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EURo to hit 1.225 by February

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2175, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Political Risks
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

UPDATE 10: EUR/USD is testing 2017 high (1.2090). A successful break would target 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline (1.2170), and then 2008 low (1.2330). U.S. jobs and wages report tomorrow could provide fuel for a larger move.

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al_dcdemo 12 Jan.

UPDATE 11: European currencies outperformed today. EUR/USD gained about 100 pips and is poised to post a highest weekly close in three years. 1.2165 (50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline) is a big area. A break above would open door to 1.23 - 1.2330 (LT trendline support, 2008 low) and put 1.25 (LT trendline resistance) into focus.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 12: As expected, ECB kept policy steady. Draghi didn't try to talk down euro, which gave it another boost higher. Later, U.S. president Trump backtracked on what Mnuchin said a day earlier, saying that ultimately he "wants to see a strong dollar", which prompted a round of profit taking among U.S. dollar bears. EUR/USD already recovered half of that fall and appears ready to retest 1.25.

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EURo to climb further up in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1950, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Political Risks
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 19 Dec.

UPDATE 5: EUR/USD rose almost 100 pips yesterday, in what was a lively Monday. The pair is trading near the lower extreme of the 2017 channel. A successful bounce would target 1.2150 and then 1.23. A breakdown would put 1.14 - 1.15 back into focus.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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EURo to retrace some more in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1725, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Correction #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Political Risks
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 11 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar recorded a losing week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate plans to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Sunday news from Germany about Free Democrats breaking off Merkel's coalition was meet with a 75 pip decline after the open. Late shorts were squeezed in European trading, to just above 1.18, where new round of selling began. 1.17 may not yield easily.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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EURo falls below 1.05 on the first trading day

al_dcdemo Updated 3 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Asian Session #D1 Chart #Political Risks
Euro fell back below 1.05 on the first trading day of the year but has already recouped half of those losses in today's Asian session. Political risks are likely to have the pair capped in the first half of the year at least.
1.05 - 1.055 is the initial resistance and then stronger one at 1.06 - 1.065. A sustained hold below 2015 low (1.046) would target 2016 low (1.035) and then area around 1.025.
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