency, but over the past year it has provided many trading opportunities.
If we zoom in on a daily chart we can see that the downside movement started from 0.9540 high all the way down to 0.8520 low, over the last year has formed a downward channel that conforms with the Elliot Wave requirement of a five waves sequence, so as the down swing leg towards the 0.8520 low is the wave E for the do…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 15 Nov

Update 1: The market has barely moved and we are still in the 0.88-0.87 consolidation zone. Wave one is completed and from here on we should expect some kind of correction but we should not go below the strat point if wave 1, 0.8520 support zone in oder for our prediction to work out

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Daytrader21 22 Nov

Update 2: We finally broke the 0.8700 support level and developed the wave 2, but we can still go all the way down to the starting point of wave 1, around 0.8520 zone. Expecting more consolidation ahead as based on Elliot Wave this stage of the price action is very slow

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Daytrader21 29 Nov

Update 3: We're now testing the bottom of wave E which must hold in order for our analysis to be valid. So far the market in the last 3 days has failed to break below suggesting that buyers are coming in the market. This should be wave 2.The next resistance is around 0.8760

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Daytrader21 9 Dez

Update 4: the fact that we broke below wave E 0.8500 level it has invalidated our strategy, however this week can be crucial if we can reverse the current downside momentum and close above 0.8500 it may turn into support level once again

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Daytrader21 14 Dez

Update5: The current downside move has completed a five wave sequence and we already have sign that the market has bottomed at 0.8330. Next big resistance level is around 0.8500 round number here we should see some reaction but the momentum may carry on as it's year end flow.

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