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EUR/PLN Still in that Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2520, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Years #Range Trading #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5.5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2518. This is around 4.3 percent, a negligible amount for several years of trading in forex.
On the weekly chart above we see the multiple years range the pair has been stuck in. The high of this range is at 4.60 while the low is at 3.95. But these are only the price extremes. The majority of the time th…
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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Five-years-long Range Still in Play

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2318, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2303. That's just above 4.7 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
In addition to this the chart clearly shows that the price remains inside the bounds of this range, with a high at 4.5961 and a low at 3.9661.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks somewhat simil…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

The EUR/PLN opened April at 4.2164. From here the currency pair rallied to a high of 4.2834, only to fall to a low of 4.2112 few days later.

We are currently quoted at 4.2225, only 93 pips away from my forecasted price, or <0.20% in percentage terms. With a bit of luck, I could get a good prize in this month's contest!

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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3054, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Nothing New for the Polish Zloty

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.4033, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
Some things never change and this seems to be the case for the EUR/PLN currency pair. First let's again take a look at the monthly chart. I've shared this chart in previous TAs to show just how range-bound this pair has been in the past few years. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4024. That's just above 1 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the second picture we see that trend…
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More of the Same for EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.4547, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a large range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4515, almost no change in prices for several years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since December of last year we've been trading in a tight range that fits inside the larger congestion area noted above. On our second chart b…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

So far one part of my forecast above is coming true, while the other is giving me mixed results. According to the second chart above, we said that on the daily chart every rally has been retraced.

This is what has happened in December, with the EUR/PLN dropping from the 4.5057 high to a low of 4.3824 yesterday.

We are currently quoted at 4.4035, around 1.1 percent below my targeted price. The first part of my forecast remains unfulfilled, so far. I will need more mean reversion, this time to the upside to bring me close to my 4.4547 forecast.

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EUR/PLN Settles in a Congestion Area

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3041, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty #Pnl
Since the EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3059, only 3.15% away, a negligible amount for years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since August of this year we've been trading in a tight range inside the larger congestion area noted above. First we rallied to a…
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EUR/PLN Still Inside Five-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2963, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #EU #Euro #Poland #50 Retracement #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2964, only 3.37% away. This is a negligible amount for four years and 9 months of trading.
On the lower time-frames things aren't looking great for momentum traders either. Notice how directionless ranges prevail here as well. Another reason why am I betting on the pair staying near the current price is t…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The EUR/PLN is now trading at 4.3095 (bid), a distance of only 0.31% from my target price at 4.2963.

The total monthly range in this pair has been 861 pips,with a high at 4.3020 and a low at 4.2585. While in pips this seems high, in percentage terms this is only 2 percent.

Price movements have range-bound as well. After we opened the month at 4.3020 first we fell a low of 4.2585, then rallied to a high of 4.3446, before falling back close to the opening price (now at 4.3095).

In short the month has been slow, with prices trading in a range that's inside the bigger range noted above.

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fxsurprise8 1 Nov.

Let's do another update and this time we'll add some charts as well. On the picture above we can see an updated version of our chart.

Notice how the monthly range during October fits neatly inside the larger congestion area this year. And that range is inside the 5-year congestion that started back in 2012.

With prices now quoted at 4.3123, only 0.37% away from my target , betting on prices staying range-bound is showing to be a good bet. There's still some time left in the contest and with the momentum during the past 24h tilting toward the downside, a more accurate forecast seems likely.

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fxsurprise8 2 Nov.

Time for a final update! According to the charts at 12:00 the pair was trading at 4.3143. This is 0.41% away from my 4.2963 forecast. Likely not good enough for 1st but depending on the accuracy of others, it could lend me a spot near the top.

See the chart above that demonstrates why my forecast worked so well. October is shown by a rectangle. Notice how the 2% range we had this month is within the bounds of the red lines.

The two red lines mark this year's range for EUR/PLN. And this year's range in within the congestion area that started back in 2012. This area is marked with black lines.

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More of the Same for the EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3615, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Bollinger Bands #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Polish Zloty #Controlled Currency
The EUR/PLN has been stuck in a range for the past few years. We opened the year 2012 at 4.4464 and we're not quoted at 4.3593, a move of only 2.2 percent.
The shorter-term charts are painting a similar picture. We're trading barely changed compared to one month ago. On the weekly chart below we can see that this pair respects the Bollinger Bands. Whenever the pair ventured outside these Bands, it was snapped back inside. We're now right at the middle of the BBands, a neutral zone.
The powerful …
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

The EUR/PLN stayed mostly range-bound during September, albeit with a slight bearish bias. No clear trends can be seen yet as the bulls and the bears vie for supremacy.

During the past month a high of 4.3927 and a low of 4.2716 were hit. This is well within the bounds of the range marked with a rectangle above.

We're currently quoted at 4.3056, close to the lower Bollinger Band. Hopefully this will lead to some snap-back and bounce higher. My target is 1.4% higher so I will need a little push to hit it.

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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

Very little in terms of price changes today in the EUR/PLN. We opened at 4.2992, rallied to a high of 4.3189 and we're currently quoted at 4.2974. This is close to the daily lows at 4.3003.

We're still well within the monthly range. And like I mentioned in my previous update, this month's range is within the larger range marked with a rectangle in my original post.

I'm hoping to see the 4.3000 round figure hold and act as a springboard for future price gains in this pair. I'm still about 1.4% away from my forecasted price.

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EUR/PLN Still Undecided

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3552, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #EUR/PLN #Range Trading #Range Box #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN opened the year 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3434 down by only 2.2 percent lower. This is a tiny move considering the length of the examined period (over 5 years).
But lets drill down lower. On the daily chart below we see that the EUR/PLN has bounced back and is now headed downward. I think power play between these two charts (one up other down) will keep the EUR/PLN little changed in August.
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The spike to 4.5324 (shown on pic 2 above as the second rectangle) was completely retraced. Prices overshoot a bit and hit a low of 4.2503.

But from here we rallied back up and the EUR/PLN is now quoted at 4.3570, only 18 pips or 0.04% away from my target.

The 5-year range (charted in pic 1) is still in play as prices move like a tennis ball back and forth between the highs and lows. Eventually we'll get a breakout but until we do, banking on more of the same is a good choice.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Nothing materially has change since our last update. The EUR/PLN traded to a high of 4.3685 and a low of 4.3456.

But we are currently quoted at 4.3591, right in the middle of the range. So we can see the undecided market playing out on the lower timeframes as well.

This is around 0.10% away from my forecasted price. What happens from now to the end of the contest will be largely luck but I'm pleased that generally my prediction turned out well.

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