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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

Back in November we had an upthrust breakout above the current upward channel, but it proved to be a false breakout and now we're trading back within the channel boundaries. This false breakout is only telling us that at one point we had some eager buyers who for whatever reason wanted to be in this bullish move and usually that's how a trend move starts. And even thought we retraced back inside the channel that's a good sign as we don't want the market to move in a straight line as those usuall…
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Update 1: The market is still trying to recover from the 89.00 level and the current up leg is still intact and we should see momentum start accelerating to the upside only after we manage to break the 94.23 level which is also previous week high

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Update 2: Nothing much has happened as we continue to trade inside a very tight range between 94.00 resistance level and 92.00 support level. From here on it's all about in which direction we'll get the breakout . As per my analysis and due the strong seasonality tendencies we should break above the 94.00 level

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Trade Pattern Idea:USD/CAD Resuming the Uptrend (part 2

Recently I've made this prediction in the Technical Contest which I want to share it here as well, you can find that post here: USD/CAD Resuming the Uptrend (part 2 )
Last year I've posted my prediction in the Technical Analysis contest about USD/CAD, and at that time I said that USD/CAD is on the verge for a big upside movement. You can check out my prediction here: …
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AUD/NZD Trade pattern idea

AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the monthly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since Aprill 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
  • Figure 1. AUD/NZD Monthly chart, Multi Decade Support level.

On the Daily chart we can see much more closer the recent price a…
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This is an old analysis and the 1.0650 was the first resistance at that point and if you look there was the point where we stop before to continue upside again. I'm fascinating as how good this prediction was.

Metal_Mind avatar

i have a buy position on this one on my live account. I put my tp at 1.0980. From the looks of it has potential

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Good luck with that hope it will make you a nice profit:) cha ching:)

DumbAsArock avatar

I don't disagree with your NZD/USD. What I was showing was what actually happened in the futures market. My interpretation is correct, I think. For one thing it doesn't always work on futures. And it's less reliable using futures to predict the spot market, as I'm sure you know.

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@DumbAsArock you're right the futures are only a small part of the whole market.

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USDCAD Up trend entering in correction mode

The current USDCAD up trend has already entered in correction mode and we are expecting further consolidation before any big move to happen. The up drift from the last year low 0.9630 to 1.0610 high, has took shape of and 5 wedge rally within an upward channel. From the first picture we can see how each wave was constituted of 3 wave of minor degree which can be used as a map for future price action.
So, keeping that in consideration we can assume that for now we're going to retrace, as the w…
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Update 2: USDCAD has not completely invalidate my forecast although we are witnessing a strong up movement the market can form a triple top at around 1.0550 and limit any upside gain. So we still have some room to the upside but the structure of current up movement suggest is still corrective , we should wait and see if we can get some reaction at 1.0550

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Update 3: The market is showing sign of exhaustion after the recent rally. The structure of the rally suggest that we may revisit the bottom levels from where it started. The wave from the 1.0180 low to 1.0440 is the wave A of the correction, the wave from 1.0440 high to 1.0270 is the wave B and the projection suggest that the current high at 1.0495 is the wave C.

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Update 4: Although we are far from our target the fact that momentum has slowed down may suggest that we can get our price target. The current up wave it has already 5 waves formation so this is another sign that we may get a retracement. Look for a false breakout above 1.05 and than the correction to start.

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Update 5: In the last days the market has gone nowhere and we're still in the 1.05250-1.04000 range zone which took shape of an irregular triangle pattern that must be formed by 5 waves, we are in the last stage of this triangle and the only way we're going to see our target is to have a downside breakout below 1.0400

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Update 6: With this prediction I don't think there is enough time for it to come down to my target, however I do think that it will break lower as we already made 5 waves to the upside, this last spike up has shown the market has lost the upside momentum so expecting from here on market to sell of

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