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Dollar Up in Quiet Trading

JonSnow Posted 20 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #PLN #EUR\USD #GBP\USD
The US dollar is a bit up in a quiet and uneventful trading in the last 24 hours. USD\JPY went as high as 106.75 at the beginning of Asian trading session, and both euro and the pound have given some ground to the greenback.
I’m waiting for the volatility to pick up when London opens and hopefully we’ll some some spikes up on EUR\USD and GBP\USD charts – high enough to fill my orders. At this point in the contest I’m trying to be extra carefully, as I can probably get one of the top position wi…
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Blog 19/10: Sell USDPLN

Haynes6EU Posted 19 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #PLN #Usdpln
Hi Traders,
The weekly and daily chart of USDPLN shows clear down-trend. USD has recovered for several weeks and it seem that recovery process was stopped and USD will continue back to downtrend. I choose to sell USDPLN, let's see the daily chart:
Good luck to all traders
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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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EUR/PLN Remains in Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2454, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Multi Year
The near six years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in force. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2453. This is around 4 percent, a very small amount for several years of trading.
The vast majority of the past 6 years the pair has spent between 3.06 and 4.5800. Like we said above, it's currently trading at 4.2453, in the middle of the range still.
On our final chart above we are seeing that the…
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EUR/PLN Still in that Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2520, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Years #Range Trading #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5.5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2518. This is around 4.3 percent, a negligible amount for several years of trading in forex.
On the weekly chart above we see the multiple years range the pair has been stuck in. The high of this range is at 4.60 while the low is at 3.95. But these are only the price extremes. The majority of the time th…
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3054, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Nothing New for the Polish Zloty

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.4033, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
Some things never change and this seems to be the case for the EUR/PLN currency pair. First let's again take a look at the monthly chart. I've shared this chart in previous TAs to show just how range-bound this pair has been in the past few years. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4024. That's just above 1 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the second picture we see that trend…
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More of the Same for EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.4547, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a large range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4515, almost no change in prices for several years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since December of last year we've been trading in a tight range that fits inside the larger congestion area noted above. On our second chart b…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

So far one part of my forecast above is coming true, while the other is giving me mixed results. According to the second chart above, we said that on the daily chart every rally has been retraced.

This is what has happened in December, with the EUR/PLN dropping from the 4.5057 high to a low of 4.3824 yesterday.

We are currently quoted at 4.4035, around 1.1 percent below my targeted price. The first part of my forecast remains unfulfilled, so far. I will need more mean reversion, this time to the upside to bring me close to my 4.4547 forecast.

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EUR/PLN Still Inside Five-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2963, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #EU #Euro #Poland #50 Retracement #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2964, only 3.37% away. This is a negligible amount for four years and 9 months of trading.
On the lower time-frames things aren't looking great for momentum traders either. Notice how directionless ranges prevail here as well. Another reason why am I betting on the pair staying near the current price is t…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The EUR/PLN is now trading at 4.3095 (bid), a distance of only 0.31% from my target price at 4.2963.

The total monthly range in this pair has been 861 pips,with a high at 4.3020 and a low at 4.2585. While in pips this seems high, in percentage terms this is only 2 percent.

Price movements have range-bound as well. After we opened the month at 4.3020 first we fell a low of 4.2585, then rallied to a high of 4.3446, before falling back close to the opening price (now at 4.3095).

In short the month has been slow, with prices trading in a range that's inside the bigger range noted above.

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fxsurprise8 1 Nov.

Let's do another update and this time we'll add some charts as well. On the picture above we can see an updated version of our chart.

Notice how the monthly range during October fits neatly inside the larger congestion area this year. And that range is inside the 5-year congestion that started back in 2012.

With prices now quoted at 4.3123, only 0.37% away from my target , betting on prices staying range-bound is showing to be a good bet. There's still some time left in the contest and with the momentum during the past 24h tilting toward the downside, a more accurate forecast seems likely.

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fxsurprise8 2 Nov.

Time for a final update! According to the charts at 12:00 the pair was trading at 4.3143. This is 0.41% away from my 4.2963 forecast. Likely not good enough for 1st but depending on the accuracy of others, it could lend me a spot near the top.

See the chart above that demonstrates why my forecast worked so well. October is shown by a rectangle. Notice how the 2% range we had this month is within the bounds of the red lines.

The two red lines mark this year's range for EUR/PLN. And this year's range in within the congestion area that started back in 2012. This area is marked with black lines.

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