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EURo skyrockets as ECB fails to deliver

al_dcdemo Updated 4 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Qe #EUR/USD #Fed #Parity #H1 Chart #Long Term Trendline #Deposit Rate
ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE.
Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.
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Swissie sells off

al_dcdemo Updated 3 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Fed #USD/CHF #Snb #Pullback #Parity #H1 Chart #Year's High
After taking out year's high and trading to the highest level since 2010 last week, the pair pulled back. It traded sideways since the beginning of the week but sold off sharply following the end of yesterday's European session.
There was likely some position squaring ahead of today's ECB meeting involved. Macro direction is still to the upside. Shorter term one will depend on the ECB today and the Fed in two weeks but there's always the SNB to support it. If the pullback continues, parity is th…
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EURo pulls back

al_dcdemo Updated 20 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Parity #Fomc Meeting Minutes #H1 Chart #U S Dollar Selling #Long Term Trendline
Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750.
Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.
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Swissie breaks parity

al_dcdemo Posted 9 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Breakout #USD/CHF #Pullback #Parity #H1 Chart
After breaking above September high (~0.9840) in late October, Swissie pulled back to retest it from above. The level held and the pair has continued to rally without making a significant pullback as was the pattern in the recent months.
This behaviour suggests that buyers have been eager to get on board of a move that could potentially extend to new five-year highs. March high (~1.0130) is the next target before the year's high (~1.03), set back in January. Parity level (1.00), which was broken…
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USD/CHF rally is gaining strength

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Parity #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs…
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al_dcdemo 18 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Swissie broke above the March high (~1.0130) in yesterday's trading and rose to the highest level since SNB abandoned EUR/CHF floor on January 15th. Year's high (~1.0290) is the next target. After that, some resistance is expected into 1.05 level and then at July/August 2010 highs near 1.0650. Support is expected at 1.01 and more at the parity level (1.00).

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Swiss franc was the loser of the week as it lost a cent and a quarter against the dollar. Weekly range was worth a cent and three quarters. The pair is still carried by technical momentum that has been in place since the current upswing began in mid October. The level the pair is trading at is the highest since SNB decided to discontinue EUR/CHF floor in January.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: As is usual, there's little of note on the calendar for the week ahead coming out from Switzerland. U.S., however, will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair is still in a breakout mode. It closed last week above March high (~1.0125) but below year's high (~1.03). The latter will be watched closely in the coming days.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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Swissie stalls ahead of parity

al_dcdemo Updated 30 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Fomc #Rally #USD/CHF #Pullback #Parity #H1 Chart
Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now.
September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.
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USD/CHF will gain in the near-term

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9625, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Parity #Snb Shocker #200 Day Sma #Bullish Technicals #Neutral Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarter…
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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: The pair ended the week near opening levels what may signal indecision in the market. Initial support is seen around 0.9350 and then between 0.9270 - 0.9300. If that gives way, a retest of May lows below 0.91 may ensue. On the upside, 50 and 100 DMA (currently just above 0.9450) are the first stronger levels of resistance, but the pair will need to convincingly break above 0.95 and 200 DMA to re-establish the bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: Even though the pair reversed half of post-NFP losses on Friday and proceeded with a strong decline on Monday, support at 0.9250 held twice before sending the pair back toward 0.94, to just below declining trendline (drawn off March, April and May highs) where it stalled and turned back lower. The pair ended the week slightly behind EUR/USD, but the weekly candle looks more convincing with regard to the trend continuation likehood.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Besides the Fed, the SNB is another central bank that will hold its meeting in the week ahead. No change from them is the most probable and widely expected outcome. The pair has been trading below 50, 100 and 200 DMA since the beginning of the month and, while it is holding below the averages (especially 200), the sellers appear to be in control. Trendline, drawn off March, April and May highs, will be the first level to watch on the upside.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 7: In the beginning of the week the pair mostly mirrored its cousin EUR/USD as it hasn't been able to break lower on Monday and then rocketed on Tuesday instead. The remaining three days were range-bound, but the range was wider and swings looked wilder. EUR/CHF flows were likely responsible for the part of this action as the Greek story and uncertainty was weighing on traders' decisions every day.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 8: There's nothing of note from Switzerland on the calendar for the week ahead. Saturday's Eurogroup Meeting and the rest of the weekend talks appear to be the single most important fundamental factor. Given that the pair usually closely follows the Euro, we may get huge gap open on Monday if we get a deal or if potential for Greek default rises. Especially in the latter case it will be interesting to see the reaction in the pair.

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USD/CHF to stay in range

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9457, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Support #Trendline #USD/CHF #Range #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Weak Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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WallStreet6 1 June

Great job! Congrats! On the bull's eye!

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al_dcdemo 1 June

Thanks! Yep, it's looking good. :)

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week strongly, adding 30 pips in the Asian session and so far 50 pips in the European session. 0.95 level acts as a decent barrier and the pair will need support from the US data if it wants to trade back above it. It's few minutes till the end of the forecast period and the pair will end up close to the target. I'm very happy with the analysis as the pair nicely conformed to my expectations.

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Eberhardt122 4 June

thanks for sharing the advice Al!

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al_dcdemo 4 June

Thanks! But it really is not meant as an advice, it's just a view of what I perceive as likely to happen. All standard disclaimers apply. :)

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USD/CHF up towards parity

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9968, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Bullish #USD/CHF #Uptrend #Pullback #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Turnaround
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: Both technicals and shorter-term fundamentals point to further losses in the week ahead, although some sort of pullback and/or re-test of pre-NFP levels is not unlikely in the very short term. First stronger support on the downside comes in at October 15th 2014 low and February 2nd high near 0.9350.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: Even though SNB removed 1.20 cap, USD/CHF returned to the old habit of mirroring EUR/USD movement, while EUR/CHF is trading around 1.05 with declining volatility. The pair opened the week near 0.95 and, after it failed to follow through on post-NFP gains, reversed higher and climbed all the way to (and through) 0.98 level to close the week just below that. Weekly candle looks bullish - long real body with the close above March 31 high and near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: If the pair won't continue to rally on Monday then there will likely be some consolidation, probably at least until US Retail Sales report on Tuesday or perhaps even until ECB meeting on Wednesday. Initial support comes in at March 31 high near 0.9750 and then some more closer to 0.9650. If 0.98 goes, there may not be much resistance before 0.9980 and parity.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Percentage-wise the pair was the second best performer on the week. Again, price action closely resembled that of EUR/USD, but due to slow slide in EUR/CHF, the downtrend in the pair was more pronounced. Even though it didn't manage to break below April 3 low (0.9480) it closed below 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Long weekly candle that almost engulfs previous week's one and closes near the low also looks bearish.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: There's few CHF related events in the week ahead (Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Expectations) but they are not expected to impact prices much. Given continuing slide in EUR/CHF and imminent break lower in USD/CHF, there's risk that the SNB might start to intervene (verbally or otherwise) in the markets. If the pair convincingly breaks 0.95, stronger demand may come in at weekly support near 0.9360.

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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0557, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bullish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Channel Line #Key Reversal #Bearish Technicals
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: After NFP debacle on Friday, there's definitely potential for some further upside in the days ahead. Especially if US data continues to disappoint. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday will be closely watched, while FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be subject to even more scrutiny. 50 DMA near 1.1030 and January low at 1.1098 are the first strong resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: In the worst week since mid-January, the pair has lost nearly four cents (392 pips), while weekly range extended more than 450 pips. After it has broken post-NFP high in the early part of Monday's US session, the pair looked poised for a break above March high (1.10522) and continuation higher. That didn't happen and the pair reversed lower with gusto. The decline continued in a familiar fashion with shallow pullbacks, shedding 50 - 100 pips each day until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: There's ECB meeting on Wednesday, so the most likely scenario is that the pair will consolidate on Monday and Tuesday. Support is found at the monthly declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows) near 1.0550 and then at the March cycle-low (1.0462). In the event that the pair corrects to the upside, March 31 low should offer some resistance, before 20 DMA near 1.0850.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: It looked like the pair will challenge 1.0450 low that was set on March 13, but sharp rejection from 1.05 level on Monday was one of the first signs that it won't go that easily. On Tuesday, the sentiment was reversed after weaker than expected US Retail Sales report. It was an uptrend from there till the end of the week, but one with deep pullbacks which demonstrated that there's still two-way interest in the pair.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: In the week ahead, there will be plenty market moving events that could impact the pair: ZEW on Tuesday; Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs on Thursday; Ifo survey on Friday with Eurogroup Meetings to boot. The first strong resistance comes in a way of 50 DMA, which has contained the downtrend since May 2014. Daily close above it would open path to 1.1098 weekly resistance, but false break and continuation lower is just as likely.

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